Posted on 03/01/2008 3:04:41 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
John McCain could officially wrap up the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday, and he'll celebrate in Atlanta on Thursday.
As the GOP establishment in Georgia begins to align behind the presumptive nominee, trouble still lingers among some conservative voters who doubt McCain's bona fides.
Those skeptical voters ultimately could determine McCain's fate. Do they stay home? Do they vote Democrat instead?
Tom Nesbitt is not sure what he's going to do. A retired postal worker from Turner County, the 66-year-old Republican voter said he's "disgusted" with his party in general and McCain in particular.
"I have not yet decided whether I will, at the last moment, vote for McCain, sit this one out or, out of complete disgust for the Republican Party's lack of consideration, vote for another candidate," Nesbitt said.
McCain, an Arizona senator, is expected to pass the delegate threshold to secure the nomination after Tuesday's primaries in Ohio and Texas. Although former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee remains in the race, McCain has a lock on the top slot on the ticket.
Huckabee won Georgia's Feb. 5 primary, in part because of his strength among evangelical voters, many of whom look at McCain with dismay.
Still, some say conservatives' ire toward McCain has been exaggerated and that he has been unfairly painted as a moderate or liberal by the media or by those who simply don't like him.
In Georgia, at least, it seems unlikely that apathy among conservatives toward McCain could trigger a Democratic victory. Georgia last went for a Democrat for president in 1992 and has been trending Republican ever since.
Besides history, McCain has other reasons for optimism in Georgia.
First is Thursday's $1,000-a-plate reception at the Westin Buckhead with host Gov. Sonny Perdue, who did not endorse a candidate in the primary. Joining Perdue on the host committee are nearly every top elected Republican in the state, including Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who also did not endorse in the primary, and House Speaker Glenn Richardson (R-Hiram), who backed McCain after first choice Rudy Giuilani dropped out.
McCain also has the support of Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss. The state's two Republican U.S. senators endorsed their Senate colleague late in the primary campaign, while most U.S. House members went for Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Chambliss is on the ballot in November, too, and it will benefit him to have a strong presidential candidate above him, so Chambliss will be expected to work to bring conservatives back into the GOP fold.
Alec Poitevint, who led McCain's Georgia campaign, said there's no question the GOP will unite behind McCain.
"Absolutely," Poitevint said, "he's a proven leader in a difficult time. And he's the right man to be president now, and I think our people in Georgia understand that."
The primary season is over, he said, and Republicans typically put aside their differences for the good of the party in November.
Shawn Davis, who led Huckabee's Georgia campaign, agrees.
Huckabee will eventually give way, Davis said, and the Arkansan's supporters will back the nominee.
"We believe to win in November it's imperative to have a conservative on the ticket," Davis said. "Once Governor Huckabee releases his 51 delegates to McCain, presumably after his last stand in Texas (on Tuesday), you will see all Georgia Republicans unite strongly behind John McCain."
Some conservatives' anger toward McCain lingers.
A recent report from the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life found that 78 percent of white, born-again Protestants voted for George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. But, wrote John Green, Pew's senior fellow in religion and American politics, McCain "may have some trouble achieving that level of support from white evangelicals given that a majority of them preferred other candidates in the primaries."
If the race is close, a drop in support from such a key component of the Republican base could be damaging.
Exit polls taken from the Georgia primary give McCain reason for concern. He lost badly to Huckabee, and in some cases to third-place finisher Romney, among those who identified themselves as either somewhat conservative or very conservative. Among Republican voters who said they chose a candidate who shares their values, McCain got 15 percent, compared with 51 percent for Huckabee and 31 percent for Romney.
Don Neunaber, a physical therapist in Lilburn, looks at his choices in November and is conflicted.
"I haven't yet decided whether I can vote for McCain," Neunaber said. Note the use of the word "can." It's not "whether I will vote" for McCain. It's "whether I can" vote for him. That difference indicates a deeper, more personal level of frustration.
Neunaber finds the choice excruciating.
"I am faced with a real dilemma as a Republican," he said. "I am stuck between adversaries."
Such strong feelings stem from a series of frustrations and perceived betrayals. Neunaber specifically mentioned McCain's support for the failed immigration bill that many conservatives considered amnesty for illegal immigrants.
In the face of loud and angry response from many voters, McCain backed off his support for the measure. But, Neunaber said, McCain later told a television interviewer that he would sign a similar bill if elected president.
"He's playing to conservatives, trying to move to the conservative side, but he's not that much of a conservative when it comes down to it," Neunaber said.
Others criticize McCain for his sponsorship of campaign finance reform they say stifles the political power of pro-family groups. Others, such as the powerful Club for Growth, don't like his economic policies.
Helen Slater of Marietta, a secretary at Lockheed Martin Corp., voted for Romney in the Feb. 5 Georgia primary. Romney dropped out shortly after finishing third here. Slater will vote for McCain in November.
