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Why McCain will be the next U.S. president (This from a leftie in Marin County)
The Marin Independent Journal ^ | April 27, 2008 | Dick Spotswood

Posted on 04/27/2008 6:21:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

IN THE PAST YEAR, I have spoken to almost 30 groups in Marin and Sonoma as resident political pundit.

I am inevitably asked to predict the presidential nominees and the winner in November.

Starting in early 2007, I made the same predictions that I make today. Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Sen. John McCain will be the next president. In the overwhelming Democratic North Bay, this generally is met with gasps of disagreement.

I always emphasize that I don't personally advocate this scenario. The questioners are asking for my prediction - not my preference.

I concluded early on that Clinton would prevail when she still had an aura of inevitability and was backed by the Democrats' Washington-based establishment. Despite an abysmal record of winning national elections, the party's powers-that-be are adept at delivering nominations. Their support of three presidential losers, Walter Mondale in 1984, Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, proves the point.

My bet on Clinton is based more on gut than brain.

Sen. Barack Obama does have an impressive delegate count. I just can't believe that the unsinkable Clinton will fail to achieve the goal of being the first woman presidential nominee of a major party. Note that I didn't say she would achieve the presidency. Clinton and her husband are a force unto themselves. Their endurance exhausts the Energizer Bunny. The downside is that their win-at-any-cost tactics make the Democratic nomination almost worthless.

That leads to my second conclusion. Arizona Sen. McCain will be victorious on Nov. 4. The heroic McCain is the only Republican with any hope of attracting independents and moderate Democrats. That's something that Republicans, facing annihilation after the unpopular Bush-Cheney era, desperately need. While I acknowledge questioning my sagacity in late 2007 during McCain's dark days, he ultimately vindicated my hunch.

McCain now faces a Democratic Party tearing itself apart. If the 1980 Jimmy Carter-Ted Kennedy primary contest taught us anything, it's that a party divided upon entering a national convention will lose. I acknowledge the economy has tanked, there's no way out of the Iraq fiasco and that public confidence is as low as the price of gas is high. Yet when it comes to losing presidential elections, the Democratic mantra is "Yes, I can."

In fighting for the top spot, Clinton not only has taken the luster out of the once-sparkling Obama, she has managed to amplify her already negative image. That will be fatal in the fall election.

McCain will win IF he gets back on his Straight Talk Express and distances himself from the befuddled Bush. While this will displease the political right, hatred of all things Clinton will keep them in the Arizonan's camp. McCain's problem is that he's off to a slow start by pandering to the shrinking GOP base. Perhaps wiser hands will steer him back to the middle after the Minneapolis convention.

What I had not predicted was Obama's rise. Nor did I ever expect that Hillary and Bill "the first black president" Clinton, would use every trick in Karl Rove's playbook, including the race card, to stop Obama's juggernaught. Team Clinton understands that Rove's tactics work, at least in the short run. Until March, my guess that Clinton would be the Democratic standard bearer and McCain president was qualified. If Obama managed to be the Democratic nominee, I concluded he would prevail over McCain.

My logic was that given a choice, the ever-optimistic American people would pick the best of the future, Obama, over the best of the past, McCain. Thanks to Clinton's blunt attacks and Obama's gaffes, the luster is off the Illinois senator who now apparently is running out of steam.

That the Democrats are self-destructing goes full circle in validating my prediction that McCain will be the next president of the United States.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; ca2008; elections; hillary; independentvote; mccain; obama; rino
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To: Mobile Vulgus

Perfectly put.


41 posted on 04/27/2008 7:49:47 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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To: eyedigress

You and I, many others have been hoping to see a monument to Conservatism errected on our soil. We have courted the same contractor for our adult lifetime. That contractor has taken our money and here is what has transpired.

We wanted to see a Colonial motiff adhered to. The contracting firm promised to deliver, said they were on our side. Wow, it was going to come to pass.

So when it came time to hire architects, they hired only those who had great knowledge of Russian architecture.

We have been fighting over every floor in this building. We wanted one thing, the contractors wanted another. The architects often said they were with us, but when the next floor was done, it remained true to the Russian theme.

Colonial never was the goal of these people. It never will be the theme of these people.

We can either find another team and go for it, or we can spend the rest of our lives building their dream monument and tell ourselves that is what we really wanted all along.

It isn’t what I wanted. Is it what you wanted?


