Associated Press photos Both Barack Obama and John McCain must focus on states that Bush won in 2004.
Posted on 06/05/2008 9:39:47 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Associated Press photos Both Barack Obama and John McCain must focus on states that Bush won in 2004.
In many states that President Bush captured in the 2004 election, Barack Obama has swelled the ranks of Democrats by the thousands, drawing record numbers of young people and African Americans to the polls.
But will this enthusiasm -- which propelled his victory Tuesday in the race for the Democratic nomination -- deliver enough of these states to Obama to win the presidency?
That question is on the minds of strategists plotting the Democratic Party's drive to retake the White House. In national polls, Obama runs about even with Republican John McCain, but he cannot win the 270 electoral votes he needs unless he picks up states that Bush won.
McCain, for his part, must hold all of Bush's states, or else carry some new ones to make up for any losses.
"Everybody's top priorities will be those 12 to 15 swing states that were close in 2004," said Charles Black, a senior McCain advisor.
For weeks, Obama and McCain have crossed paths in those states, with a particular emphasis on Florida. When South Dakota and Montana handed Obama the delegates needed to clinch the nomination Tuesday night, he did not celebrate in either state, but in Minnesota -- a state that is crucial for Democrats to hold.
Obama is running in a climate that strongly favors Democrats. Advisors say he is well-placed to expand the map of Democratic states to Colorado and Virginia, a pair of Bush states now more friendly to his party -- and might even add such GOP strongholds as Georgia.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
Interesting, two of the comments in the comment section are Hillary supporters voting McCain in Nov. One in Wisconsin.
The map favors McCain. He has a real shot at PA, MI and WI..maybe NH as they said.
Obama has little shot at FL, and I can’t see Ohio either.
VA and Missouri? Doubtful but not impossible for BHO.
Obama MIGHT snag CO because of liberal Boulderites and stuff...but he ain't winning the South.
The map will more likely look like this than what this guy is suggesting:
McCain will do surprisingly well in CT and MA due to the independents breaking for McCain over Obama, and also due to McCain getting most of the "Lieberman vote" in CT in addition to the 35% or so that would already vote Republican.
i really dont see MA going for BHO
still i do know some pretty pissed off dems that Hillary is not the nominee
Greg Craig: Obama's Next Thorn
A Defense Attorney....
I pray to God you are right.
I’m literally sick with worry that this treacherous crypto-traitor will get in the WH.
Not saying it’s a shoo in but it’s possible due to what you mentioned...also...read this article:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/can_mccain_win_massachusetts.html
Anything can happen at this point...but if people start to see Obama for what he is, coupled with pissed off Hillary voters supporting McCain, plus, McCain’s natural (if someone inexplicable) appeal to independents...we COULD be looking at a McCain landslide.
ROFL - That map is so full of dreams...
McCain winning in MA???
Thank you for the laugh.
Me too.
There is no way McCain, liberal as he is will win MA.
In MA, all you need to win is a “D” after your name. Now McCain would qualify as a D but since he has a R after his name on the ballot he has no chance.
This alone disqualifies the poll. Other than NH, there is no state north of Washington D.C. on the east coast that McCain has any chance in.
Well, at least we have each other to cling to, then.
I have a very, *very* bad feeling about all this.
It’s more likely than Obama winning GA...
And read post 7.
THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA
Those wild eyed people represent the millions of Americans raised in the government day-care and indoctrination centers we call public schools who did not have, or would not listen to, parents and others who tried to counterweight the garbage they heard at school...who have been raised on 60 second sound bite time spans and know no better.
You have other tens of millions on the dole who will vote for him regardless of position because he promises to keep pilfering the public largess for them.
Still othes of millions will vote for him simply because he is black.
Other millions will vote for him because they know exactly who he is and what he represents and agree with his anti-American positions.
The first three are all what is termed, useful idiots, a term coined by Lenin for the dupes he got to support him.
