Posted on 05/03/2008 8:25:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It is for many in the Obama camp an unthinkable thought. But politics is sometimes the art of adjusting today to what seemed inconceivable yesterday. I'm talking about the possibility — and the powerful logic — of a unity Obama-Clinton ticket for the Democrats.
I never thought I'd even consider it; but times change; politics shifts, and in the roiling flux of this American campaign, a bold unifying gesture could make the Democratic ticket — and an Obama presidency — unstoppable almost overnight. It's still highly unlikely, but so was JF Kennedy running with Lyndon Johnson and Ronald Reagan running with the first George Bush.
The rationale for a fusion ticket is the same as for any grand political compromise. Very few people in Washington believe that Barack Obama can now be denied the Democratic nomination. Even after the past month, as Hillary Clinton has hung in there, as the scandal about Jeremiah Wright (Obama's firebrand cleric) scandal has battered the post-racial Obama brand, and as white Reagan Democrats have proven resistant to a new young black freshman senator, Obama has actually increased his number of delegates. Clinton simply cannot overcome the edge he built up in February and March, however cruel his April turned out to be. And the superdelegates — who will ultimately decide -- have also been slowly trending his way.
The decision last week by the former Clintonite Democratic Party chairman, Joe Andrew, to switch from Clinton to Obama confirmed the super-delegate trend.
And the raw truth is: Clinton's victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania and persistence in states such as North Carolina and Indiana, which vote this Tuesday, have kept Obama from closing the deal definitively. Worse: the demographics seem to be hardening into a difficult dynamic for him. White working-class women — crucial to Democratic marginal states — remain resistant to his charms. Hispanics are also iffier than they should be. Somehow, the Clintons' brutal assault on his brand, aided and abetted by conservative media outlets, such as Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly, have managed to dent this unifier a little.
That, of course, is why so many in the Democratic party are furious at the Clintons. The only way Hillary can now win is by tearing down the Obama candidacy even further — a candidacy that has brought more new voters, more money and more enthusiasm into Democratic ranks than at any time since 1992. If she were somehow to persuade the superdelegates to pick her over the obvious favourite of primary voters, she would provoke an implosion in the party, brutal payback from young, black and independent Obama fans, and a real crisis at the Democratic convention.
So what is she up to and what is Obama to do about it? There are three main theories behind Clinton's refusal to acquiesce to mathematics: she simply cannot tolerate losing a nomination she believes she has a dynastic right to; she is trying to ensure that Obama loses in 2008 in order to run again herself in 2012; or she wants to be offered the vice-presidential spot on an Obama-led ticket. I'm beginning to suspect the last option is the most plausible, and it gives Obama a potential opening: why not give her what she wants? An Obama-Clinton ticket would certainly give the Democrats a massive sigh of relief — and perhaps some euphoria.
The conservative white voters that Clinton has amazingly managed to attract could be combined with the massive infusion of new young votes, internet money, and African-American enthusiasm to create a potential tsunami in the election. Instead of having to pick between the first black president and the first woman president, the Democrats could offer voters both: the first black president and first female vice-president. Worries about Obama's relative youth and lack of Washington experience would be allayed by the presence of the Clintons. The toxicity of the Clinton baggage could be balanced by the hope Obama has inspired.
The Clintons could be deployed to shore up support in some of the Reagan Democrat states, while Obama wins over enough independents to carry the Mountain West and the upper Midwest. California, Ohio, New York, Florida and Pennsylvania could be secured. The downside? They hate each other. Over this campaign, Obama's supporters, along with many others, have been taken aback by the raw, unprincipled bare-knuckle politics that the Clintons have unleashed against the greatest talent to emerge in national politics since Bill Clinton himself. Moreover, the core appeal of Obama has been that he isn't a Clinton; he hasn't capitulated to the zero-sum politics of Karl Rove, George W Bush's mastermind. His outreach to new and young and non-Democratic voters has been premised on an end to the kind of politics the Clintons represent. When I raised the idea of an Obama-Clinton ticket on my blog last week, Obama-supporting readers were outraged and offended. I can see why. I defer to nobody in my contempt and suspicion of the Clintons.
And yet I can also see that the new politics Obama represents has provoked a ferocious backlash from the established political class; and his weakness (as well as his appeal) as a candidate is his reluctance to engage in the kind of street-fighting that politics can sometimes — and must sometimes — become. By picking Clinton as a vice-president, he would be pulling a classic American manoeuvre — getting a surrogate to do the dirty pugilism of the campaign, while using his own extraordinary skills to provide a unifying and uplifting overall theme. Picking Clinton would also defuse genuine concerns among older voters that he is just too green to be entrusted with presidential power just yet.
Remember Kennedy-Johnson? They too loathed each other and cast extremely different shadows in American public life. But Kennedy put Johnson on his ticket in order to achieve exactly what Obama needs to achieve now: bringing more conservative, practically-minded voters into his camp. There are other figures who could do this for Obama — most obviously, the anti-war Reagan Democrat senator Jim Webb from Virginia. Webb also neutralizes McCain's veteran appeal to heartland voters. And Webb has a tough campaigning streak as well.But the hard reality is that the Democratic party is deeply divided and Webb cannot bring the losing faction with him.
The Clinton dynasty has lost to the new pretender, but it hasn't been defeated in one fell swoop. Dynasties rarely are. The old guard also has enough clout and enough support to threaten Obama with considerable collateral damage — if it wants to — and that's the message it is now clearly sending.
