Posted on 04/27/2008 6:21:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
IN THE PAST YEAR, I have spoken to almost 30 groups in Marin and Sonoma as resident political pundit.
I am inevitably asked to predict the presidential nominees and the winner in November.
Starting in early 2007, I made the same predictions that I make today. Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Sen. John McCain will be the next president. In the overwhelming Democratic North Bay, this generally is met with gasps of disagreement.
I always emphasize that I don't personally advocate this scenario. The questioners are asking for my prediction - not my preference.
I concluded early on that Clinton would prevail when she still had an aura of inevitability and was backed by the Democrats' Washington-based establishment. Despite an abysmal record of winning national elections, the party's powers-that-be are adept at delivering nominations. Their support of three presidential losers, Walter Mondale in 1984, Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, proves the point.
My bet on Clinton is based more on gut than brain.
Sen. Barack Obama does have an impressive delegate count. I just can't believe that the unsinkable Clinton will fail to achieve the goal of being the first woman presidential nominee of a major party. Note that I didn't say she would achieve the presidency. Clinton and her husband are a force unto themselves. Their endurance exhausts the Energizer Bunny. The downside is that their win-at-any-cost tactics make the Democratic nomination almost worthless.
That leads to my second conclusion. Arizona Sen. McCain will be victorious on Nov. 4. The heroic McCain is the only Republican with any hope of attracting independents and moderate Democrats. That's something that Republicans, facing annihilation after the unpopular Bush-Cheney era, desperately need. While I acknowledge questioning my sagacity in late 2007 during McCain's dark days, he ultimately vindicated my hunch.
McCain now faces a Democratic Party tearing itself apart. If the 1980 Jimmy Carter-Ted Kennedy primary contest taught us anything, it's that a party divided upon entering a national convention will lose. I acknowledge the economy has tanked, there's no way out of the Iraq fiasco and that public confidence is as low as the price of gas is high. Yet when it comes to losing presidential elections, the Democratic mantra is "Yes, I can."
In fighting for the top spot, Clinton not only has taken the luster out of the once-sparkling Obama, she has managed to amplify her already negative image. That will be fatal in the fall election.
McCain will win IF he gets back on his Straight Talk Express and distances himself from the befuddled Bush. While this will displease the political right, hatred of all things Clinton will keep them in the Arizonan's camp. McCain's problem is that he's off to a slow start by pandering to the shrinking GOP base. Perhaps wiser hands will steer him back to the middle after the Minneapolis convention.
What I had not predicted was Obama's rise. Nor did I ever expect that Hillary and Bill "the first black president" Clinton, would use every trick in Karl Rove's playbook, including the race card, to stop Obama's juggernaught. Team Clinton understands that Rove's tactics work, at least in the short run. Until March, my guess that Clinton would be the Democratic standard bearer and McCain president was qualified. If Obama managed to be the Democratic nominee, I concluded he would prevail over McCain.
My logic was that given a choice, the ever-optimistic American people would pick the best of the future, Obama, over the best of the past, McCain. Thanks to Clinton's blunt attacks and Obama's gaffes, the luster is off the Illinois senator who now apparently is running out of steam.
That the Democrats are self-destructing goes full circle in validating my prediction that McCain will be the next president of the United States.
Perfectly put.
You and I, many others have been hoping to see a monument to Conservatism errected on our soil. We have courted the same contractor for our adult lifetime. That contractor has taken our money and here is what has transpired.
We wanted to see a Colonial motiff adhered to. The contracting firm promised to deliver, said they were on our side. Wow, it was going to come to pass.
So when it came time to hire architects, they hired only those who had great knowledge of Russian architecture.
We have been fighting over every floor in this building. We wanted one thing, the contractors wanted another. The architects often said they were with us, but when the next floor was done, it remained true to the Russian theme.
Colonial never was the goal of these people. It never will be the theme of these people.
We can either find another team and go for it, or we can spend the rest of our lives building their dream monument and tell ourselves that is what we really wanted all along.
It isn’t what I wanted. Is it what you wanted?
Thank you.
I do not have an answer or direction. Throwing Communism at me is one thing, but empty ballot boxes doesn’t answer anything either.
If McCain wins, he will be indebted to Rush Limbaughh.
You have every right to differ with me. I still believe my example is quite accurate as to what we have experienced.
I do not think continuing to support the party who disagrees with us across the board, is the way to go.
I have come to the irrevocable conclusion, that we must seek to join elsewhere under new leadership.
That will be a tough pill to swallow for many people, so I don’t take offense that you disagree.
I appreciate the response.
Each superdelegate has his or her own self-interest to look to, and for many --most?-- of them, betraying Barack is not an option. Their decision on the choice of Clinton or Obama will follow them the rest of their political lives. 20 years from now it will still be a tag, and the idea of having that tag be marked Judas just isn't going to fly for them.
No matter what kind of arm-twisting Hillary does, I don't think that she's going to find enough superdelegates with the courage to do what needs to be done.
We are on the same side yet trapped in a game brought about by the media. I would guess 75% of the masses get their news at 6. Why McCain is the candidate is over my head, but there is no way I will sit idly by and let a Muslim take the White House.
If Hillary wins the nomination, I see a lot of Obama supporters staying home on election day feeling that their candidate was “robbed” of the nomination.
Well, as much as I disdain the RINOs that lost 2006 for the GOP, the economy was humming along when they were in power, and the price of gas was -what? - half of what it is now....
....and there is a great way out of the Iraq "fiasco" - WINNING, YOU AMERICA-HATING HALF-WITS!!! WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE DOING NOW!!!!
I believe that McCain will cave to his “friends” on the Left and be just as apt to pull them out as either Dim.
McInsane will pick either Lindsey Grahamcracker or Joe Lieberman as his VP. Maybe even his good friend Chappaquidick Teddy.
