Posted on 01/21/2008 5:06:48 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Mitt Romney with a slight lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are close behind in what may develop into a three-man race. It’s Romney at 25%, McCain at 20%, and Giuliani at 19%. Romney has picked up seven points over the past week while McCain and Giuliani each inched up a point.
Last week, before the Michigan and South Carolina Primaries, Rasmussen Reports polling found essentially a four-way tie for the lead in Florida. However, Mike Huckabee has slipped to 13% in the current poll. A week ago, he was the top choice for 17%.
One major wild card in the race may be Fred Thompson. The former Senator from Tennessee is considering dropping out of the race after a disappointing showing in South Carolina last Saturday. Twelve percent (12%) of Florida’s Likely Republican Primary Voters still support the actor turned politician.
Even though early voting has already begun, the race remains incredibly fluid. Just 54% of likely voters say they are “certain” of how they will vote. Six percent (6%) have not yet made up their mind and 12% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Giuliani and Huckabee have the most solid support at this time. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Giuliani’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for him along with 65% of those who favor Huckabee. For Romney, just 55% are that certain. For McCain, just 48% are that certain. In fact, 22% of McCain’s supporters still say there’s a good chance they could change their mind.
Among those who are “certain” how they will vote, Romney is the pick for 25%, Giuliani 24%, and McCain 17%.
Florida represents both a major challenge and a major opportunity for McCain. Both result from the fact that Independent voters are not allowed to participate in Florida’s Republican Primary. In McCain’s earlier victories, he has been competitive among Republican voters but won with the votes of Independents. If he is to win the GOP nomination, McCain must sooner or later show that he can win among Republicans. On the other hand, if McCain can win a Republican-only Primary in Florida, he will have a major advantage heading into Super Tuesday a week later.
In Florida, Romney leads among conservative voters, attracting 28% of them. Giuliani is second with 18%.
Among moderates, McCain dominates with 34% support. Giuliani is second with 23%.
Huckabee leads among the state’s Evangelical Christian voters, but his lead is not as substantial as in earlier states. Huckabee currently attracts 25% of the Evangelical vote, Romney 20%, and Thompson 17%.
Giuliani is viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Primary Voters. Romney’s favorables are at 70%, Thompson at 66%, McCain at 64%, Huckabee at 54% and Paul at 28%.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of Likely Primary Voters view Thompson as politically conservative, 45% say the same about Huckabee and 43% view Romney as a conservative. Just 21% see McCain in that way while 14% see Giuliani as a conservative.
Eighty-three percent (83%) see Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal and 76% say the same about McCain. Fifty percent (50%) see Huckabee as moderate or liberal and 49% hold that view of Romney.
Last week’s survey found that Giuliani and McCain were seen as the most electable Republican candidates.
McCain and Romney lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Before the caucuses and primaries began, Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December. Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.
If you vote Romney, you get someone who’s changed positions significantly since running, but now has pretty much solid conservative positions.
If you vote McCain, you get someone who’s hardly ever changed positions, a man of values, a man of character. The only problem is that his positions and values (on most issues) are basically indistinguishable from the Democratic Party.
I know who I would choose, given those two options.
Don't know but a question for you or anyone else.
Which candidate/s will these voters gravitate too once these two do drop out?
Then comes McLame who is a loose canon, and they have plenty saved up for him.
And finally Rudy who would pay for his daughters abortion.
Mitt is the man who can win, and the libs will have a tough time tearing him up. t
Edwards has always struck me as light in the loafers
Reports are that Fred has bowed out of the next debate and has an important announcement tomorrow. Sounds like farewell.
I like Romney of the leaders, he is my favorite. Can he win in November?
If Giuliani loses Fla., he will be toast. Heard his man say today that even if he loses he won’t drop out, and I guess that might make some sense since Super Tue is just around the corner, but he’ll not be a factor if he loses Fla.
Fred’s probably going to announce he’s out tomorrow. Has scheduled a presser, and he’s not planning to be in the next debate. Went to see his mother in TN instead of to Fla. to campaign. She’s ill, so it doesn’t surprise me that he’s going there, but the signs are adding up.
As for Huckabee, I predict he will be in it until the convention. He’s going after the VP slot, I suspect. The question is whether he will throw his delegates to McCain in order to get the VP slot. I would not be surprised.
Well, Chad in Georgia who is now in Florida.... ;)
Welcome to the team!
If you’re interested in an alliance between the two, try here:
http://mittandfred.blogspot.com/
Maybe not. Maybe he will give a great speech, announce that he is out of the debate to be with his mom, but that he is still in the race and hops conservatives in FL give him their vote on the 29th. He would sure get more coverage than at any debate! I am still with Fred until I hear him say he is out.
Source/link?
Pinged for future reference.
Mostly Romney, I bet.
There a 250 post thread on this very board. Look for it.
They’ve been hinting that Thompson’s dropping out on Foxnews all day. They say his advisers say they aren’t going to the next debate, which is in Fla. Fred has a press conference scheduled for tomorrow. He’s not campaigning in Fla., and the primary is next Tue. He’s visiting his mother, who is ill in TN. That’s a pretty good excuse for not being in Fla., but he’s not helping his cause by not campaigning, whatever his excuse might be.
Fox News is infested from top to bottom with closet cases and Rudy lovers. I wouldn't pay any attention to anything they say about the election this year.
Fred is still accepting donations.....I agree, his is in it till super tuesday.
They were also trashing Rudy, though. Lately, they seem to be leaning toward McCain.
Dear God, I hope you are correct.
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