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Why are People Having Fewer Kids? Perhaps it's because they don't like them very much
Reason ^ | February 26, 2008 | Ronald Bailey

Posted on 02/27/2008 7:06:01 AM PST by Uncledave

Why are People Having Fewer Kids?

Perhaps it's because they don't like them very much.

Ronald Bailey | February 26, 2008

The "demographic winter" is coming. So warns a new documentary of the same name. What is the demographic winter? The phrase, according to the film's promotional materials, "denotes the worldwide decline in birthrates, also referred to as the 'birth dearth,' and what that portends." The first half of Demographic Winter was previewed at the conservative Heritage Foundation a couple of weeks ago. According the film, the demographic winter augurs little good, e.g., economic collapse and social deterioration. If current trends continue world population should begin a steep decline sometime around the middle of the 21st century. Why?

Because total fertility rates (TFRs) are plummeting around the world. Population stability is achieved when each woman bears an average of 2.1 kids over the course of her lifetime—one for her, one for her male partner, and a little overage to make up to childhood deaths. Today, there are sixty countries in which TFRs are below 2.1. For example, the European Union's TFR is 1.5 and no EU member state has a TFR at replacement or above. Even high population developing countries have seen steep declines in fertility. Since 1970, China's TFR fell from 5.8 to 1.6; India's from 5.8 to 2.9; Indonesia from 5.6 to 2.4; Japan's from 2.0 to 1.3; Mexico's from 6.8 to 2.4; Brazil's from 5.4 to 2.3; and South Africa's from 5.9 to 2.7. The U.S. TFR dropped from 2.55 in 1970 to around 2.1 today, largely because of the influx of higher fertility immigrants. However, the fertility of second generation Americans drops to the level of longer established Americans.

I doubt that the "demographic winter" portends economic collapse or social deterioration, but let us set that aside for this column, and instead ask why people are choosing to have fewer children? After all, voluntary childlessness seems to violate the Darwinian premise that our genes dispose us, like all other creatures, to try to reproduce.

However, demographic data are undercutting the notion that there is some kind of sociobiological nurturing imperative, economist and demographer Nicholas Eberstadt noted during the question period following the documentary. As evidence, he pointed to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, where 30 percent of women are childless and that Hong Kong's TFR has been below 1 birth per woman for at least a decade.

Demographic Winter asserts that "every aspect of modernity works against family life and in favor of singleness and small families or voluntary childlessness." And surely they are right. Modern societies offer people many other satisfactions and choices outside of the family. In particular women find that their time becomes more highly valued in occupations outside the home. There are no iron laws of demography, but one that comes pretty close is that the more educated women are, the fewer children they tend to have. Eberstadt also noted the best predictor of fertility levels is the desired family size as reported by women. And finally, the most profound event of the 20th century may have been the sexual revolution's drive toward gender equality, enabled by modern contraception. Unlike other creatures, people can have the fun of sex without the side effect of parenthood.

So, modernity essentially transforms children from capital goods that produce family income into consumption items to be enjoyed for their own sakes, more akin to sculptures, paintings, or theatre. But that's just the problem—according to happiness researchers, people don't really enjoy rearing children.

"Economists have modeled the impact of many variables on people's overall happiness and have consistently found that children have only a small impact. A small negative impact," reports Harvard psychologist and happiness researcher Daniel Gilbert. In addition, the more children a person has the less happy they are. According to Gilbert, researchers have found that people derive more satisfaction from eating, exercising, shopping, napping, or watching television than taking care of their kids. "Indeed, looking after the kids appears to be only slightly more pleasant than doing housework," asserts Gilbert in his bestselling, Stumbling on Happiness (2006).

Of course, that's not what most parents say when asked. For instance, in a 2007 Pew Research Center survey people insisted that their relationships with their little darlings are of the greatest importance to their personal happiness and fulfillment. However, the same survey also found "by a margin of nearly three-to-one, Americans say that the main purpose of marriage is the 'mutual happiness and fulfillment' of adults rather than the 'bearing and raising of children.'"