It’s already starting. Of all the issues to be defending, the head of the RNC just had a letter to the editor published in the WaPo defending McCain’s gas tax moratorium. As if this is the biggest issue of the day and not just political pandering.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/27/AR2008042701565.html
I’m sure we’ll see the RNC be real outspoken against the economic implications of McCain’s global warming plans. /s
I’m thinking he’ll pander for diversity and go for the female choice—Carly Fiorina or Christie Todd Whitman.
Any which way, I don’t see him choosing a conservative.
I didn’t really read anything here that anyone of us couldn’t have predicted.
Checkmate! A Hillary Move To The Right Would Capture The King And End The Game
self | 4/26/08 | levotb
Posted on 04/26/2008 2:44:14 PM PDT by levotb
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007437/posts
[Hillary has to move to the left to capture the Obama vote, so forget it; elections are won in the middle of the road, and McCain has that]
Voters will fall into (party) line come November
Boston Herald | April 27th, 2008 | Ann McFeatters
Posted on 04/27/2008 12:25:42 PM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007718/posts
“The issues are simply too critical for mainstream Democrats and mainstream Republicans to 1) throw away their vote or 2) sit out the election... The year will come when a third party rises in America and Democrats and Republicans seem tired and played out, no longer the powers to beat. But this is not that year.”
Rifts Mend, Unless Identity Politics Is a Different Stripe
New York Times | April 27th, 2008 | KATE PHILLIPS
Posted on 04/27/2008 11:32:07 AM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007692/posts
Clinton lobbies superdelegates after Pennsylvania win
My Way | April 25, 2008 | STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
Posted on 04/26/2008 7:18:06 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007309/posts
One Last Thing: Voting lines lead right to superdelegates
Philly.com | April 27th, 2008 | Jonathan V. Last
Posted on 04/27/2008 12:53:03 PM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007737/posts
“The superdelegates will determine the Democratic nomination. Neither candidate will capture enough pledged delegates to win without them... I have long believed that at the end of the day, the superdelegates will be swayed more by the popular vote count than by the pledged delegate count.”
Hillary Clinton risks rift in Democrats by ‘cheating’ black voters
Times On Line | April 27, 2008 | Sarah Baxter
Posted on 04/27/2008 6:48:51 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007614/posts
Hillary Clinton risks rift in Democrats by ‘cheating’ black voters
Timesonline.com | April 27th, 2008 | Sarah Baxter
Posted on 04/27/2008 12:06:28 PM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007706/posts
Dem: Party may ‘overturn will of people’
Baltimore Sun | April 26, 2008 | Mark Silva
Posted on 04/26/2008 11:11:29 AM PDT by kingattax
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007384/posts
Don’t Think Black Voters Won’t Vote for McCain
TheRoot | 4/27/08 | Keith Reed
Posted on 04/27/2008 7:27:48 AM PDT by XR7
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007624/posts
“Any Democratic honcho needing a lesson in the power of disaffected black voters need only Google ‘2002 and Clarence Mitchell IV.’”
Delegate challenges concerning Florida, Michigan to be heard
Google | April 26, 2008 | NEDRA PICKLER
Posted on 04/27/2008 8:32:39 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007638/posts
“Under the challenges, all superdelegates from both states would get to vote. The pledged delegates would only count for half votes.”
BIG HRC FUNDRAISER DEFECTS TO OBAMA
MSNBC.COM | April 25th, 2008 | Chuck Todd
Posted on 04/25/2008 5:23:16 PM PDT by The_Republican
One of thttp://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007140/posts
“Guerra-Mondragon’s defection could serve as a tipping point with some key Hispanic Democratic leaders that Obama is ready to start making a bigger effort to court Hispanics.”
Obama’s Senior Difficulty
Politico | 4-27-08 | David Paul Kuhn
Posted on 04/27/2008 6:09:36 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007833/posts
Desperately Seeking Street Cred (Dowd gives up on Obama)
New York Times | April 27, 2008 | MAUREEN DOWD
Posted on 04/27/2008 4:08:44 AM PDT by tlb
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007576/posts
Settling Scores (Eleanor Clift warns of Hillary payback)
Newsweek | Apr 25, 2008 | Eleanor Clift
Posted on 04/27/2008 8:23:04 AM PDT by tlb
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007634/posts
“If the Clintons get back into the White House, it will be retribution time, like the Corleone family consolidating power in ‘The Godfather’... Notables who abandoned her for Obama will get the Big Chill. ‘He’s dead to us,’ a Clinton aide was quoted saying of John Kerry, who along with Ted Kennedy was turned off by the perception of race baiting that led up to the South Carolina primary. A major donor, conflicted between the two candidates and apologetic over his backing of Obama, found Hillary less than sympathetic. ‘Too bad for you, because I’m going to win,’ she snapped... Conservative commentators Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough are openly rooting for her, and Tony Blankley, who first gained notoriety as Newt Gingrich’s spokesman, confessed somewhat sheepishly, ‘She’s almost beginning to appeal to me.’”
Superdelegate Stalemate Shows No Sign of Easing
New York Times | 4/26/08 | By LARRY ROHTER and CARL HULSE
Posted on 04/26/2008 1:12:46 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007241/posts
Stock In Popcorn Companies Must Be Skyrocketing
A Chequer-Board of Days and Nights | April 27, 2008 | Pejman Yousefzadeh
Posted on 04/27/2008 9:05:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007875/posts
I’ll vote McCain because I cannot even contemplate either of the possible Dem candidates as CinC, let alone potential second amendment issues and the other lefty causes.
Surely the general electorate, who are said to not pay attention until after Labor Day, will wake up and see that BO is the most liberal Senator etc, for starters ?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.