42 posted on 04/27/2008 7:50:42 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (McCain is a poison pill. Accept it! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2006492/posts)
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To: Shady

Thank you.


43 posted on 04/27/2008 7:54:08 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (McCain is a poison pill. Accept it! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2006492/posts)
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To: DoughtyOne

I do not have an answer or direction. Throwing Communism at me is one thing, but empty ballot boxes doesn’t answer anything either.


44 posted on 04/27/2008 7:55:48 PM PDT by eyedigress (If you aren't voting who cares about your opinion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
McCain now faces a Democratic Party tearing itself apart

If McCain wins, he will be indebted to Rush Limbaughh.

45 posted on 04/27/2008 7:58:07 PM PDT by upsdriver (My kingdom for an acceptable presidential candidate!!)
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To: eyedigress

You have every right to differ with me. I still believe my example is quite accurate as to what we have experienced.

I do not think continuing to support the party who disagrees with us across the board, is the way to go.

I have come to the irrevocable conclusion, that we must seek to join elsewhere under new leadership.

That will be a tough pill to swallow for many people, so I don’t take offense that you disagree.

I appreciate the response.


46 posted on 04/27/2008 8:02:21 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (McCain is a poison pill. Accept it! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2006492/posts)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I have to disagree here. I'll quote Hugh Hewitt:

No matter what kind of arm-twisting Hillary does, I don't think that she's going to find enough superdelegates with the courage to do what needs to be done.

47 posted on 04/27/2008 8:03:40 PM PDT by denydenydeny (Expel the priest and you don't inaugurate the age of reason, you get the witch doctor--Paul Johnson)
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To: DoughtyOne

We are on the same side yet trapped in a game brought about by the media. I would guess 75% of the masses get their news at 6. Why McCain is the candidate is over my head, but there is no way I will sit idly by and let a Muslim take the White House.


48 posted on 04/27/2008 8:09:15 PM PDT by eyedigress (If you aren't voting who cares about your opinion.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Hillary wins the nomination, I see a lot of Obama supporters staying home on election day feeling that their candidate was “robbed” of the nomination.


49 posted on 04/27/2008 8:28:50 PM PDT by The Great RJ ("Mir we bleiwen wat mir sin" or "We want to remain what we are." ..Luxembourg motto)
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To: johna61
It won’t happen.Sorry Juan McPain.

I still think that, short of McCain having some sort of nuclear meltdown, he will win the presidency in a walk, even if a sizeable portion of the conservative base does not vote for him. Why? Because a whole lot of Democrats are going to chicken out when it comes to pulling the lever for Hillary or Obama. Their candidates suck worse than ours does. I honestly can't see too many of the blue-collar Democrat types pulling the lever for Hillary under any circumstances, and after the various proofs of anti-white racism on Hussein's part, I don't think they could do it for him either.

I'm almost tempted to sit outside the polling place on election day and dare the Democrats to vote for Hillary. I think they'll chicken out and vote Nader, or not at all.
50 posted on 04/27/2008 8:33:47 PM PDT by fr_freak (So foul a sky clears not without a storm.)
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To: eyedigress
I don't fault you for that policy either.  This isn't an easy decision, even though you may think it is from your point of view.

I'm not going to try to strong-arm you into joining folks that agree with me.

If you have already seen the following, ignore it.  I've posted it on the forum a number of times over the last three or four days.

The last comment is obviously directed at folks who disagree with me, but I don't want you to take it personally.  It wasn't intended that way here.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Senator John McCain wants to be the figure-head of Conservatism.  Okay, lets think that out...

John McCain becomes President.  He's still the same old John McCain.

The RNC backs his liberal policies to maintain a position of power
The Republicans in Congress back his polices to maintain access to the White House
Republican candidates for Congressional seats move to the left, since John McCain proved that moving to the left assures
RNC support  and
votes
The Republican party leadership at the state level moves left as McCain and the RNC demand it
Republican candidates at the state level move to the left, since John McCain proved that moving to the left assures Republican support and votes
Republican Conservative office holders across the nation will be silenced
Apologists on Conservative forums across this nation defend McCain against the few Conservatives who are left, and attack them there (forums move left)
Last but not least, the Democrats move even farther left to differentiate themselves from McCain

Who writes Conservative bills and rams them through state or federal government after that?

Who talks about Conservatism from a position of power?  Who takes the chance to disagree with McCain on anything?

Under a John McCain Presidency, Conservatism ceases to become a movement, and becomes a theory.  It will no longer be practiced by enough politicians to be viable.

