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Clinton Can't Win Popular Vote Race Without a Miracle( Mort Kondracke )
realclearpolitics.com ^ | May 01, 2008 | Mort Kondracke

Posted on 05/01/2008 6:07:17 AM PDT by kellynla

Unless the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has caused him more damage than is evident, it’s impossible to see how Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) can lose the popular vote, the delegate race or the Democratic nomination to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Specifically, I’ve calculated the possible popular vote in eight of the nine remaining primaries (excluding Guam), giving Clinton the benefit of every doubt, and can’t see how she gains more than 150,000 votes on Obama ��" not enough to catch him except in the most extreme circumstances.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; clinton; democrats; election; kondracke; obama
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To: kellynla

She’s already ahead in the popular vote, if you count Michigan and Florida — which teh Dimmycraps know they are going to have to do.


41 posted on 05/01/2008 7:39:47 AM PDT by TBP
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To: xzins

Are you well?


42 posted on 05/01/2008 7:40:40 AM PDT by G.Mason (Duty, Honor, Country)
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To: TBP

again with the “if”...LOL
come on, get series...you can put a fork in Clinton...
she’s already running for 2012 at this point...


43 posted on 05/01/2008 7:45:15 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: All

BTW, when is Clinton up for reelection in NY???

anyone...anyone...Ferris? LOL


44 posted on 05/01/2008 7:49:10 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: Jay Howard Smith
Her best shot for the White House will be to try and oust McCain in 2012.

[tinfoil]

Perhaps McCain will put Cankles on his ticket and trounce Hussein in November.

President McCain then succumbs to cancer sometime in early 2011...

[/tinfoil]

45 posted on 05/01/2008 7:49:39 AM PDT by rock_lobsta (Not Your Ordinary Crustacean.)
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To: All
never mind...

she's up for reelection in 2012

interesting question...

Barring any upsets, does Clinton run for reelection of her Senate seat or for POTUS in 2012?

46 posted on 05/01/2008 7:54:17 AM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: Hoof Hearted

I’m not resurrecting anything.

People did go to the polls that day, and they did vote. Those votes belong to the persons they voted for.

I’m NOT talking about delegates.


47 posted on 05/01/2008 7:59:08 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: G.Mason

“Fit as a ruttin’ buck”


48 posted on 05/01/2008 8:00:25 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: ASA Vet
That fact is irrelevant. The MSM will spin it, and the idiot demonRAT voters will believe them.

I don't care about the idiot demonRAT voters. We have lost them. I care about the independent moderate voters. We want them to see this as a genuine problem with Obama, not as a Republican Dirty Trick.

49 posted on 05/01/2008 8:04:28 AM PDT by gridlock (Proud McCain Supporter since February 8, 2008.)
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To: xzins

They all agreed. clintin too. She thought this whole thing would be a cake walk. She found out differently. It’s HER problem...not his. Her arrogance had caught up with her big time.


50 posted on 05/01/2008 8:08:15 AM PDT by cubreporter
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To: LottieDah

No Clinton cheating but ....somehow I doubt Mort factored in the primary in China. I hear that Hillary is likely to win by a margin of several million in that one.

Howie will agree to let Michigan, Florida and China votes count.


51 posted on 05/01/2008 8:09:17 AM PDT by rod1 (uestion)
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To: surrey

Amennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn


52 posted on 05/01/2008 8:09:17 AM PDT by cubreporter
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To: xzins

They all agreed. They all agreed. They all agreed. hillllereee like always whines and cries about everything.


53 posted on 05/01/2008 8:09:55 AM PDT by cubreporter
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To: kellynla
Barring any upsets, does Clinton run for reelection of her Senate seat or for POTUS in 2012?

If Clinton wants to run for President in 2012, she can simply file paperwork for the NY Senate seat, and she will win in November. She does not have to run in New York, because she will win that seat, no matter what.

IIRC, Lieberman ran for his Senate Seat and VEEP in 2000.

54 posted on 05/01/2008 8:10:26 AM PDT by gridlock (Proud McCain Supporter since February 8, 2008.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Well the votes in those states would mean something if Obama had been on the ballot with Hillary (and not followed DNC guidelines). I am still amazed that Hillary catches no flack whatsoever for “remaining” on those ballot to run essentially unopposed.


55 posted on 05/01/2008 8:12:20 AM PDT by rod1 (uestion)
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To: cubreporter

One thing I have always admired about W is that he understands that when you have a snake underneath the heel of your boot, the proper course of action is to press down hard, and keep your foot down.


56 posted on 05/01/2008 8:13:40 AM PDT by gridlock (Proud McCain Supporter since February 8, 2008.)
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To: xzins
Read the article at post #24. It shows that “both” candidates were both openly and covertly campaigning in both states.

After it was no longer possible for Obama to get back on the ballot in Michigan, Hillary's campaign went to work campaigning there to try and make it seem that she haddn't abandoned them like Obama had, despite them both pledging not to campaign there.

Obama's campaign figured this out a bit slowly and tried to build some support there as well.

Hillary decided not to play by the rules, and Obama did damage control.

But, I’m talking about votes cast and you’re talking about delegates.

Folks can agree all they want to about who gets which delegate, but they cannot pretend that a vote was not cast when it actually was cast.

Well, you can argue that votes were cast, but the rules say those votes are meaningless, so not all the candidates were equally prepared to campaign there, and many voters chose not to vote because they were under the impression that the vote didn't count for anything.

You can guess how things would have turned out had it been a genuine vote that was supposed to count towards choosing the Democratic nominee, but it wasn't so all you are doing is guessing.

The party ruled that the votes didn't count before the primary. You can't change the rules after the fact. If Florida and Michigan want to hold valid presidential primaries, they could do that, but they have chosen not to do so because of the cost. That's their choice. But their invalid primaries shouldn't count.

They were not able to cancel the primary. They were only able to decree their decrees about delegates.

That's a ridicules attempt to create a distinction where there isn't one. As far as the Democratic National Party is concerned those primaries aren't official primaries. Their delegates aren't going to be seated because they weren't chosen according to party rules.

The invalid primaries they held were no more meaningful that a straw poll.

57 posted on 05/01/2008 8:14:07 AM PDT by untrained skeptic
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To: xzins
Just checking.


ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒE

58 posted on 05/01/2008 8:23:38 AM PDT by G.Mason (Duty, Honor, Country)
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To: untrained skeptic; cubreporter

The votes are only meaningless in terms of delegates. They are still votes.

They count in a popular vote total.

They could have voted by write-in for Oscar the Grouch. If so, Someplace, there should be a list of votes with one vote for Oscar the Grouch.


59 posted on 05/01/2008 8:24:22 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: gridlock

That’s my point exactly. Stop her now once and for all. She is no good for this country or our people. We don’t need them back again with their disrespectful behaviors, their scandals, their lies and whatever else. Let them go somewhere else ... NOT the White House. Obama will win the nomination and today he received the endorsement from a superdelage in Indiana. It’s on Drudge...an excellent article and I love how he says the clintin machine attack dogs will be after him. I also like how he did it...he didn’t call the clintins first. Good for him. Someone stood up with courage. Go Obama!!!


60 posted on 05/01/2008 8:26:02 AM PDT by cubreporter
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