Posted on 01/29/2008 8:38:37 PM PST by jdm
With more than two-thirds of the precincts reporting, John McCain has won an impressive victory in Florida's Republican primary. Many people questioned whether Senator McCain could win a closed GOP contest, as up to now he had won in New Hampshire and South Carolina through the assistance of crossover voting from Democrats and independents. Those questions have now been answered, at least in Florida.
What does this mean for the Super Tuesday contests coming up in a week? It appears that the race has narrowed down to McCain and Romney. McCain will enter February 5th with more delegates, but only 10% of what he needs to win the nomination. He will have a great deal of momentum and credibility, and Romney will have relinquished some. Almost certainly, McCain becomes the favorite to win the nomination.
However, Romney has a better national organization and more resources to run in 21 states simultaneously. He can negate some of the momentum and make this a delegate chase, and could very possibly come out of next week with a delegate lead. It won't be easy, especially since the McCain win in Florida will only bolster McCain's lead in the coastal states.
If the race really does come down to McCain and Romney, then Romney could also benefit from conservative disaffection with McCain. In the GOP, there exists a very real resistance to McCain, and that could find itself focusing on Romney as the anti-McCain. It's not the most positive phenomenon, but Romney may find it essential for a national victory.
Rudy Giuliani may hold the key. Rumors have floated that Giuliani will withdraw and endorse McCain. If he does, that may be enough to push McCain even further towards inevitability -- or it may not have any effect at all. Rudy's speech in Florida strongly hinted that he has come to the end of the road. If so, we will know soon; the Republicans will debate in California tomorrow night, and Rudy won't bother to appear unless he plans to contest elections on Super Tuesday.
At least for this evening, John McCain deserves some accolades. He hung tough and showed he could beat the field in a closed primary, and not by an insignificant amount, as his vote gap over Romney already exceeds 70,000.
UPDATE: McCain, in his victory speech, made a very clear attempt to be gracious towards all of the candidates, including Romney, and reach out to Reagan-coalition conservatives. Rumor has it that McCain is considering a visit to CPAC next week. I hope he does make an appearance there and speak as honestly and forthrightly about his candidacy with the foot soldiers of conservative activism. If he does win the nomination, he will need those activists behind him.
UPDATE II: He also insists that judges must understand their limited role in applying law and not creating policy. I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't get added after the John Fund article.
MN votes next week?
Do your part to help Mitt out!
Pablo John Keating McCain Feingold for Federale Perro Catcher
In Florida the proabort voters were already going for McCain.
Exit polls showed that Romney was preferred 2nd choice of Rudy voters.
Romney got a big boost when Thompson left.
He may get a big boost when Rudy leaves, as big as McCains boost.
OTOH, Huckabee is splitting conservative votes and thereby helping McCain.
Thats kind of how I feel. I am not angry as some people here.
Had it not been for that, Romney would have won."
Voters registered as indepenents were not supposed to be allowed to vote today...but the precincts got the word to let them vote.
Governor Crist campaigned for McCain...so I guess the gov got his way to give his candidate the extra help he needed!!
Crist should be crucified.
You are right. Give to the Super Tuesday, Stop John McCain Fund!
This guy agrees with you:
Republicans and conservatives now have no choice but to throw their support to Romney. If McCain is nominated we will see conservatives disenfranchised and the Republican party torn apart, perhaps forever. That may be exactly what the New York Times has been hoping for all along.
http://politicalgrind.com/2008/01/29/stop-mccain-rally-to-romney/#respond
There are good conservatives out there and we cannot give up. Look at these words of wisdom from Romney supporter, Sen. Jim DeMint. It gives one hope:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1961799/posts
Conservatives as Charlie Brown. McCain as Lucy with the football.
former Rudy supporters will go to McCain.
Huck is still trudging along, thus splitting
the votes of people who want to vote
for somebody that reminds them of a
used car salesman
Dear John McCain,
Congratulations John McCain on your victory in Florida.
I want to talk about Change, with a capital “C”.
I am a conservative Republican who wants to vote for Change.
And that is why I am voting for Mitt Romney in the California Republican Primary.
