You do make an interesting point, and this is an interesting conversation. One reason I would not think that this is the case is the way Democrats do not split from the party easily. Most Democrats are Democrats because that what they are. Its almost like rooting for your favorite NFL team, they are the loyal ones. My grandparents were Democrats. If you discussed issues with them, they would agree with every single point of view a conservative has, but always voted Democrat (I know that is not the majority of them though). Most Democrats need only one issue to be a Democrat. Many are Democrat based on one or two issues. It maight be AFL-CIO Unions, Abortion, Gay Rights, the Media "Common Man's Party" etc. Republicans are the ones that demand 100% agreement with their candidate or they threaten to run off to a third party. I see that all the time on FR. I see them say "If ______ wins the RNC Nomination, I am voting 3rd party". Never mind it would result in putting in someone they would disagree 100% into office. I just see republicans more willing to leave the party if they are not 100% happy with their party candidate. About an hour ago I saw a FReeper say if his man doesn't win the nomination, he would write in Buchanan on election day. Its insanity.
Well if Paul goes 3rd party, I hope your right and I hope Im wrong, I just dont have that confidence you do on that issue.
I'm looking at this situation as if Hillary is the annointed Dem. She has to be crapping her boxers over the faint suggestion that RP might mount a third party run. Just look at it like this: between those two, the beast or paul, which is the most obviously anti-war? Along those lines, WHY all the Soros?? support/money? With all that money available, you think he won't run, and pull the entire moonbat ultraleft fringe with him? Hillary is way too hawkish on the war for half (or more) of her party.
All that having been said, much of what you say about Dem loyalty vs. Rep independence is true, one reason being that in the past, to have any say, you had to vote Dem, there was no Rep in many of the Southern states.(Primaries were where the action was.)
I just realized, it might just be a very lucrative investment to purchase at this time a life insurance policy on RP, if legal. (Maybe as good as certain cattle futures.)