Posted on 01/05/2008 11:24:42 AM PST by doug from upland
The Tyranny of Super-Delegates
Barack Obama's stirring victory in Iowa was also a good night for our democracy. The turnout broke records and young people – who were mobilized and organized – participated in unprecedented numbers. And now that Iowans have spoken – the first citizens in the nation to do so – here's the Democratic delegate count for the top three candidates (2,025 delegates are needed to secure the nomination):
Clinton – 169
Obama – 66
Edwards – 47
"Huh?" you say. "vanden Heuvel, you made a MAJOR typo."
In fact, those numbers are correct: the third-place finishing Sen. Hillary Clinton now has over twice as many delegates as Sen. Obama, and more than three times as many delegates as the second-place candidate, Sen. John Edwards. Why? Because the Democratic Party uses an antiquated and anti-democratic nominating system that includes 842 "super-delegates" – un-pledged party leaders not chosen by the voters, free to support the candidate of their choice, and who comprise more than forty percent of the delegates needed to win the nomination. Many have already announced the candidate they will support.
In a clear attempt to protect the party establishment, this undemocratic infrastructure was created following George McGovern's landslide defeat in 1972. It was designed to prevent a nominee who was "out of sync with the rest of the party," Northeastern University political scientist William Mayer told MSNBC. Democratic National Committee member Elaine Kamarck called it a "sort of safety valve."
In 1988, Reverend Jesse Jackson challenged the notion that these appointed delegates be permitted to vote for the candidate of their choosing rather than the winner of the state's caucus or primary. He was right to do so. Twenty years later, when the word "change" is being bandied about, isn't it time for the Democratic Party to give real meaning to the word? Strengthen our democracy by reforming the super-delegate system so that the people, not the party establishment, choose their candidate.
Sen. Hillary Clinton now has over twice as many delegates as Sen. Obama, and more than three times as many delegates as the second-place candidate, Sen. John Edwards.
Do those delegates include all the dead ones or are then still not finished counting them?
It will depend largely on the MSM as to which of the two principal Democratic candidates gets the nod. They desperately and openly desire a "media" president, which Bush is most certainly not (as some of us have lamented on a regular basis). "Framed" properly Hillary's putsch might go as unremarked as Mondale's did, especially if she offers Obama the consolation prize of a Vice-Presidential nomination. That's what I'd be telling her at the moment if I were her campaign manager. And the way things are going that slot might be opening soon.
Not that I'd prostitute myself for money. Not even lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and...hmm...
hmmm. the keywords lists them all - -
Romney is damaged goods. Only ego and a large wallet will keep him in the race.
It is not trickery. The rules are known to every candidate and party leader.
Don't forget who controls the DNC.
Super-delegates have been part of the Clinton campaign agenda for years. This is where the massive war chest goes. The Toon raises and disperses her largess to county commissioners, mayors, state legislators and local Democrat party organizations. This is where BillToon comes in with his fund raising speeches. Super-delegates.
Hillary has almost all of them locked up already. That is why she will win the nomination.
That is why everything else is part of the campaign correography to position her as a moderate centrist.
yitbos
I knew that which is why I was against Florida shelling out money for a Democrat primary if the Democrat Party wasn't going to count the Florida delegates. Same reason why I'm against states that pass laws saying that independents (or anyone) can vote in a particular party's primary. If they want to help select the Party representative in the general election they should belong to the Party.
What I did not know is that delegates are under no obligation to vote for who the people chose. Live and learn.
I have doubts about that. They love ‘Rat handout promises far too much to leave the plantation over their party screwing over a black presidential candidate. But it’d be great if you were correct.
From your mouth to God’s Ear.
You really have no clue what you’re talking about. I admire Clinton about the same as I admire a rattlesnake.
I’ve been researching the GOP brokered convention a bit, and I have really good news to share.
Just about all of the changes to the primary calendar make a brokered convention more likely, and Giuliani’s strategy in particular, pretty much impossible. Firstly, candidates had previously counted on a winnowing of the field before large states like California, Florida, and New York voted in order to secure enough votes for the convention. But this time there will be 5 viable candidate all gunning for those votes early. This much we already know. But now let’s examine Rudy’s strategy in particular. It is downright stupid, given the circumstances.
Florida, the first delegate-rich state was stripped of half of its delegates as punishment for moving up so early. So Rudy is going for a state that HAD a lot of delegates, but will in fact have less delegates than Missouri, Georgia, or Michigan now. Further complicating things, Florida, California and New York all have a district by district winner take all delegate awarding system. So Giuliani will have to share the bulk of these states’ delegate treasure trove with 4 other viable candidates. Fred Thompson is likely to garner the most outside of the metropolitan areas. So Giuliani will likely be walking away with only half or less of the delegates from the large states. What this all means is the race for the nomination will essentially be county by county, not state by state winner take all, and will be split by way too many candidates for anyone to come anywhere near the count needed. It was hard enough under the old system where it came down to only two candidates pretty early. The GOP field is just not going to break down any further because of the strategies and personalities and closeness of the whole thing.
A brokered convention is surely coming. Looking at the data, I can really see nothing that can prevent that. If enough candidates stay determined and don’t drop out until early March, then a brokered convention will be a done deal.
My advice right now for everyone who doesn’t want Giuliani or Huckabee — whether you’re for Fred or Mitt or even Duncan Hunter, is to encourage your candidate — and ALL candidates — to stay in the race until the end. Donate to ALL of them, keep every campaign as viable as we can, — yes even John McCain (but not Giuliani or Huckabee).
What do we get out of it? First of all, we get the cloak of mystery and the element of surprise protecting our nominee until just two months before the election, while the unarmed Democrat nominee is exposed to attack through the spring, summer, and into the fall. And secondly, we get a second chance at the convention for our candidate who may otherwise not make the final cut. This is the only scenario that candidate like Duncan Hunter has any chance at all. It could happen for him. Not very likely, but at least his chances go from impossible to improbable.
For both Mitt and Fred supporters, we all believe in our guy. The Republican convention will surely pick the Republicaniest candidate, and we all believe that is our guy. So lets all step up to the challenge, and may the best man win.
If they think they have a real chance for the first (1/2)black president, that will trump everything.
The Clintons are holding down a BLACK guy!!
Oh, I disagree.
While the Clintons have lost the rank and file, they still control the party machinery. Bill will want to protect his own legacy as the First Black President™.
I suspect Rove left the hurricane machine in the WH basement and W had it converted to a Left-Wing Superdelegate Brain-Wave Manipulation device. KOS and Al Gore have been slowly catching onto the hurricane stuff anyway so it wasn't doing much good.
Add to that scenario Fred Thompson wins the nomination and puts Michael Steel on ticket with him.
Or, JC Watts. (I’d really like Duncan Hunter).
Doug,
This site says that there are 314 superdelegates or 14% of the total, and the other article (MSNBC) said that there were 842 superdelegates or 40%. Do you know which it is?
I believe it is somewhere over 800. Because it takes 2,025 to get the nomination, the superdelegates are about 40% of what is necessary for the nomination.
Thanks. For some reason the site referenced in post 46 states that there are 314 superdelegates. 111 have already committed to Hillary.
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