I agree with your analysis. There’s every indication that George W. Bush will get his way in support of gun-control regulations.
I am shocked...shocked, I tell you...that FReepers aren’t whining about how foreign law is being used to support the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, though. :-)
Well, there is another issue, and that issue is the question of enforceability.
It is often commented on that gun laws only effect the law abiding, that sort of thing.
But let’s be honest. There have been cases where violent convicted felons were caught after their release and found to have guns. So it does sometimes work.
But if we get 2. as an outcome, then THE TYPE OF RESTRICTIONS that people are talking about would no longer be allowed... no more blanket bans.
And that, to me, would seem to be a step in the right direction.
So while no restrictions at all is the most easily enforceable choice, a “reasonable restrictions” clause is only slightly more difficult to enforce.
Now, if they were to go with 1, then they better have 400 million armed Chinese guys in boats off the coast ready to come in and go door to door.
They know that. They’re not fools.