Gilbert suggests that people claim their kids are their chief source of happiness largely because it's what they are expected to say. In addition, Gilbert observes that the more people pay for an item, the more highly they tend to value it and children are expensive, even if you don't throw in piano lessons, soccer camps, orthodonture, and college tuitions. Gilbert further notes that the more children people have, the less happy they tend to be. Since that is the case, it is not surprising that people are choosing to have fewer children. And if people with fewer children are happier, then people with no children must be happiest, right? Not exactly, but the data do suggest that voluntarily childless women and men are not less happy than parents. And they sure do have more money to squander as they try to pursue what happiness they can and strive to somehow fill up their allegedly empty lives.

Disclosure: My wife and I try not to flaunt our voluntarily childless lifestyle too much.

Ronald Bailey is reason's science correspondent. His most recent book, Liberation Biology: The Scientific and Moral Case for the Biotech Revolution, is available from Prometheus Books.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: birthrates; children; demographics; family
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To: Uncledave
And if we had the will to end illegal immigration, liberals will have died off as a majority within 20 years

I disagree, I think that prosperity has a much greater propensity to turn people into liberals/humanists than poverty. I think that most illegal immigrants would be natural conservatives. They took risk to get here. They want to work. They send money home to families. They have many children. The the things driving them towards liberalism are #1 fear (imposing poverty and exploitation on them) and #2 our socialist welfare state. Both of these things are our fault not theirs! We should secure the borders to prevent attacks and other criminal activities. Otherwise, valuing people, we should generally have open immigration. People are the essential element in every ecomony. People create wealth.

As for children, mine are despicable sinners and they know it. The more we have, the more we dislike them. We're up to nine now and it hurts :-). However, "you can't take it (your wealth) with you" notwithstanding, I take great consolation in knowing and trusting in God that they will be along after me sooner rather than later, with many many generations to follow.

A Conservative does not rely on his money or his fellow man (same thing) but in God he trusts. With God all things are possible.

Matthew 19
16 And, behold, one came and said unto him, Good Master, what good thing shall I do, that I may have eternal life?
17 And he said unto him, Why callest thou me good? there is none good but one, that is, God: but if thou wilt enter into life, keep the commandments.
18 He saith unto him, Which? Jesus said, Thou shalt do no murder, Thou shalt not commit adultery, Thou shalt not steal, Thou shalt not bear false witness,
19 Honour thy father and thy mother: and, Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself.
20 The young man saith unto him, All these things have I kept from my youth up: what lack I yet?
21 Jesus said unto him, If thou wilt be perfect, go and sell that thou hast, and give to the poor, and thou shalt have treasure in heaven: and come and follow me.
22 But when the young man heard that saying, he went away sorrowful: for he had great possessions.
23 Then said Jesus unto his disciples, Verily I say unto you, That a rich man shall hardly enter into the kingdom of heaven.
24 And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
25 When his disciples heard it, they were exceedingly amazed, saying, Who then can be saved?
26 But Jesus beheld them, and said unto them, With men this is impossible; but with God all things are possible.

241 posted on 02/27/2008 3:36:25 PM PST by Theophilus (Nothing can make Americans safer than to stop aborting them.)
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To: Uncledave
I'm pretty fond of my kids.

Other people's kids, however, are a bunch of dirty little brats.

242 posted on 02/27/2008 3:39:55 PM PST by humblegunner
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To: cherry

very very good cherry.


243 posted on 02/27/2008 3:43:33 PM PST by wardaddy (The fact that a radical like Obama can get nominated here makes me ashamed for my nation.)
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To: Tijeras_Slim
Uh... those of us without children are STILL being taxed to death to support other people's kids (so-called education, health care, yada, yada, ad nauseam). And that's not even counting the illegal aliens' children.

So I don't understand why you're calling childless people "free riders." Maybe we childless people ought to demand to be reimbursed for all the money we're spending on other people's kids.

Certainly, every time I go to a buffet restaurant in our town, I'm forced to endure the continuous screams of kids whose parents don't even have the decency to shush them.

If it's selfish of me not to have kids, it's just as selfish (in a different way) for you to have kids and expect me to pay for them and endure their ill manners.

