Beagle8U: “McCain is winning because there are no conservatives running against him. Its as simple as that.”
I tried to prove “Winner Takes All” states were distorting the race, but they haven’t so far changed the outcome. Yes, McCain received more delegates than his popular vote would justify (as a percent of total votes), but he does have the lead in both actual votes (even in RED states) and delegates.
I’m still trying to figure out a way to quantify the impact of the early primaries on the process. I also have open/closed primary data, and I could run the numbers to see if independents are distorting the results.
If FReepers are interested, I could look at how the race would change if every state had a “Winner Take All” primary. I can tell you now that Huckabee would do a lot better, but I don’t know by how much. Perhaps he’d actually end up with more delegates than Romney, but he’s third overall for votes.
Another thing you may wish to crunch data on...
How many delegates were awarded based on caucus votes as opposed to direct vote primaries?
The simple truth is that winning in a caucus doesn’t relate to true support because the best funded is going to win.
With enough cash to invest any candidate can locate and bus to the caucus site enough supporters to stand in the corner and cheer, then go to a pizza party when its over.
Add to that the fact that a caucus isn’t a secret vote and you can see how things might be skewed as to how a real election might turn out. Would you want to caucus for who you really wanted if you knew that choice might get you booted from your church or even fired from your job?
They are definitely distorting the results, but I don't think it's possible to accurately run the numbers.
In Florida, we are supposed to have a closed primary where only those who are registered in one party or another can vote. Never-the-less, as they did in the primaries of other states, Independents (from here and elsewhere) were able to request a "provisional ballot" and vote. Like these so-called "Independents", DemocRATS also voted for the Republican opponent of McCain and Huckabee that they feared to run against the most.
The 'RATS don't care which of their two front-running candidates wins the general because they figure those two will be a ticket either way.
Independents and 'RATS working together with the media have already picked our candidate FOR us.
We no longer have two parties; 'RAT or RINO = no difference.
Oily leftists pushing for a "big-tent" have infiltrated Reagan's "New" Republican Party and have undermined it.
Since oil and water don't mix, we must push them out.
We need to gain control of both Houses of Congress as soon as possible!