Posted on 05/01/2008 6:07:17 AM PDT by kellynla
Unless the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has caused him more damage than is evident, it’s impossible to see how Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) can lose the popular vote, the delegate race or the Democratic nomination to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).
Specifically, I’ve calculated the possible popular vote in eight of the nine remaining primaries (excluding Guam), giving Clinton the benefit of every doubt, and can’t see how she gains more than 150,000 votes on Obama ��" not enough to catch him except in the most extreme circumstances.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Thanks.
Since you’re concerned, I could use a cup of coffee and a cinnamon roll.
:>)
Well 1 or 2 things happen:
What you suggest. Clinton Loses Primary, Superdelegates stick with the popular vote knowing full well Fauxbama cannot win and McCain becomes President.
or
Superdelegates ignore the popular vote, and give hillBilly the nomination and black democrats break from the party in agner and spite for the “selection not election” enough so that HillBilly has no chance to win and McCain becomes President.
I don’t see any scenario where either of these Dems can win the White House.
I think Mrs. Clinton, wife of the impeached ex president will do any thing to get elected. and as far as Michigan and Florida goes, John Edwards was also on the ballot, and I hear no mention of him getting any votes.. as I am sure he would of.and would of taken votes away from either of the two remaining candidates...even tho he dropped out later.. he came in second in Iowa..
“Well 1 or 2 things happen:
What you suggest. Clinton Loses Primary, Superdelegates stick with the popular vote knowing full well Fauxbama cannot win and McCain becomes President.
or
Superdelegates ignore the popular vote, and give hillBilly the nomination and black democrats break from the party in agner and spite for the “selection not election” enough so that HillBilly has no chance to win and McCain becomes President.
I don’t see any scenario where either of these Dems can win the White House.”
Bingo!
We have a winner.
I am unsure to what degree one can credit Operation Chaos for this result, but ever bit helps.
By taking this race all the way to the convention the Demos will find it very difficult to enter the fall in an organized/healed manner. Right now McCain is gearing up his organization, working on VP selection, refining his stump speech, doing all the things to get ready for the general.
If the convention turns into a free-for-all, or there are some serious hurt feelings along the way, then it is difficult to see how a Demo can win the general.
schu
1. The votes in Florida and Michigan. Though the delegates there do NOT count, the "popular vote" of the people ought to be considered, since their votes count in the general election--right?
IF I were McCain, I would be advertising in FL and MI right now, telling the voters that since the RAT party has disenfranchised them, that the GOP will gladly count them in our numbers. It's the RATS who are always blaming the GOP for disenfranchising voters. When we can throw something back in their face, it's a good day. Can you say hipocrites?
I would love to see the look on Pelosi and Reid's face when they heard the ads. Well.....maybe not Pelosi. I think her face is stuck on stupid and that expression will be there until she dies! LOL
Oops, make that hypocrites. I meant to change that before I posted it. lol...
I thinks the Rev Wrong Way Wright was supposed to be her miracle worker.
They count in a popular vote total.
The candidates aren't elected by direct popular vote.
The primaries in those two states were basically unofficial, the value of those votes means as much as a poll would.
If you want to count them in your version of the popular vote, I guess you can go ahead, but as far as the National Democratic Party is concerned, they aren't official votes. The state may have certified them as official as far as the state is concerned, but they don't make the rules for the national party.
I guess our whole argument is rather academic. The superdelegates are going to decide however they choose to decide. They are under no obligation to be swayed by anything but their own choice. If they feel the votes in Florida and Michigan are significant to them, then they are. If they decide they aren't then they aren't.
If counting the votes for Hillary in Michigan and Florida gives Hillary the lead in the popular vote, then I'm sure some superdelegates that vote for her will give that as a reason for doing so regardless of it it's true or not.
All I know is, I'm stocking up on popcorn for the Convention floor fight, which promises to be a real doozy. No need to tune in: I'm only about 60 miles Denver -- I'll just sit on my front porch and listen to the shouting from the comfort of home.
I also predict that if Fauxbama gets the nomination HillBilly will fall back to the NY state governorship.. (isn’t in interesting how that position is mired in controversy and scandal right now? Hmmmm...) and returns in 2012 virtually unapposed as the Dems nominee.
“My take is that about the only thing that he will take from Bush is:
see you at the signing “
The probability of Bush or McCain signing the bill is equal. zero.
the pro-amnesty crowd couldnt get the turkey out of the senate in 2006 nor 2007, nor will they in 2009 or beyond.
THEY LOST.
Why cant they do it down the road? because enforcement is *working*. Check out Oklahoma. As the fence goes up, and the towns get cleared out, people realize. We dont need a grand amnesty. that was a surrender. Instead, we can eliminate ilegal immigration the right way - border security, law enforcement, and ‘attrition’.
At some point, there will have to be a ‘grand fix’ to immigration, but anything that is ‘amnesty’ will be radioactive. Instead, they will need to get some worker visa increases so eliminating illegal immigration doesnt crater business, but it wont be open-ended.
McCain’s survival is the exception that makes the rule. candidates have gotten killed over their wrong position on immigration (Spitzer/Hillary for example). The new Democrats (blue dogs) coming in are decidedly wary of being tagged pro-amnesty and the GOP caucus has turned as well.
Take this as JMHO prognostication. I think the political tide is going out on amnesty and it wont come back. McCain himself has said as much.