244 posted on 02/27/2008 4:26:13 PM PST by pbmaltzman
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To: najida
Some folks can’t have children and don’t want to go through the adoption nightmare.

Some folks don’t have children because they’re afraid they’ll hurt them (via their own bad childhood.)

Some folks don’t have children because they have difficulty taking care of themselves, much less someone else.

Some folks don’t have children simply because they don’t want children.

All I can say is AMEN to all of that!!

I will add that several of those items apply to me (bad childhood, hard time taking care of self, lack of strong desire for kids).

In addition, I found out that a couple of relatives have certain psychological/physiological problems such as schizophrenia (which, I think, is at least partly hereditary)... and after I learned that, I felt extremely RELIEVED that I had refrained from reproducing.

Because I don't think I could have dealt with a kid with that kind of a severe problem.

The last bastion of individuality should respect this.

Even if this isn't the last bastion of individuality (and I doubt that it is), having kids is an individual choice, not a social duty... and that choice should be respected here.

245 posted on 02/27/2008 4:33:35 PM PST by pbmaltzman
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To: pbmaltzman
I will add that several of those items apply to me (bad childhood, hard time taking care of self, lack of strong desire for kids).

In addition, I found out that a couple of relatives have certain psychological/physiological problems such as schizophrenia (which, I think, is at least partly hereditary)... and after I learned that, I felt extremely RELIEVED that I had refrained from reproducing.

Because I don't think I could have dealt with a kid with that kind of a severe problem.

Unfortunately, I'm in a similar situation. Having an atrocious gene pool (crazy family to boot) & myself with ADHD, I am grateful to be childless. Not because I don't like kids, but because I could barely take care of myself.

Having kids is one thing. Being a parent -- role model, not just caregiver -- is something else.

I do not in any way advocate childlessness. Generally we are meant to procreate, & raise the next generation. But I do believe that if you do not have the resources, financial or psychological, to raise a child, you should not have one. Period.

I was offered men who had custody (or fighting for custody) of their kids, because the wife wasn't well mentally. The first thing I say is, "I am not going to be any better."

246 posted on 02/27/2008 4:44:19 PM PST by MoochPooch (I'm a compassionate cynic.)
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To: martin_fierro
So I'm thinking about maybe getting an Abyssinian-breed cat, or some other cat (NOT hairless!) to which Mrs F. isn't allergic.

Suggestions are welcome.

Siberian cats, although they have a triple coat, are said to be naturally hypoallergenic--that is, they apparently lack the gene which codes for the substance in most cats' saliva which is allergenic to many people.

Many Siberian breeders will let you either visit their cattery, or they will send you a sample of Siberian fur.

They are not cheap... I've looked at several websites and the kittens generally go for $700 and up... but it's still cheaper than the alleged designer-gene kittens.

Here is one website which lists some Siberian breeders--and no, I am not one, and I don't own one of these cats. Just passing along information. You could also Google "Siberian cat breeders" and find even more.

http://taigasiberians.homestead.com/

247 posted on 02/27/2008 4:44:44 PM PST by pbmaltzman
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To: MoochPooch
I do not in any way advocate childlessness. Generally we are meant to procreate, & raise the next generation. But I do believe that if you do not have the resources, financial or psychological, to raise a child, you should not have one. Period.

I was offered men who had custody (or fighting for custody) of their kids, because the wife wasn't well mentally. The first thing I say is, "I am not going to be any better."

In general, I agree with you. I don't think I'm necessarily crazy... but I have had a hard time taking care of myself, and other things have happened in the last few years which have made it even harder (pay cut, among others). I'm currently the main breadwinner in my long-term relationship, and it's been difficult.

A long-ago ex of mine had the ex-girlfriend from hell (crazy, manipulative, mean, etc.). I was with him for three years, and was effectively a stepmom to the kid he was raising... and the kid wasn't his biologically.

He was one of the first men I ever met who actually loved being a father. He loved that kid, and the kid knew he was lucky to have him for a father.

But the mother of that kid was a nightmare. She should not have had kids, but she did--five kids and an unknown number of abortions. Every time she got preggers, there was a question of paternity. She went through men like Kleenex (at least as long as her looks held out).

