Posted on 02/27/2008 7:06:01 AM PST by Uncledave
Why are People Having Fewer Kids?
Perhaps it's because they don't like them very much.
Ronald Bailey | February 26, 2008
The "demographic winter" is coming. So warns a new documentary of the same name. What is the demographic winter? The phrase, according to the film's promotional materials, "denotes the worldwide decline in birthrates, also referred to as the 'birth dearth,' and what that portends." The first half of Demographic Winter was previewed at the conservative Heritage Foundation a couple of weeks ago. According the film, the demographic winter augurs little good, e.g., economic collapse and social deterioration. If current trends continue world population should begin a steep decline sometime around the middle of the 21st century. Why?
Because total fertility rates (TFRs) are plummeting around the world. Population stability is achieved when each woman bears an average of 2.1 kids over the course of her lifetime—one for her, one for her male partner, and a little overage to make up to childhood deaths. Today, there are sixty countries in which TFRs are below 2.1. For example, the European Union's TFR is 1.5 and no EU member state has a TFR at replacement or above. Even high population developing countries have seen steep declines in fertility. Since 1970, China's TFR fell from 5.8 to 1.6; India's from 5.8 to 2.9; Indonesia from 5.6 to 2.4; Japan's from 2.0 to 1.3; Mexico's from 6.8 to 2.4; Brazil's from 5.4 to 2.3; and South Africa's from 5.9 to 2.7. The U.S. TFR dropped from 2.55 in 1970 to around 2.1 today, largely because of the influx of higher fertility immigrants. However, the fertility of second generation Americans drops to the level of longer established Americans.
I doubt that the "demographic winter" portends economic collapse or social deterioration, but let us set that aside for this column, and instead ask why people are choosing to have fewer children? After all, voluntary childlessness seems to violate the Darwinian premise that our genes dispose us, like all other creatures, to try to reproduce.
However, demographic data are undercutting the notion that there is some kind of sociobiological nurturing imperative, economist and demographer Nicholas Eberstadt noted during the question period following the documentary. As evidence, he pointed to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, where 30 percent of women are childless and that Hong Kong's TFR has been below 1 birth per woman for at least a decade.
Demographic Winter asserts that "every aspect of modernity works against family life and in favor of singleness and small families or voluntary childlessness." And surely they are right. Modern societies offer people many other satisfactions and choices outside of the family. In particular women find that their time becomes more highly valued in occupations outside the home. There are no iron laws of demography, but one that comes pretty close is that the more educated women are, the fewer children they tend to have. Eberstadt also noted the best predictor of fertility levels is the desired family size as reported by women. And finally, the most profound event of the 20th century may have been the sexual revolution's drive toward gender equality, enabled by modern contraception. Unlike other creatures, people can have the fun of sex without the side effect of parenthood.
So, modernity essentially transforms children from capital goods that produce family income into consumption items to be enjoyed for their own sakes, more akin to sculptures, paintings, or theatre. But that's just the problem—according to happiness researchers, people don't really enjoy rearing children.
"Economists have modeled the impact of many variables on people's overall happiness and have consistently found that children have only a small impact. A small negative impact," reports Harvard psychologist and happiness researcher Daniel Gilbert. In addition, the more children a person has the less happy they are. According to Gilbert, researchers have found that people derive more satisfaction from eating, exercising, shopping, napping, or watching television than taking care of their kids. "Indeed, looking after the kids appears to be only slightly more pleasant than doing housework," asserts Gilbert in his bestselling, Stumbling on Happiness (2006).
Of course, that's not what most parents say when asked. For instance, in a 2007 Pew Research Center survey people insisted that their relationships with their little darlings are of the greatest importance to their personal happiness and fulfillment. However, the same survey also found "by a margin of nearly three-to-one, Americans say that the main purpose of marriage is the 'mutual happiness and fulfillment' of adults rather than the 'bearing and raising of children.'"