Under leftist McCain, there is no functional opposition.  Promoting leftist policy, it all passes without opposition, nobody objects to the liberal policies
Under leftist Hillary or Barack, there is not only a functional opposition, it grows by leaps and bounds in objection to their policies

We saw what a one party system did to Arkansas under Clinton.  It was terrible.  Now we want to install that in our federal government, leftists one and all.

No thanks.  Color me dumb, but I'm not voting to turn the U.S. into 1980s Arkansas.

LINK: Welcome to McCain's impact on the Republican National Committee, it's happening
LINK: Welcome to McCain's impact on future candidates, it's being advocated
LINK: Welcome to McCain's impact on State level Republican party leadership, it's happening
LINK: Welcome to McCain's impact on Republican Conservative office holder voices, it's happening
LINK: Welcome to McCain's impact on Conservative forums, it's happening

Folks, you either wake the hell up, or doom conservatism to oblivion.  After November the 4th, it's too late.  You will have silenced Conservatism in our nation for four or eight years, and quite possibly forever.

51 posted on 04/27/2008 8:53:48 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (McCain is a poison pill. Accept it! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2006492/posts)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I acknowledge the economy has tanked, there's no way out of the Iraq fiasco and that public confidence is as low as the price of gas is high.

Well, as much as I disdain the RINOs that lost 2006 for the GOP, the economy was humming along when they were in power, and the price of gas was -what? - half of what it is now....

....and there is a great way out of the Iraq "fiasco" - WINNING, YOU AMERICA-HATING HALF-WITS!!! WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE DOING NOW!!!!

52 posted on 04/27/2008 8:58:17 PM PDT by Yossarian (Everyday, somewhere on the globe, somebody is pushing the frontier of stupidity...)
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To: eyedigress

I believe that McCain will cave to his “friends” on the Left and be just as apt to pull them out as either Dim.


53 posted on 04/27/2008 8:58:18 PM PDT by Ingtar (Haley Barbour 2012, Because he has experience in Disaster Recovery. - ejonesie22)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

McInsane will pick either Lindsey Grahamcracker or Joe Lieberman as his VP. Maybe even his good friend Chappaquidick Teddy.


54 posted on 04/27/2008 9:10:30 PM PDT by holyscroller (A wise man's heart directs him toward the right, but the foolish man's heart directs him to the left)
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To: DoughtyOne

It’s already starting. Of all the issues to be defending, the head of the RNC just had a letter to the editor published in the WaPo defending McCain’s gas tax moratorium. As if this is the biggest issue of the day and not just political pandering.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/27/AR2008042701565.html

I’m sure we’ll see the RNC be real outspoken against the economic implications of McCain’s global warming plans. /s


55 posted on 04/27/2008 9:46:30 PM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: holyscroller

I’m thinking he’ll pander for diversity and go for the female choice—Carly Fiorina or Christie Todd Whitman.
Any which way, I don’t see him choosing a conservative.


56 posted on 04/27/2008 9:48:31 PM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I didn’t really read anything here that anyone of us couldn’t have predicted.


57 posted on 04/27/2008 9:52:57 PM PDT by garylmoore (Faith is the assurance of things unseen.)
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Checkmate! A Hillary Move To The Right Would Capture The King And End The Game
self | 4/26/08 | levotb
Posted on 04/26/2008 2:44:14 PM PDT by levotb
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007437/posts

[Hillary has to move to the left to capture the Obama vote, so forget it; elections are won in the middle of the road, and McCain has that]

Voters will fall into (party) line come November
Boston Herald | April 27th, 2008 | Ann McFeatters
Posted on 04/27/2008 12:25:42 PM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007718/posts

“The issues are simply too critical for mainstream Democrats and mainstream Republicans to 1) throw away their vote or 2) sit out the election... The year will come when a third party rises in America and Democrats and Republicans seem tired and played out, no longer the powers to beat. But this is not that year.”

Rifts Mend, Unless Identity Politics Is a Different Stripe
New York Times | April 27th, 2008 | KATE PHILLIPS
Posted on 04/27/2008 11:32:07 AM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007692/posts

Clinton lobbies superdelegates after Pennsylvania win
My Way | April 25, 2008 | STEPHEN OHLEMACHER
Posted on 04/26/2008 7:18:06 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007309/posts

One Last Thing: Voting lines lead right to superdelegates
Philly.com | April 27th, 2008 | Jonathan V. Last
Posted on 04/27/2008 12:53:03 PM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007737/posts

“The superdelegates will determine the Democratic nomination. Neither candidate will capture enough pledged delegates to win without them... I have long believed that at the end of the day, the superdelegates will be swayed more by the popular vote count than by the pledged delegate count.”

