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Did not know that NC is republican territory. Could be much closer story with a messiah running. Obama previously was running ultra strong in the primary.

If Fred gets a chance to talk policy tomorrow, I just wish he would call McC out on cap n trade. Yeah, riiiggggghhhht.

Bush twice won North Carolina 56-43%. NC has not voted for a Dem since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

I don't think McCain can necessarily pencil North Carolina in. The last Rasmussen poll, which admittedly was from April 12 and taken before the Rev. Wright mess, had McCain and Obama tied up here. His ability to turn out the very substantial black vote here, as well as college town liberals, could pose a significant threat to McCain.

Also, NC is a conservative state, but not a Republican state. Though no Democrat Presidential candidate has carried NC since Carter in 1976, there are still more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans here. Any Republican who wants to win statewide in North Carolina has to win over conservative Reagan Democrats and Dixiecrats, who dominate the electorate east of I-95.

Republican Presidential candidates have been able to do so every time since 1980, but Republicans have performed abysmally in gubernatorial elections, largely because of a series of moderate candidates who were difficult to distinguish from moderate establishment Democrats like Jim Hunt and Mike Easley. When conservatives run against liberals in statewide elections, however, conservatives tend to win.

This, I think, is the number one reason Hillary was on the O'Reilly Factor the other day. She knows she has to win over conservative NC Democrats in order to have any chance of staying alive against Obama, and they were her intended audience that night. In November, while she does far more poorly against McCain here than Obama does in the polls, that could change if she some how succeeds in winning those Democrats over.

If Obama nonetheless pulls out a big win in NC despite the Wright mess, then it will show that the balance of power in the NC Democrat party has shifted to a newly energized black and college leftist vote. If Hillary pulls out an upset in NC and managed to make it to the nomination, then it will mean she's managed to win over the very Reagan Democrats who voted heavily against her husband in the 90s.

Either way, that will mean that McCain would be foolish to take NC for granted. Bashing the NC Republican Party, while a favorite sport among NC conservatives, is not going to help him. If the NC Republican base doesn't turn out for him, he's vulnerable to losing the state to the energized Obama bloc. If he lets Hillary appear to run to his right, he'll risk losing Reagan Democrats. Either way, he needs to tighten up his campaign quick, because while the Democrats are doing a good job hurting their chances in November, that doesn't mean they're just going to hand it to McCain.