Gilbert suggests that people claim their kids are their chief source of happiness largely because it's what they are expected to say. In addition, Gilbert observes that the more people pay for an item, the more highly they tend to value it and children are expensive, even if you don't throw in piano lessons, soccer camps, orthodonture, and college tuitions. Gilbert further notes that the more children people have, the less happy they tend to be. Since that is the case, it is not surprising that people are choosing to have fewer children. And if people with fewer children are happier, then people with no children must be happiest, right? Not exactly, but the data do suggest that voluntarily childless women and men are not less happy than parents. And they sure do have more money to squander as they try to pursue what happiness they can and strive to somehow fill up their allegedly empty lives.
Disclosure: My wife and I try not to flaunt our voluntarily childless lifestyle too much.
Ronald Bailey is reason's science correspondent. His most recent book, Liberation Biology: The Scientific and Moral Case for the Biotech Revolution, is available from Prometheus Books.
Career? Gave it up. Worked for $10 an hour or less for the past 18 years - gladly - trading $$ for flexiblity. Now I am back in school, busting my rear end to get some credentials -just got my MCP (Microsoft Certified Professional)two days ago-Yippee! Life is good.
FREERIDERS ROCK!!!!
There is just me, my lovely wife, and Terra the German Shepherd. It is enough for me.
Watch Terra TV if you want to...
One of my husbands coworkers is in the same boat. They have an 9 year old daughter who still cannot read. Not due to lack of ability, but rather the mother is homeschooling and is waiting for the child to be “spiritually ready to read”. I won’t even get into the discipline problems they are having. It’s actually pretty sad.
Interesting article and I can understand the “not liking kids part” as I have no great fondness for kids. Well, other peoples’ kids anyway, mine are perfect, lol!
“This has been the best year of my life, and I wouldn’t trade him for anything.”
It only gets better!
I’ve read the other comments on this post and I am defintely in the minority. I have two kids, 30 and 29 years old and they are both a royal PITA. No, I wouldn’t do it all over again.
that.....was.....AWESOME!
ROTFLMAO!!! My mother always reminded me there was going to be "payback" down the road.
God does have a nasty sense of humor: that's why he invented kids!
LOL—I think I saw that kid at the commissary yesterday!
Mom Ping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(I think that there is a direct link with church and people having children).
People who don’t go to church don’t have kids? My kids were born AND raised prior to my coming to the Lord and attending services and they are just fine. My brother has 5 children and has never attended church services as an adult.
The only people having kids are basically illegal aliens, that our government is forcing us to pay for, feed, house, educate and medicate.
“Career? Gave it up. Worked for $10 an hour or less for the past 18 years - gladly - trading $$ for flexiblity. Now I am back in school, busting my rear end to get some credentials -just got my MCP (Microsoft Certified Professional)two days ago-Yippee! Life is good.”
Wonderful!
I also gave up my career to raise our kids for the past 16 years. It was the best thing I could have ever done. I will go back to work once they are on their own and I can have my career then, God willing. But even if I never make another dime or become successful by the worlds standards, I will never ever regret the time and effort I put into raising my kids.
I think too often people equate raising kids with only supporting them financially. They need constant teaching of not only the “three R’s”, but character development, prayer, manners (sorely lacking nowadays), and all sorts of other life issues. Putting a roof over their heads and handing them and Xbox is not raising them. Raising children takes your whole heart and I think most people today aren’t willing to give that much to anyone other than themselves unfortunately.
It takes ~1 week to house train a dog
3+ years for a kid to stop pooping and peeing on themselves
God or Evolution, whichever, really screwed that one up
We'd all be much happier if we handled our own lives and didn't let others tell us what we should be doing.
Disclaimer: I love my kids, but really don't like too many other children. ;^)
She is a very long and lean dog that can jump up, put her front paws on my 6 foot shoulders and look my almost in the eye.
She is a very long and lean dog that can jump up, put her front paws on my 6 foot shoulders and look my almost in the eye.
She is a very long and lean dog that can jump up, put her front paws on my 6 foot shoulders and look my almost in the eye.
Great post. I still feel the same way, and my oldest are teenagers. My youngest had pneumonia a few weeks ago, but she bounced right back. I hope your little guy gets well soon.
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