Hillary Clinton risks rift in Democrats by ‘cheating’ black voters
Times On Line | April 27, 2008 | Sarah Baxter
Posted on 04/27/2008 6:48:51 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007614/posts

Hillary Clinton risks rift in Democrats by ‘cheating’ black voters
Timesonline.com | April 27th, 2008 | Sarah Baxter
Posted on 04/27/2008 12:06:28 PM PDT by The_Republican
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007706/posts

Dem: Party may ‘overturn will of people’
Baltimore Sun | April 26, 2008 | Mark Silva
Posted on 04/26/2008 11:11:29 AM PDT by kingattax
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007384/posts

Don’t Think Black Voters Won’t Vote for McCain
TheRoot | 4/27/08 | Keith Reed
Posted on 04/27/2008 7:27:48 AM PDT by XR7
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007624/posts

“Any Democratic honcho needing a lesson in the power of disaffected black voters need only Google ‘2002 and Clarence Mitchell IV.’”

Delegate challenges concerning Florida, Michigan to be heard
Google | April 26, 2008 | NEDRA PICKLER
Posted on 04/27/2008 8:32:39 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007638/posts

“Under the challenges, all superdelegates from both states would get to vote. The pledged delegates would only count for half votes.”

BIG HRC FUNDRAISER DEFECTS TO OBAMA
MSNBC.COM | April 25th, 2008 | Chuck Todd
Posted on 04/25/2008 5:23:16 PM PDT by The_Republican
One of thttp://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007140/posts

“Guerra-Mondragon’s defection could serve as a tipping point with some key Hispanic Democratic leaders that Obama is ready to start making a bigger effort to court Hispanics.”

Obama’s Senior Difficulty
Politico | 4-27-08 | David Paul Kuhn
Posted on 04/27/2008 6:09:36 PM PDT by Darren McCarty
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007833/posts

Desperately Seeking Street Cred (Dowd gives up on Obama)
New York Times | April 27, 2008 | MAUREEN DOWD
Posted on 04/27/2008 4:08:44 AM PDT by tlb
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007576/posts

Settling Scores (Eleanor Clift warns of Hillary payback)
Newsweek | Apr 25, 2008 | Eleanor Clift
Posted on 04/27/2008 8:23:04 AM PDT by tlb
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007634/posts

“If the Clintons get back into the White House, it will be retribution time, like the Corleone family consolidating power in ‘The Godfather’... Notables who abandoned her for Obama will get the Big Chill. ‘He’s dead to us,’ a Clinton aide was quoted saying of John Kerry, who along with Ted Kennedy was turned off by the perception of race baiting that led up to the South Carolina primary. A major donor, conflicted between the two candidates and apologetic over his backing of Obama, found Hillary less than sympathetic. ‘Too bad for you, because I’m going to win,’ she snapped... Conservative commentators Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough are openly rooting for her, and Tony Blankley, who first gained notoriety as Newt Gingrich’s spokesman, confessed somewhat sheepishly, ‘She’s almost beginning to appeal to me.’”

Superdelegate Stalemate Shows No Sign of Easing
New York Times | 4/26/08 | By LARRY ROHTER and CARL HULSE
Posted on 04/26/2008 1:12:46 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007241/posts

Stock In Popcorn Companies Must Be Skyrocketing
A Chequer-Board of Days and Nights | April 27, 2008 | Pejman Yousefzadeh
Posted on 04/27/2008 9:05:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2007875/posts


58 posted on 04/27/2008 10:25:48 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_____________________Profile updated Saturday, March 29, 2008)
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To: DoughtyOne

I’ll vote McCain because I cannot even contemplate either of the possible Dem candidates as CinC, let alone potential second amendment issues and the other lefty causes.

Surely the general electorate, who are said to not pay attention until after Labor Day, will wake up and see that BO is the most liberal Senator etc, for starters ?


59 posted on 04/27/2008 10:42:31 PM PDT by 1066AD
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Cross linking...

McCain: OK, Rev. Wright Is An Issue, After All

60 posted on 04/27/2008 11:13:40 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (No Burkas for my Grandaughters!)
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