The old political adage that you should keep your friends close but your enemies closer therefore seems appropriate. Clinton will not be running for president in 2012 if she is vice-president in 2009. The same could not be said if she were consigned back to the Senate to lick her wounds and plot her future. If Obama wanted to flatter her even more, and keep her occupied, he could offer her the healthcare portfolio — allowing her a second chance to do what she so fatally failed to do 15 years ago. And if she turned him down, he could nonetheless say that at least he tried.
The biggest problem, of course, is Bill. He is an inveterate meddler, and thinks of Obama as his nemesis. Having a former president married to your vice-president could give Obama a huge headache as president. But what we've seen in this campaign is how resilient the Clintons are and how dangerous they will be to any Democratic president who isn't beholden to them. Better, perhaps, to co-opt them and bring them into the tent than to have them as dangerous dynastic rivals outside it.
There's also a way for Obama to explain this choice in a way that does not violate — and in fact strengthens — his core message. His model in this should be Abraham Lincoln. What Lincoln did, as Doris Kearns Goodwin explained in her brilliant book, "Team Of Rivals," was to bring his most bitter opponents into his cabinet in order to maintain national and party unity at a time of crisis. Obama — who is a green legislator from Illinois, just as Lincoln was — could signal to his own supporters in picking Clinton that he isn't capitulating to old politics, he is demonstrating his capacity to reach out and engage and co-opt his rivals and opponents. Done deftly, picking Clinton could even resonate with Obama's supporters as a statesmanlike gesture, a sign of the kind of reconciliation he wants to achieve at home and abroad and energize his own party for the fall. It is consonant with his core message: that he can unify the country in a way few other politicians can. It would even help heal the gulf that has opened up between the Clintons and black voters in this campaign. It's win-win all round.
I hesitate to propose this, but I do think it is now worth actively considering for the first time in this campaign. The test of a president is his ability to recognise his own weaknesses and adjust to them. If he can do that while strengthening his core message, and make his own election close to unstoppable, what would hold him back?
I heard Sullivan on some talk show the other day, Maybe Hewitt. He is so totally in love and lust with Obama he almost fainted. Really creepy.
They may own the justice department, but they don’t own Congress, who does the impeachment and removal.
And unfortunately, he did much damage to the country. Yet look at us! We continue down the same slippery slope like we're braindead! Just freakin' unbeliveable, like a nightmare becoming real.
Here’s my email to Andrew Sullivan:
“That’s a shame - because Obama clearly represents, whatever his faults, a different racial politics than that of Jackson, Sharpton and the past.” (that’s Andy’s quote. my response below)
and what are those “faults” you speak of? I’d like to know, Andrew. Really, ‘cause I haven’t seen much about that from you. And now you’re giving Democrats advice on how to heal the divide by bringing HILLARY to the VP slot?! Wow, have your priorities changed. I mean, your style hasn’t, but your priorities have. Also, after basically writing off Hillary as the devil (one of the few points of yours I still agree with these days), it seems worse than cynical for you to want to bring her to the fold, just to have your hero win the nomination. And what’s worse than cynical? I’ll give you a hint- it starts with “R” and ends with “ovian”.
One other thing, when your admiring reader Wrights that Obama “appeals to Republicans (like yourself)”, how in the world do you not correct him? You’re a lot things Andrew, some of them even good. But you are certainly no Republican these days. I think that’s one thing you and I can agree on, no?
If this were anyone other than the Clintons, I'd agree with you. But this is about Hillary, not the democrats. Once she has her foot in the door as VP, all bets are off.
I don't think she has enough pull with the Secret Service to have them look the other way when she suggests a walk in Ft. Marcy Park, but I think she owns enough low level bureaucrats at Justice to have them find whatever evidence she needs to start impeachment proceedings in the House. Owning enough congresscritters to make impeachment happen is just a matter of owning FBI files, also available from the Justice Dept.
When the Republicans went after Clinton, they went in with the evidence available to them, and proceeded according to the law under the Constitution. When Hillary went after Nixon, she went around the law. She re-wrote the rules to forbid Nixon's having an attorney to defend him. And she was only a low-level staffer at the time. Imagine what she'd be able to do with the network she has in place now.
That depends on the outcome of the House races this cycle. If the dems hold then House, all she needs to do is convince a majority of them to see things her way. That should be easy, given that FBI files will be easily available to her from Justice.
But you are forgetting that it takes a 2/3 majority to remove a sitting president. That means that the Republicans must agree that the crime Obama is accused of is serious enough to remove him from office.
Hillary could be hoping Obama will do the Nixon thing and resign rather than face impeachment. Personally, I think he'd go the Bill Clinton route and tough it out. Either way, he's damaged goods and she's the savior of the party.
I can't think of any other reason she'd want to share the ticket with Obama. Party unity means nothing to her if the Party isn't united behind her. I don't see her giving up gracefully and going back to the Senate. It's past time for her to be President. I think she'll be on that ticket one way or another.
the raw truth is: Clinton's victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania and persistence in states such as North Carolina and Indiana, which vote this Tuesday, have kept Obama from closing the deal definitively. Worse: the demographics seem to be hardening into a difficult dynamic for him. White working-class women -- crucial to Democratic marginal states -- remain resistant to his charms. Hispanics are also iffier than they should be. Somehow, the Clintons' brutal assault on his brand, aided and abetted by conservative media outlets, such as Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly, have managed to dent this unifier a little.my comment is, the joker who wrote that screed is oh-so-obviously a media shill for Obama. "Clintons' brutal assault" and "this unifier" -- ridiculous crap. Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.
ping
“I heard Sullivan on some talk show the other day, Maybe Hewitt. He is so totally in love and lust with Obama he almost fainted. Really creepy.”
Your comments seem to describe the out of the closet gay mediots and those still in the closet like Chrissie Matthews with the thrill up or in his leg.
Makes one wonder if Hussein is one of their own.
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