She was very good at playing helpless and then grabbing men by the short hairs. She used the kids as pawns to get what she wanted from the men.

I have a hard time understanding why men didn't just run away screaming, but it took some time for them to get past the easy sex and see her for what she was.

I feel sorry for her kids. I wonder if any of her kids turned out as crazy as she is.

248 posted on 02/27/2008 4:55:49 PM PST by pbmaltzman
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To: rockinqsranch
“Unfortunately many don’t want the responsibility of children.”

Unfortunately many don’t want any responsibility....it is play time...

249 posted on 02/27/2008 5:08:52 PM PST by thinking
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To: dha

Sounds like the mother is doing more waiting than schooling. What kind of “schooling” can you do for 4+ consecutive years with a kid who can’t read? Sad to say, every now and then one hears of a homeschooled child who would actually be better off in even one of the crappier public schools.

Honestly, I’m in favor of some minimal testing requirements for homeschoolers. There’s a huge body of research showing that the window in which children can ever learn to read really well closes at around age 9. If they haven’t learned to read well by then, they never will because the brain has lost plasticity in the relevant regions. They can still learn to read laboriously later in life, but will never be able to read effortlessly, and that will severely hamper their ability to pursue most careers and to function as well-informed citizens. Preventing your child from learning to read before that window closes really qualifies as criminal child neglect. The government, as an agent of the citizens, has a legitimate interest in ensuring that children aren’t forcibly handicapped to the point where they’re virtually certain to end up unable to support themselves.


250 posted on 02/27/2008 6:10:37 PM PST by GovernmentShrinker
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To: thinking

Precisely my thinking as I posted that comment.


251 posted on 02/27/2008 6:37:04 PM PST by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists...call 'em what you will...They ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: Uncledave
$

252 posted on 02/27/2008 6:37:56 PM PST by bannie (clintons CHEAT! ALLLLLWAYS!)
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To: Uncledave

I like babies till they get to be old enough to smart mouth and swing back.


253 posted on 02/27/2008 6:38:47 PM PST by cyborg (Nursing school, another marathon and a cherry on top)
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To: GingisK

You think they are shallow and self-centered for deciding not to have kids, but then you want them to have kids? 1) A little ironic, isn’t it? 2) Why is it your business if someone else has kids or not? It’s really none of your business unless you think we all live in the same commune.


254 posted on 02/27/2008 6:47:32 PM PST by ItisaReligionofPeace
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To: Uncledave

Americans are not having as many kids because they have sold the farm.


255 posted on 02/27/2008 6:51:29 PM PST by TruthWillWin
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To: B-Chan

Your post made me chuckle. I have three, ages 21, 18 and 16 and like you, have been pooped, peed and puked on by all. The teenage years are tough (and hubby and I agree, ours are pretty good, compared to what we hear and see of other teens). Like you, I can’t imagine life without them. God bless your family, and enjoy your son...the time passes so quickly.


256 posted on 02/27/2008 6:57:57 PM PST by OldBlondBabe
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To: Digital Sniper

My parish is always full to overflowing with little ones. It is one of the main reasons I go to St. Peter and Paul’s instead of St John’s which is bigger, has better AC and is nearer. We had to stop at four because of a medical event that ended childbearing early for my wife.


257 posted on 02/27/2008 7:14:37 PM PST by arthurus
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To: mountainbunny; pbmaltzman

Thanks for the tips!!


258 posted on 02/27/2008 7:24:05 PM PST by martin_fierro (< |:)~)
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To: Uncledave; informavoracious; larose; RJR_fan; Prospero; Conservative Vermont Vet; eaglesnest1; ...
+

Freep-mail me to get on or off my pro-life and Catholic List:

Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to note-worthy Pro-Life or Catholic threads, or other threads of interest.

259 posted on 02/27/2008 7:25:25 PM PST by narses (...the spirit of Trent is abroad once more.)
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To: OldBlondBabe

Thanks. I make a point of spending as much time with Baby Chan as possible. He’s already growing up too quickly. The Wonder Years are so brief...


260 posted on 02/27/2008 7:25:27 PM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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