To me, Mr. McCain, while I respect you very much, and certainly if my fellow Republicans choose you as their nominee then you certainly have my vote to be President of the United States - still and with all due respect you do not represent Change to me.
To me, there are many aspects of your candidacy of which does not represent Change, but represents Establishment, the same “as is and go along to get along” politics. I know you don’t like President Bush, but in many ways you remind me a lot of him.
And, that doesn’t represent change. Not to me. You are too well established, too well liked, among the “old guard”, be they from the Republican wing or the Democratic wing. You remind me a lot of Bush, and that is somewhat of a concern of mine in regards to defeating the Democratic nominee, which likely will be Hillary Clinton.
The funny thing about it, though, is I don’t think Hillary Clinton really comes about as a candidate of Change, either. I would imagine that she will be seen by many Americans as “established guard”, just like you. Old school. Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, … Clinton? That’s Change?
No, it isn’t.
Now, Change in itself can be a change for the better or a change for the worse. But I don’t think you would bring Change either for the better, nor for the worse. I don’t think you are the answer for a bad economy, perhaps you will bring tax cuts which would be great, but I’m not sure. I think you might try to legalize millions of illegal aliens, and that has me very worried. Now, I do appreciate how you are now talking about securing the borders, and how you “got the message” and understand what the American people really want in this regard. But, if indeed you are going to be our nominee, coming from the point of view of not only a Republican voter, but from one who represents an opinion of a very large constituency of Americans, here is what I would advise you to do:
* You show strong leadership qualities, but I would really, honestly, appreciate if you would be more clear in elaborating your ideas on the subjects of interest to the American people, which is the economy, the War on Terrorism, and illegal immigration (in that order). Yes, we all understand that you will be confronted by conservatives on some of your earlier pronouncements and stances on issues. You seem to be shifting your stances, and this shift very much seems to be in the right direction, and because I now believe you have a way better than average chance that you are going to be our nominee, I really appreciate your change in opinion regarding some of these matters, in particular your change in question of illegal immigration. Thank you very much for valuing our commitment to stronger borders – and again, just to remind you, I do not support an amnesty, there are more than a few who seem to agree, and we do not need to debate what the word amnesty means since I believe you understand exactly what many conservatives mean by the word and our feelings on this matter. The good news is, it is obviously you are seeking our vote, and I hope you do not let us down on this because it would be a very big mistake.
I am told that conservatives have a big problem with you. Since I call myself a conservative, and now that your victory in Florida certainly has given you the lead in the race for the nomination, I would say I really don’t have “big” problems with you. In the glare of ruthless publicity in which you live, in which every one of your gestures and words, you arm motions even, are public property, still I greatly love and respect how you are truly willing to share with us, Americans such as myself, your true and honest feelings about our role in the world, our future, the War, and so many things. You have a developed and passionate regard for the truth, even if too many conservatives say that you are not truthful. You are. That is why we salute John McCain.
You are not a “maverick” because the old media likes you, or flip around on issues, of hang around the old school politicians who just want to remain in office. Do not let the liberals in the media, who in the end are NOT your friend, trick you.
You are not a maverick because of any of these things. You are a maverick because you have a passionate regard for what you believe is true. And, even if voters such as myself will not agree with you, still I love that quality in you. I would advise, if you are going to win the election for the President of United States, that this is how you are going to defeat Hillary Clinton. You will not be able to run on a campaign of Change. That is the truth. What you will need to do, is run on a campaign of your passionate regard for truth. It was this passionate regard for truth which made you turn against Bush at some critical junctures regarding the need for a surge – in many ways it turned out you were correct, yes I know many conservatives will try to argue that actually you really weren’t on the message of a need for a surge, but I think you were nevertheless. I believe you when you say you saw this need very early, and I believe in your passion for the truth.
If you run on this message, you will win the election and become the next President of the United States. It sounds very simple, but sometimes the answer is very simple.
I also believe something else about you. I believe you can, given the moment and the need, always, and will always, continually outgrow your own doctrines. If you honestly communicate this to Americans, then in it’s own way you are telling them that Change comes from those who can outgrow their own doctrines. You see, I do not think Americans can or will believe that this is a quality of Hillary Clinton.
