Why do Freepers Support a Different Candidate than Polltakers?

1/1/2008 | me

[amordei]

I support Fred Thompson as do a far majority of FreeRepublic members. However, polls of Iowa voters, NH voters, national voters, etc. all place Fred way back in the pack. Why is that? Is it bad polling, e.g., oversampling non-Republicans, unlikely voters, etc.? I just can't believe that we are that far from standard Republican opinion. If we are, may God have mercy on us all. ;->

[nckerr]

Here's Why!

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

I support Fred Thompson as do a far majority of FreeRepublic members.

****

Just curioso...
Do you have data to back this up??

Yes, actually

[bazbo]

Ditto! Well said!

[Pippin]

I’m a Fred Thompson supporter.

[ex-snook]

Interest question but maybe other Republicans are not as impressed with Bush as Freepers are and Freepers are looking for another Bush.

[Pippin]

I’m a Fred Thompson supporter.

[snarkybob]

“That’s why candidates that FReepers have deemed “unelectable” are showing far better than anyone here expects, and others like Fred aren’t doing nearly as well. Unfortunate, but we have to face facts.”

Well said. I also believe that a lot of GOP voters are voting any one but Hillary, and they’re picking who they think can run best against her, they don’t seem to have faith in Fred.

[Pippin]

Sorry about the double post, my machine is slow and weird acting.

[sourcery]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/poll?poll=207;results=1

[codercpc]

I must point out the fact that since the beginning of the primaries, many non Fred supporters have not exactly been accepted here with open arms.

Either through their own decision, or by decision of the owner of this site, many of them have either gone onto other sites, or just stopped posting here all together.

There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but it will result in a scewed reality of supporters. Like minded people tend to flock together, and that seems to be part of what has happened.

I am a long time poster, but if I was a "noobie" that came here just to discuss the candidates, I would get the idea real quickly that non Fred supporters (without a really thick skin) are not exactly welcomed.

[msnpatriot]

Another Factor:

Many Conservative & Republican Talk Radio hosts have not really come out with firm picks yet.

And many who have say they can change their minds.

I notice alot of them like Fred Thompson, but aren’t sure yet.

This may change very soon.

[RKB-AFG]

I just can't believe that we are that far from standard Republican opinion.

IMHO, it is because we are that far from standard Republican opinion. (That is not necessarily a bad thing).

[elkfersupper]

Your neighbors and fellow Republicans are not conservatives.

[Kevmo]

Thanks for posting that.

Here’s a snapshot from Intrade yesterday. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.

For the Iowa caucus, Thompson is at the bottom of the pack, Romney has regained the lead from Huckabee. Ron Paul and Hunter are both embedded together, so there’s no way of knowing if he’s gaining ground, but on the basis of the president.field contract moving, I’d say he’s probably at ~0.3 and Ron Paul is at ~4.8, which puts Hunter ahead of Thompson.

Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 45.0 46.0 45.0 1690 +5.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 40.2 54.9 50.0 1960 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.1 1.4 0.1 642 -1.4
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.6 4.4 0.2 860 -2.8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 701 0

REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 4.7 5.9 4.8 1384 +1.0

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 14910 +0.1

Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts

They seem to openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”

Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

Thompson tops the list of most likely to drop out in January, per Intrade. Judging from momentum, Thompson is the one who won’t be on the ballot in February.

Dropouts from 2008 Presidential Race. Jan 2008
DROPOUT.JAN08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 35.0 49.0 35.0 15 -7.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 10.0 30.0 10.0 31 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 10.1 29.8 14.9 27 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M - 10.0 5.0 10 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M - 10.0 1.0 0 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 5.0 10.0 7.0 40 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 8.0 25.0 6.0 20 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 35.0 99.0 40.0 70 +12.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 10.0 15.0 15.0 24 +5.2

.

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.

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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd

[Wings-n-Wind]

TQC....

Thanks to you as well... for the link
Ref my #43 above!
HNY

[bazbo]

Although I voted for Bush not everything he has done lived up to my expectations and I usually vote for the candidate that has the values closest to my own.

Comparing GOP candidates leaves me with the opinion that Thompson is not ambition driven as are other contenders. Dig a little and i think you will discover that Fred is running because of concerns for a future America that his children and grandchildren will inherit. If the lack of pomposity is seen as “no fire in his belly” then voters should take a closer look.

Fred Thompson’s simple no nonsense answers to MSM questioning is a refreshing change from answers contrived by “fire in the belly” candidates designed to appeal to the current questioner.

I would ask you look closer at Fred.

Below is a link to side-by-side comparisons (at the bottom third of the page) as to where the GOP candidates stand on:

Family Values Issues

2nd Amendment Rights and Crime

Securing America’s Borders

Fiscal Responsibility

http://www.fred08.com/Principles/PrinciplesSummary.aspx?View=OnTheIssues

[Caramelgal]

I presume this is a slam against Fred Thompson because he's made his living in recent years as an actor?

Didn’t Ronald Regan also once make his living as an actor? If the only thing I ever knew about RR was “Bed Time for Bonzo”, he would have never gotten my vote back in 1980. But RR was a lot more than the roles he played.

Mike Huckabee learned his craft and media savvy from a televangelist.

Fred Thompson wants to bring us back to a Constitutional government.

Mike Huckabee wants to bring us to more socialism under the “Lord’s” name.

Who do you think I and other true conservatives are going to vote for?

[Secret Agent Man]

It’s okay. We’re conservative here for the most part. We look for people who talk the talk AND walk the walk.

Others will come around. It’s called being ahead of the curve.

[Free Vulcan]

exactly.

[hellbender]

Fred= no fire in the belly

And who wants a President with heartburn or ulcers anyway?