Posted on 02/27/2008 7:06:01 AM PST by Uncledave
Why are People Having Fewer Kids?
Perhaps it's because they don't like them very much.
Ronald Bailey | February 26, 2008
The "demographic winter" is coming. So warns a new documentary of the same name. What is the demographic winter? The phrase, according to the film's promotional materials, "denotes the worldwide decline in birthrates, also referred to as the 'birth dearth,' and what that portends." The first half of Demographic Winter was previewed at the conservative Heritage Foundation a couple of weeks ago. According the film, the demographic winter augurs little good, e.g., economic collapse and social deterioration. If current trends continue world population should begin a steep decline sometime around the middle of the 21st century. Why?
Because total fertility rates (TFRs) are plummeting around the world. Population stability is achieved when each woman bears an average of 2.1 kids over the course of her lifetime—one for her, one for her male partner, and a little overage to make up to childhood deaths. Today, there are sixty countries in which TFRs are below 2.1. For example, the European Union's TFR is 1.5 and no EU member state has a TFR at replacement or above. Even high population developing countries have seen steep declines in fertility. Since 1970, China's TFR fell from 5.8 to 1.6; India's from 5.8 to 2.9; Indonesia from 5.6 to 2.4; Japan's from 2.0 to 1.3; Mexico's from 6.8 to 2.4; Brazil's from 5.4 to 2.3; and South Africa's from 5.9 to 2.7. The U.S. TFR dropped from 2.55 in 1970 to around 2.1 today, largely because of the influx of higher fertility immigrants. However, the fertility of second generation Americans drops to the level of longer established Americans.
I doubt that the "demographic winter" portends economic collapse or social deterioration, but let us set that aside for this column, and instead ask why people are choosing to have fewer children? After all, voluntary childlessness seems to violate the Darwinian premise that our genes dispose us, like all other creatures, to try to reproduce.
However, demographic data are undercutting the notion that there is some kind of sociobiological nurturing imperative, economist and demographer Nicholas Eberstadt noted during the question period following the documentary. As evidence, he pointed to Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, where 30 percent of women are childless and that Hong Kong's TFR has been below 1 birth per woman for at least a decade.
Demographic Winter asserts that "every aspect of modernity works against family life and in favor of singleness and small families or voluntary childlessness." And surely they are right. Modern societies offer people many other satisfactions and choices outside of the family. In particular women find that their time becomes more highly valued in occupations outside the home. There are no iron laws of demography, but one that comes pretty close is that the more educated women are, the fewer children they tend to have. Eberstadt also noted the best predictor of fertility levels is the desired family size as reported by women. And finally, the most profound event of the 20th century may have been the sexual revolution's drive toward gender equality, enabled by modern contraception. Unlike other creatures, people can have the fun of sex without the side effect of parenthood.
So, modernity essentially transforms children from capital goods that produce family income into consumption items to be enjoyed for their own sakes, more akin to sculptures, paintings, or theatre. But that's just the problem—according to happiness researchers, people don't really enjoy rearing children.
"Economists have modeled the impact of many variables on people's overall happiness and have consistently found that children have only a small impact. A small negative impact," reports Harvard psychologist and happiness researcher Daniel Gilbert. In addition, the more children a person has the less happy they are. According to Gilbert, researchers have found that people derive more satisfaction from eating, exercising, shopping, napping, or watching television than taking care of their kids. "Indeed, looking after the kids appears to be only slightly more pleasant than doing housework," asserts Gilbert in his bestselling, Stumbling on Happiness (2006).
Of course, that's not what most parents say when asked. For instance, in a 2007 Pew Research Center survey people insisted that their relationships with their little darlings are of the greatest importance to their personal happiness and fulfillment. However, the same survey also found "by a margin of nearly three-to-one, Americans say that the main purpose of marriage is the 'mutual happiness and fulfillment' of adults rather than the 'bearing and raising of children.'"
Gilbert suggests that people claim their kids are their chief source of happiness largely because it's what they are expected to say. In addition, Gilbert observes that the more people pay for an item, the more highly they tend to value it and children are expensive, even if you don't throw in piano lessons, soccer camps, orthodonture, and college tuitions. Gilbert further notes that the more children people have, the less happy they tend to be. Since that is the case, it is not surprising that people are choosing to have fewer children. And if people with fewer children are happier, then people with no children must be happiest, right? Not exactly, but the data do suggest that voluntarily childless women and men are not less happy than parents. And they sure do have more money to squander as they try to pursue what happiness they can and strive to somehow fill up their allegedly empty lives.
Disclosure: My wife and I try not to flaunt our voluntarily childless lifestyle too much.
Ronald Bailey is reason's science correspondent. His most recent book, Liberation Biology: The Scientific and Moral Case for the Biotech Revolution, is available from Prometheus Books.
I dare say those who complain about kids who behave badly in public probably behaved badly in public themselves a time or two.
The freeriders aren’t subsidizing my kids either, as they have always gone to private schools.
you still have that dang cat catting around your house?
"FReepers are a very judgemental lot, that’s for sure."
If I told you some of the things that were said to me, you would be shocked.
But the house feels empty now.
So I'm thinking about maybe getting an Abyssinian-breed cat, or some other cat (NOT hairless!) to which Mrs F. isn't allergic.
Suggestions are welcome.
Whoah. Do the kids know that’s how you feel?
It costs a lot of money to buy a yacht. Maybe there should be a $12,000 tax exemption for that, too.
