Posted on 03/09/2008 7:17:08 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
PARIS (AFP) - "The sea was driven back, and its waters flowed away to such an extent that the deep sea bed was laid bare and many kinds of sea creatures could be seen," wrote Roman historian Ammianus Marcellus, awed at a tsunami that struck the then-thriving port of Alexandria in 365 AD.
"Huge masses of water flowed back when least expected, and now overwhelmed and killed many thousands of people... Some great ships were hurled by the fury of the waves onto the rooftops, and others were thrown up to two miles (three kilometres) from the shore."
Ancient documents show the great waves of July 21, 365 AD claimed lives from Greece, Sicily and Alexandria in Egypt to modern-day Dubrovnik in the Adriatic.
Swamped by sea water, rich Nile delta farmland was abandoned and hilltop towns became ghost-like, inhabited only by hermits.
The tsunami was generated by a massive quake that occurred under the western tip of the Greek island of Crete, experts believe.
Until now, the main thinking has been that this quake -- as in the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 -- occurred in a so-called subduction zone.
A subduction zone is where two of the Earth's plates meet. One plate rides over another plate which is gliding downward at an angle into the planet's mantle.
Subduction zones usually have measurable creep, of say a few centimetres (inches) a year. But as the rock becomes brittle and deformed at greater depths, these zones can also deliver titanic quakes, displacing so much land that, when the slippage occurs on the ocean floor, a killer wave is generated.
The 365 AD quake occurred at a point on the 500-kilometre (300-mile) -long Hellenic subduction zone, which snakes along the Mediterranean floor in a semi-circle from southwestern Turkey to western Greece.
Researchers in Britain have taken a fresh look at this event and have come up with some worrying news.
University of Cambridge professor Beth Shaw carried out a computer simulation of the quake, based especially on fieldwork in Crete where the push forced up land by as much as 10 metres (32.5 feet).
They estimate the quake to have been 8.3-8.5 magnitude and that its land displacement -- of 20 metres (65 feet) on average -- puts it in the same category as the 9.3 temblor that occurred off Sumatra in 2004.
They conclude the slippage occurred along 100 kilometres (about 60 miles) on a previously unidentified fault that lies close to the surface, just above the subduction zone.
The quake happened at a depth of around 45 kilometres (30 miles) -- around 30 kilometres (20 miles) closer to the surface than would have been likely if the slip had occurred on the subduction fault itself.
After the 365 AD quake, the fault is likely to remain quiet for around 5,000 years.
But if the tectonic structure along the rest of the Hellenic subduction zone is similar, a tsunami-generating quake could strike the eastern Mediterranean in roughly 800 years, the scientists estimate.
The last tsunami to hit the eastern Mediterranean occurred on August 8, 1303. According to research published in 2006, a quake off Crete of about 7.8 magnitude hit Alexandria 40 minutes later with a wave nine metres (29.25 feet) high.
"That there has been only one other such event... in the past 1,650 years should focus our attention on the modern-day tsunami hazard in the eastern Mediterranean," the new study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, warns.
"Repetition of such an event would have catastrophic consequences for today's densely-populated Mediterranean coastal regions."
The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) is setting up a tsunami alert system for the Mediterranean as part of a global network established after the 2004 Indian Ocean disaster.
And what would they do about it if they were paying attention?
Carolyn
Global warming will bring the Atlantic coast to your front door.
And the Pacific coast to your back door.
later
A 16-story wave. Like something out of a scifi movie. My office is 10 stories up. As I look down, it's hard to imagine that much water.
How about sit and worry, that'll fix it!
Wasn’t California suppose to fall into the ocean? Would this cause a sizeable Tsunami or just taint the water supplies?
“Global warming will bring the Atlantic coast to your front door.
And the Pacific coast to your back door.”
Darn! Last year the local newspaper had a headline that claimed Berea, KY (a town about 30 miles south of here), will be the safest place to head to, if the world ends in 2012.
I had a friend who made Shaker furniture in Berea. My sister is in Lexington. Maybe I should think of getting a plot of land down there, just in case. :-)
Hope this doesn’t happen to Gaza and wash everybody out to sea. That would be tragic.
ok I could have been hit by a camel....
As long as you’re not in Naples you should be OK.
I also live in the panhandle. If your property taxes are low, it’s because of one of two things...or both.
You either have a crap home, or you’ve been protected by the Florida property tax welfare system, called “Save Our Homes,” which is nothing more than an organized way for long term residents to transfer much of their share of the property tax burden onto the renters, those with second homes in FL, and new FL residents.
Florida’s economy will suffer badly until they throw that unfair and unconstitutional law out and replace it with a property tax system that treats all citizens equally.
Young high school and college grads have little if any chance of being able to enjoy the “American Dream” if they remain residents of Florida.
By the way, I suggest that if you truthfully believe that property taxes are low in the FL panhandle that you pull up the Okaloosa County assessor's web page and take a look at the property taxes paid for some of those 3,000 sq/foot waterfront homes purchased 15-20 years ago in Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Valporaiso, and compare what those residents are paying in property taxes to someone who owns a similar sized home that purchased it in 2005 or 2006.
Look at some of those nice early ‘80s homes along the waterfront on Bayshore in Niceville that are worth upwards of $1.5-$2Million but are paying property taxes on a an assessed value of less than $400K. Then look at any off-water home in Bluewater Bay, Swift Creek, Rocky Bayou Country Club Estates, or across the bridge in Destin and Sandestin that was purchased in 2005 or 2006. I can show you instances where homes on the water in Okaloosa county are taxed on an appraised value that's less than 1/4 of their current actual value, while many homes in the newer subdivisions I mentioned that were purchased in the last few years are taxed at 100% of current-day value or more.
The reason you use the word “average” to apply it to the tax level is that you have to average the thousands of residents who paying the property taxes for hundreds of thousands of long-term FL homeowners who turned their property tax system into another form of wealth redistribution.
Florida is NOT a low tax state for anyone thinking of renting or moving her from out of state, or anyone who made the mistake of moving to Florida in the past five years.
Maybe it will hit while the Democrats are re-doing their primary voting...
It’s Bush’s fault!
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