McCain is winning because there are no conservatives running against him. Its as simple as that.
Beagle8U: “McCain is winning because there are no conservatives running against him. Its as simple as that.”
I tried to prove “Winner Takes All” states were distorting the race, but they haven’t so far changed the outcome. Yes, McCain received more delegates than his popular vote would justify (as a percent of total votes), but he does have the lead in both actual votes (even in RED states) and delegates.
I’m still trying to figure out a way to quantify the impact of the early primaries on the process. I also have open/closed primary data, and I could run the numbers to see if independents are distorting the results.
If FReepers are interested, I could look at how the race would change if every state had a “Winner Take All” primary. I can tell you now that Huckabee would do a lot better, but I don’t know by how much. Perhaps he’d actually end up with more delegates than Romney, but he’s third overall for votes.