To survive Hillary has to bury Obama in Indiana, BUT in Indiana Independents can vote in the primary unlike Democrats only in Pennsylvania. Hillary does not do well with Independents. Also Hillary is NOT going to win North Carolina.
I agree with all of that, which is why I'm rooting on Hillary from the peanut gallery. She won't win the Dem nomination, but she can further weaken Obama, to McCain's ultimate benefit.
The media rarely explain why Obama will win the Dem primary in NC: vast numbers of white voters have left the Dems for the GOP. So nearly half of the remaining registered Dems in NC are black, and black Dems will vote 90%+ for Obama, while Clinton's margin among white Dems will be far smaller. Obama's NC Primary win won't mean much in November.
HillBilly will not win the pledge delegate count... which means the Superdelegates will SELECT (selected not elected) HillBilly over Fauxbama, and create chaos for the D in the general.
Fauxbama cannot win a general election in fact the only reason he’s around at all is a confluence of 2 primary things... 1)Anti-Hillary sentiment within the democratic faithful.. yes a lot of Dems don’t like or want her. 2) She’s run a wretchedly bad campaign.
Fauxbama has been able to capitalize on the first, and her ineptitude in the second is why he’s still around.
However due to the proportional delgate system the dems use, she cannot take the lead before the convention.
If the superdelegates pick Fauxbama, they assure themsleves a most completely humiliating loss in November. If they pick HillBilly, they assure a fissure in the party that will certainly cost them November. Though HillBilly is more of a threat to win in Nov than Fauxbama.. the selecting of her as the nominee after she loses the pledge delegates will guarantee the black community will backlash and either stay home in big enough numbers, or just out and out riot in the streets. And no national Democrat can win without getting 90%+ of the black vote.
The way things are looking right now... I see no way for either of these 2 to seriously have a chance at winning. Should the situation on the ground in IRAQ change significantly then perhaps the anti-war argument may be able to coalesque enough to pull a victory for the D’s.. but outside of that or something similar, I just don’t see it happening.