“People who were whining last week that McCain should have gone after Obama hard over Wright should consider this. It is much more important that the Republicans have clean hands when Obama falls.”
If nothing else, the timing is a bit early to go hard after Obama. If the article is right, the door will close on Hillary in the June timeframe. Once all the votes are cast, the superdelegates will make their pick.
“All I know is, I’m stocking up on popcorn for the Convention floor fight, which promises to be a real doozy.”
Sorry, but I dont see that happening.
If Obama can claim a clear delegate and vote lead in June, then superdelegates will fall behind him and Hillary wont have a chance and give up. There is a small chance Hillary can get FL and MI to swing in there, but its small.
LOL ... I sure wish that could fix what ails me.
Regards from an ex-"Can-Do" Sea Bee.
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒE
That is 100% your own opinion, and I do not agree with it at all.
the pro-amnesty crowd couldnt get the turkey out of the senate in 2006 nor 2007, nor will they in 2009 or beyond.
THEY LOST.
Of course they lost. - They didn't have the votes. now they do, or will after November.
Why cant they do it down the road? because enforcement is *working*. - border security, law enforcement, and ‘attrition’.
Exactly what they do NOT want. - and there is a leftist agenda to follow, as well.
They want tens of millions of new democrat voters and they will get them.
McCain’s survival is the exception that makes the rule. candidates have gotten killed over their wrong position on immigration (Spitzer/Hillary for example). The new Democrats (blue dogs) coming in are decidedly wary of being tagged pro-amnesty and the GOP caucus has turned as well.
All of that will change next year.
We are going to have this battle again and again, and with a reduced number in both the Senate and House.
My take is that they will push it in the first 100 days if they have the votes to override a veto, if McCain would actually veto.
Judging by his record, I see nothing at all that is proof that he would.
Quite the contrary.
Thank you for your post. - bill
First 100 days? Maybe with Obama or Clinton, a la the 1993 tax hike ...
And Clinton and Obama are so wrong on it ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2010038/posts
... but *McCain has explicitly said he wont go this route until the wall is built and that is years away* ... this stuff is so radioactive I just dont see the Congress being able to pull that over on people or overriding McCain, or getting McCain to go back on his word on this.
2007 was their golden chance and they blew it.
AP Poll: Clinton leads McCain, doing better than Obama
(Rush Will get Hillary Elected President)
Associated Press (via ClariNet) | Monday, 28-Apr-2008 3:12PM EDT | Liz Sidoti
Posted on 04/28/2008 1:02:17 PM PDT by Behind Liberal Lines
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008244/posts
Advocates: Voter ID ruling may disenfranchise US voters
AP via CoCoTimes | 4/28/8 | DEBORAH HASTINGS AP National Writer
Posted on 04/28/2008 3:55:37 PM PDT by SmithL
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008342/posts
Wright’s wrong:
He’s under fire, not black church-
Pastor enjoys soaking up media spotlight
Chicago Sun-Times | 4-30-08 | RICHARD ROEPER
Posted on 04/30/2008 5:43:02 AM PDT by SJackson
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2009084/posts
The Pastor Casts a Shadow
(Rev. Wright goes to Washington to bury Obama)
The New York Times | 4/29/08 | BOB HERBERT
Posted on 04/29/2008 12:58:20 AM PDT by XR7
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008498/posts
Rev. Wright Stays in Spotlight, Possible Problem for Obama Camp
WSJonline | April 28, 2008 12:53 p.m. | SUZANNE SATALINE
Posted on 04/28/2008 1:41:33 PM PDT by Fred
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008259/posts
Wright Appearance Sparks More Rejection From Obama,
Recriminations By Critics
Foxnews.com | 29 April 2008
Posted on 04/28/2008 10:17:06 PM PDT by Aussie Dasher
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008481/posts
[snip] Obama told reporters while traveling in Wilmington, N.C. “He does not speak for me. He does not speak for the campaign and so he may make statements in the future that don’t reflect my values or concerns.” [end]
Former Democratic leader switches to Obama
(Joe Andrew, DNC Chairman 1999-2001) [superdelegate]
Associated Press (excerpt) | May 1, 2008 | Nedra Pickler
Posted on 05/01/2008 12:50:53 AM PDT by HAL9000
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2009579/posts
Obama opens a can of worms
(Barfer! Obama is an Uncle Tom for Denouncing Wright)
Chicago Sun-Times | 4/30/2008 | Mary Mitchell
Posted on 04/30/2008 1:40:36 PM PDT by mojito
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2009326/posts
-and, from the “Go Ahead, Burn Down Denver” desk-
Is Clinton in for the really long haul?
(No Dem nomination, she will run as an independent)
Radio News | 4/28/08
Posted on 04/28/2008 2:50:05 PM PDT by LdSentinal
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008307/posts
-regarding Hispanic voters in November-
Indicted Puerto Rico Governor Now Demands “Sovereignty” for the Island
(”Wag-the-Dog” Scenario)
NotiUno.com (Spanish-language news brief) | April 28, 2008
Posted on 04/28/2008 11:00:35 AM PDT by rrstar96
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2008172/posts
DNC coffers dry amid flood of Dem cash
Politico | 5/2/2008 | David Paul Kuhn
Posted on 05/02/2008 6:03:42 AM PDT by Soliton
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2010185/posts
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