"Although he certainly is not my choice for the Republican nominee, I still feel like he is the lesser of three evils," she said, noting that the other two "evils" would be Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Jim Beck, chairman of the Georgia Christian Coalition, said more and more Republicans displeased with McCain will come to the conclusion that McCain is the best option available to them.
"You're already seeing it," Beck said. "Based on our e-mail traffic, some Huckabee people are waiting (to publicly back McCain) out of respect for him. At the end of the day, you have to pick between imperfect people."
McCain was not Beck's first choice. That becomes less important in November, he said.
"Look at the alternative," he said.
Plus, Beck said, McCain could gain independents and moderates to offset any loss of conservatives.
"McCain offers appeal to swing voters that would not have been the case with Huckabee or Romney," Beck said.
In the end, however, "I don't think McCain will turn off the base," Beck said.
Nesbitt, the Turner County Republican, would disagree.
"I am totally disgusted with them all, and have decided to call myself an independent, and will think twice before ever voting Republican again," he said.
McCains base IS moderates. He has them.
There are far more McCainocrats then there are Obamicans I read the other day.
Your a stubborn conservative.
I know the type.
Stay home or write in Ronald Reagan. You will feel clean and point the fingers at the rest of us.
the rest of us are going to get into the arena, get dirty, and stop a neo-socialist and traitorous party from taking the white house and this country over the cliff.....
52 Seconds explains it all.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs
Good point, why is that?
There is more than one neo-socialist party in this country. Salud!
McCain has no base. Moderates will vote Dem in the end. But again thanks for letting me off the hook. Since I am not a member of Sen. McCain’s base, I need not feel guilty for not voting for him. Good deal!
Also, there is no need to insult Ronald Reagan who was a great president...unlike McCain who will never be president-deal with it.
Great post! The McCainiacs are endlessly entertaining...bless their hearts.
I voted for Dole. Perhaps if the Repubs had fielded a better candidate, it might have been different. I actually like Dole, but he was not a good candidate. I can’t hold my nose anymore. I could have voted for all the other candidates-some more enthusiastically than others, but not McCain.
When he loses, it will be our fault. Until then, they don’t need us. Even so, if you don’t vote for him, you’re not a real American. Makes sense to me.
This is true also...maybe we will get a conservative congress. I can hope...thanks for cheering me up.
Ditto for me.
I’m not happy about it either...it’s a sad day for the once great Republican Party-the party of men like Lincoln and Reagan.
My husband got banned briefly a couple of weeks ago...he doesn’t support McCain. One of the newbie McCainiacs sicked the moderator on him-claiming my husband supported Obama and was a troll. Yeah right. My husband considers Democrats to have some sort of mental disease. He had merely noted that Obama was a very good candidate and would most likely defeat McCain. After, the moderators looked into it, he was reinstated, but this is how it has been. Newbie McCainiacs lecturing conservatives on every thread. They are as charmless as their candidate.
I think he’ll pick either Sanford or Pace. Either is acceptable to both conservatives and McCain.
Well....I got mightily pissed at Chambliss and Isaakson when they first tried to foist McCain’s amnesty bill off on the citizens of Georgia (they changed their ‘tune’ pretty damn quick when they got bombarded, however). I’d since been thinking about whether I was ever gonna vote for either of them again....I guess this clinches it for me with respect to these two.
Conversely, RINOs are RINOs are RINOs, and that is what real conservatives are no longer choosing to accept......
I hope RINO McAmnesty's gophers are lurking on this thread to see what conservatives think of him.
But all we probably have are his koolaid drinkers.
Tell him to look up the word Whigs.
He might pick up a clue in the eerie parallel to todays hot button issue of immigration...
The party was ultimately destroyed by the question of whether to allow the expansion of slavery to the territories.
With deep fissures in the party on this question, the anti-slavery faction successfully prevented the nomination of its own incumbent President Fillmore in the U.S. presidential election of 1852; instead, the party nominated General Winfield Scott, who was soundly defeated.
The voter base defected to the Republican Party, various coalition parties in some states, and to the Democratic Party.
There is a saying that McCain's head of hispanic outreach, Juan Hernandez, is fond of quoting: "Si se puta!" - yes, we can.
> McCain gains with moderates though whatever he loses with stubborn conservatives.
If you believe that, then why are you having this discussion at all?
Just go on your way, secure in the knowledge that McCain will breeze through to an astounding win in November, and we will go our way on this conservative forum.
Hey, we agree!
Now go here http://www.GOP.com where the real republicans gather the cheerleader drones and we will remain here on this conservative - not republican - forum.
Take the word "Whigs" with you.
“McCain is the one that criticized Alito and said he might not vote for him because “he wore his conservatism on his sleeve.”
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That is what someone claimed he said. He has denied that.
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