> Subject: Dog/Cat Diaries
>
>
> DOG DIARY
>
> 8:00 am - Dog food! My favorite thing!
>
> 9:30 am - A car ride! My favorite thing!
>
> 9:40 am - A walk in the park! My favorite thing!
>
> 10:30 am - Got rubbed and petted! My favorite thing!
>
> 12:00 pm - Lunch! My favorite thing!
>
> 1:00 pm - Played in the yard! My favorite thing!
>
> 3:00 pm - Wagged my tail! My favorite thing!
>
> 5:00 pm - Milk bones! My favorite thing!
>
> 7:00 pm - Got to play ball! My favorite thing!
>
> 8:00 pm - Wow! Watched TV with my people! My favorite thing!
>
> 11:00 pm - Sleeping on the bed! My favorite thing!
>
> ————————————————————————————————————
> ——
> ——————————————
>
> CAT DIARY
>
> Day 983 of my captivity.
>
> My captors continue to taunt me with bizarre little dangling objects.
>
> They dine lavishly on fresh meat, while the other inmates and I are fed
> hash
> or some sort of dry nuggets. Although I make my contempt for the rations
> perfectly clear, I nevertheless must eat something in
> order to keep up my strength.
>
> The only thing that keeps me going is my dream of escape.
>
> In an attempt to disgust them, I once again vomit on the carpet.
>
> Today I decapitated a mouse and dropped its headless body at their feet.
> I
> had hoped this would strike fear into their hearts, since it clearly
> demonstrates what I am capable of. However, they merely made
> condescending comments about what a “good little hunter” I am.
>
> Bas tards!
>
> There was some sort of assembly of their accomplices tonight. I was
> placed
> in solitary confinement for the duration of the event.
>
> However, I could hear the noises and smell the food. I overheard that my
> confinement was due to the power of “allergies.” I must learn what
> this means, and how to use it to my advantage.
>
> Today I was almost successful in an attempt to assassinate one of my
> tormentors by weaving around his feet as he was walking. I must try this
> again tomorrow — but at the top of the stairs.
>
> I am convinced that the other prisoners here are flunkies and snitches.
>
> The dog receives special privileges. He is regularly released - and
> seems to
> be more than willing to return. He is obviously retarded.
>
> The bird has got to be an informant. I observe him communicate with the
> guards regularly. I am certain that he reports my every move. My captors
> have arranged protective custody for him in an elevated cell,
> so he is safe...
>
> For now...
My wife and I have voluntarily limited ourselves to only 5 children....she won that one.
I like making them and having them around.
My home is 97% funtime and very very rewarding.
I was an only child for 12 years and I was envious so I guess I’m making up for it.
But if there is a heap of passion tween wife and husband and all other things being equal and the vision of family first is shared by both then believe me, babies are an obvious result of that.
It’s in our nature usually.
*now irresponsible fatherless child bearing is another matter
I Know what you mean. Kids bring their own stuff to the table. That doesn’t mean that a lot of people don’t have some serious cultural handicaps when it comes to dealing with kids.
I am the oldest of 6 children, father of 4, youth soccer coach for 25 years and am currently a children’s pastor seeing 100 kids every weekend. I don’t know what to say. If I am alone responsible for my happiness and I am responsible for my happiness alone and there are no other moral imperatives than “If it feels good do it” and “If it hurts when you do that, don’t do that”, then radical personal autonomy is the only game in town.
If, however, there is something more...
will the yacht become a member of the workforce someday and pay for the care of the majority of the population as they live out their last days? (all the while not being able to contribute to their own golden years)
If I allow my child to whine and beg for a toy/candy and repeated say no or ignore the request, then give in, I've just trained my child to beg/whine.
We all have had times our kids just threw a fit somewhere and mortified us. I've left grocery stores before with a screaming child. But the normal, daily antics of a child can be controlled or anticipated with good parenting, as I'm sure you know.
Funny... on this thread, the word “selfish” is getting tossed around like the hottest potato in town.
“Selfishness is not living as one wishes to live, selfishness is wanting others to live as one wishes to live”
Oscar Wilde
I think a lot of the under 35 educated classes have been sorta indoctrinated with earnest self absorption too.
(course one could say that about boomers too...sans the earnestness)
I have observed that many couples who don’t want kids tend to be sorta obsessed with doing their own thing first......travel is usually big with them.
I have also noticed they are more immature in their relationship with each other and squabble over the insignificant more......and ....this will sure help me here lol.....usually one party is very very needy......and surprise, it’s the man more often than the woman.
Women of course who are validation oriented tend to be often childless and probably a good thing.
None of this applies to folks who want to have kids and can’t. I feel for them.
Here is one thing that bugged me. A childless fellow (I don’t know the reason) was spouting off about tax deductions for children and I told him I would give up my deductions if he would give up his social security.
We are not built for our own pleasure. We are built to live together with others. This unnatural experiment that the liberals and libertarians find rational will in the end fail. I don’t suppose any of those who have no stake in the future will mind.
Great post! Thanks!
Isn’t that hilarious? I had to share it.
the ONLY reason for life is children...without children, how can you look at the world?....work and education and civility don't mean a thing, since you have no worry about the future because you will have no future...
but have kids, and then look at the world....you want it to be better...you work harder....educate yourself...save money for them...join civil groups to help the community...vote for good people who will ensure there is a future for you....
the trouble with our world is that there are too many people that don't care about the future....when you have children, believe me, you care about taxes, crime, eductation, the enviroment, arts, parks, zoos, etc....you care.....
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