Against this it is left to us to educate, arouse, and amass the tens of millions of Americans who understand and hold fast to the foundational principles our constitutional republic rests upon...many of them the bitter, rural Americans clinging to their guns and religion that Obama so arrogantly spoke of.
I believe there are more than enough to see through this sham and travesty that Obama represents.
In reality, and IMHO, Barack Hussein Obama is the apex of the hate-America, domestic enemy in this country. His election as president would be the greatest coup any enemy has ever scored against this country and could easily lead to the worst, horrific disaster in our nation's history.
I’m in agreement with you on the South, but there’s no way in hell that McCain will win Connecticut, Massachussets, or New Jersey. That’s crazy talk.
McCain is not a liberal, because there are no liberals. Obama is not a conservative, because there are no conservatives.
There are only people more conservative or more liberal than others. McCain is more conservative than Obama, and Obama is more liberal than McCain.
MA and CT were not close enough to swing. NH was, and probably will.
In general, victory for McCain is about holding Ohio and Florida and grabbing Michigan to offset loss of Colorado. The reason Colorado is in play is because it is filled with FAR left wing extremists who voted Green or stayed home when Kerry and Gore ran. They will vote Obama this time and may swing the state blue.
That has to be offset with moderate “close” states where McCain’s independent moderate history will matter. Obama has far greater distance to travel to be thought “moderate” than McCain does — and in the end that will define the election, as long as McCain stays strictly on campaign crafted message.
Could you hook me up with your supplier, he is obviously supplying you with some real good stuff if you believe that map is reality. If you reverse the colors you probably have our best case scenario. The rock star vs the grumpy WalMart greeter, gee I wonder who wins that American Idol vote? This is going to look a lot like the last time we ran a Senator from Arizona as our candidate. O’Bama wins 40 states minimum.
We better really get out and support conservatives in the down ticket races. If we can get enough good people this time around maybe we can retake both houses in 2010. Either way hopefully we can have enough votes to keep President O’Bama from doing too much damage.
I was very surprised to see electoral-vote.com has moved CT into the barely Demo column. They reported a poll I had not heard before showing Obama ahead there by only 3. Might even have been from Rasmussen. Still I would be stunned if it were that close.
Mass.? No way McCain takes it. Maybe NH though I would be surprised considering it seems to be going as far to the left as VT. McCain’s only hope is to pick up MI, where he actually has been ahead, and hope that offsets losses of CO, IA, and NM. Of course he has to hold all the rest of the Bush states.
I'll post Momaw Nadon's Tradesports map as a counter. This is where investors think the votes will go.
The only real obstacle is the fundraising. People throw money at Obama like panties to Julio Iglesias.
Other than that, you have to remember a few things that throw things in McCain’s favor, strongly:
1. At least a portion of pissed off Hillary supporters, who are probably racially motivated, will stay home or vote McCain. Some will fall into line and vote for Obama, but we don’t know how many.
2. McCain is popular in Massachusetts. Dunno why, but he is. Mass isn’t as much a Democrat state as it is an Independent one that leans Democrat. Same for most of New England.
3. In OH, PA, and MI (and WV as well) there are a lot of Democrat-leaning blue collar whites who won’t vote for a black man, let alone one with Muslim roots. Trust me on this, I’m not saying it’s right of them to vote based on race, but if it saves our Republic from a Marxist, I’m all for it. Yes, folks, it will be racist DEMOCRATS that cost Obama the election.
4. Hispanics. Hispanics and Blacks aren’t know for being buddies as a group.
Those factors will tip the election strongly in McCain’s favor.
It’s either gonna be McCain in a squeaker, or McCain in a landslide...those are the only two choices on this test and one answer is going to be right.
I’m not so sure about that yet. Now in August I might be prepared to agree, but for now, I think he has a shot.
McCain’s rather popular in Massachusetts. Don’t ask me why, but he is. Same thing with NH.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.