But they will believe this is a quality of yourself. You get on this message, and you will win.
Your failures are public. I do not focus on these. What I really like about you is that your struggles, even though in so many ways you communicate them indirectly, such as your experiences in Vietnam, that your struggles are still private. And amazingly, your greatest triumphs are private.
You would make a wonderful President of the United States. Because I believe you are a lover of men and not a slave of ideas. This has nothing to do with politics, left or right. You have certain qualities that go beyond that. You communicate this to us, and you will win.
I understand President Bush’s feelings about the humanity of the Hispanic people of our Nation. It is really part of Texas, in a way. And I understand your same feelings in this regard, for the American Indian and the Hispanic people. I too, love both of these people.
I hope your love for the people of the United States can be communicated in this election. If you communicate this, you will win.
I believe I once heard that you said, you cannot reduce all problems to moral algebra. You are correct. So, just my advice, I hope you are not thinking of choosing Huckabee for example as your running mate. As angry as this will make my friends who are conservatives, I would recommend to you, if he is willing to take on the partnership, that if you win the nomination that you select Rudy Giuliani as your running mate.
If you do this you will win the election for the United States of America.
But what do I know? I am a nobody. But actually, in this time, you can beat the odds, as you are already doing, simply – it will be a contest of personality. You can win this contest, because so many Americans love you, and many more, including conservatives, will find in your message the truth that in today’s world, a dangerous world, an uncertain world, our real enemies are our own fears, our own vices and greeds, and immorality, and laziness, that is in danger of weakening our stand in the world. You have a way to be a figure of one who does not have fear, and you bring us calm and determination. You do not seem to be one of vice or greed. Even if we disagree with you on a political position, you do not seem to take a side because you think it will benefit your interests. You certainly are not lazy, you inspire us to serve. If you communicate this message, you will win.
Good luck on your candidacy. I am still voting for Mitt Romney in the California primary. And I know you will never read this. But, just some thoughts.
KISS YOUR NATION GOODBY.
Please start living in the real world. Preferably sometime before the end of the year.
I agree. I’ll have no more of the liberal wing of the party controlling our policies and taking the conservative base for granted. If McCain gets the nod, I’m officially unregistering from the Republican Party. I WILL NOT VOTE FOR MCCAIN. McCain vs a Dem is a choice between Bad and Worse and I’m not voting for Bad. What Billy Clinton did to the Democrat party, Bush is now doing to the Republican party, only the effects will be far more damaging and lasting. Bush has screwed us all with his government bloating brand of “conservatism” and his inability to communicate.
Also, I predict that McCain gets completely rolled by whoever or whatever the Dims nominate. I predict colossal landslide. The liberal news media want McCain because he is eminently beatable and so many of our fellow Republicans are falling for it!
Peddle doom to the tourists.
Alright, who told McCain about CPAC?
Amen to that. Many a MSM liberal is smiling tonight.
Wouldn’t it be great if a fractured and fractious Republican party could head into a “brokered convention” and nominate Gen. Petraeus? Who could not, who would not (aside from those “suspending their disbelief”)rally behind him and elect him?
It will be between Mitt and Huck.
You can make a change. If you have issues with McCain, even though you are a “nobody”, you are someone, and you can change even John McCain. Hillary will never listen to you. But as a conservative, you CAN get the attention of John McCain. It is up to the Republicans to choose their candidate. If they choose John McCain, and it is looking more like this will be the case, you better start talking to our next President now. You can make a change, you can do it. You have this power, you can communicate with John McCain, and in the end I think you will be very surprised.
Try to understand, and you can make a difference. You are very important. The nation will not go goodbye. Not if you are willing to make the difference.
Communicate directly to John McCain. Write him a letter. You think he will not read it. But, he will.
Just try it. Because you are a voice in this Party. Do not believe otherwise. You will see.
hahahahahah You are kidding me! McCain didn't win by some grand conspiracy, he ran a better campaign and got the votes... pure and simple. Some folks here are starting to sound like Gore supporters after the 2000 election. There is no conspiracy here, trying to suggest there is is just nonsense. May make you sleep better at night believing that some conspiracy exists, but its not true.
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