Posted on 11/15/2007 3:49:47 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson brushed off concerns Thursday about his single-digit showings in recent Iowa and New Hampshire polls, saying he expects a new television ad on immigration will help boost his numbers. "In the past, a lot of things have changed in the Iowa presidential elections - Howard Dean can tell you that," he said, referring to 2004 when Dean's third-place showing in Iowa derailed his campaign for the Democratic nomination.
"So you've just got to do what you do and keep at it and understand that the end of the day is all that counts," he said.
CBS/New York Times polls in Iowa and New Hampshire show Thompson at 9 and 5 percent for Republicans, respectively. Mitt Romney leads both states with 34 percent in New Hampshire and 27 percent in Iowa.
Thompson, who was in New York for a fundraiser and a closed town-hall meeting, said he expects his recently released television ad in Iowa to help sway voters in that crucial state. The ad stresses the need to secure U.S. borders and enforce immigration laws.
Illegal immigration has divided Republicans and remains a critical issue to many GOP voters. This past summer, Arizona Sen. John McCain supported legislation that would have strengthened border security and allowed for many illegal immigrants to become citizens. The leading GOP contenders, Romney and Rudy Giuliani, both opposed the legislation, which was backed by President Bush (website - news - bio) but failed in the Senate.
On Thursday, Thompson reiterated that the government should strip federal dollars from cities and states that don't report illegal immigrants, and he criticized Giuliani for "going to court to preserve sanctuary cities" while he was mayor of New York City.
Giuliani has defended New York's so-called sanctuary policy, which stopped city workers from reporting suspected illegal immigrants. He sued the federal government to keep his city's policy.
"If we will enforce the border, if we will stop inducements like sanctuary cities, and we will tell employers that they're going to have to obey the law too, then over a period of time, this situation will turn much to the good," Thompson said.
The former Tennessee senator tried to highlight other differences between himself and Giuliani, who has been a supporter of gun control and abortion. Thompson is opposed to both.
He also said the Romney campaign should stop "whining" about losing the National Right To Life Committee's endorsement to him. Thompson said he believed the endorsement would help at the polls.
You are the liar. I recently went round & round with another Thompson supporter who was calling me a liar. He eventually said that what I was posting was not a lie, I agreed to change ONE SENTENCE. See if you can tell the difference.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts?page=36#36
Yeah, this Thompson campaign is definitely showing signs of imploding. Look at how you guys operate.
Here’s another set of posts. Note what Delphi has to say.
Maybe you could wander on over to the Fred Forum and post what is said there. When I touched on that third rail, it was the ONLY time I’ve ever been suspended from Free Republic.
ko
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Hunter is at 4% in this Angus-Reid poll, and at least one other poll this week.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
09/11/2007 08:21:42 Subject: Duncan Hunter gaining traction?
GAW838
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I think immigration is an issue that can kill a candidacy, but can’t necessarily launch one.
In part, this is because it is very important to a certain minority of voters who have hard line against what they call amnesty.
If it didn’t matter at all, McCain would be doing a lot better.
I don’t think that’s the whole explanation though. It seems to me, at least this cycle, like issues have not really been important in driving anyone’s candidacy, save Ron Paul. Certainly, some issue positions have been a way for candidates to engage with one another and score points, but not really competitive candidate has risen due to his stance on a particular issue.
Moreover, even in an environment where a candidate can ride a single issue to the top, he still needs more stature than Hunter had coming into this campaign. So, I remain unsurprised and don’t really see a phenomenon searching for a new explanation so much as a natural consequence of existing assumptions.
Once again, there’s a reason Hunter’s candidacy was greeted with a combination of yawns and ‘really He’s running?’ responses, most people never took him seriously and for good reason.
09/11/2007 13:29:16 Subject: Duncan Hunter gaining traction?
Tozikio
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GAW838 wrote:
It seems to me, at least this cycle, like issues have not really been important in driving anyone’s candidacy
To be honest, I have felt like the Republicans have been dog-paddling the presidency since 1988. Reagan really ran on a set of ideas that stirred people. He could appeal to their patriotism and confidence.
Since then, Willie Horton, Flag Burning, Gays in the Military, Gay Marriage, “Family Values” were the “defining” campaign themes on the Repub side. Reagan had put together a right-leaning coalition of southerners and westerners which was large enough to simply allow “governing from the base” and not bother to reach out or even “think” too much. What the heck was a compassionate conservative or a thousand points of light supposed to be anyway? These were mushy themes.
The candidates seem more pale every cycle, and I think the Republicans have “lost the middle”. And that doesn’t mean voters are happy with the Dems either. I think that’s why the Bloomberg 3rd party contract gets bids in the teens and twenties. Intraders can sense this problem. The ennui of this election is palpable, and people are not ready propel any of the condidates. They’re just going to hold their noses again!
Having said that, I know there is complaining every year about the nomination process. Usually the nominee gains some stature after his acceptance speech.
09/11/2007 18:41:12 Subject: Re:Duncan Hunter gaining traction?
Delphi
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Actually ko, Hunter’s been drawing 3-4% in most polls during the past 2-3 weeks, so there’s a measurable support out there for him. How he cuts through the busy but low-key media buzz of other second-tier candidates like Huckabee and Paul (although I note that a week ago Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put Huckabee at #3 ahead of McCain and Thompson) is a bit questionable right now.
Here you go. Why would Intraders be talking about measurable support and how that translates into Intrade results? Because it is pertinent, and it does support what my stand-on-head theory as you call it.
Delphi:
Actually ko, Hunter’s been drawing 3-4% in most polls during the past 2-3 weeks, so there’s a measurable support out there for him.
And now that you have posted this example here for everyone to see, there won’t be any question abbout who is telling the truth and who is the liar.
***Where do you think I got the idea and the material for my post? From these forum posts at Intrade. You’re just mad that it makes your candidate look bad. I can see why. It’s devastating.
Are you really this stupid?
I have said to you on many occasions that this has nothing whatsoever to do with who I support or who I don’t support.
If I switched my support to Duncan Hunter this instant you would still be a liar and a fool. And worse, in my view.
The only issue I have been trying to drill into is that Hunter’s contract on Intrade at 10 cents is not selling because there are no buyers for it at this price, and no sellers at the next tick down, which is ZERO - a free good. If a signficantly smaller tick value could be introduced, the contracts WOULD trade, although, contrary to your fevered expectations, they would trade DOWN.
This has nothing whatever to do with the silly crap on the Intrade Froum or your silly crap here. I tried to explain to you why there aren’t any buyers for Hunter’s contract(essentially it’s overpriced), but you only response was that I don’t know what I’m talking about and I should look at the Intrade forum to see how the experts there would savage my position.
So I looked and while the general level of comment there is a notch or so above yours, NO POSTER on Intrade is trying to sell the nonsense that the reason Hunter’s Contract is not selling is because it is undervalued. Such a comment on a trader’s forum would instantly become the butt of some serious humor.
So, again, you lied. And you continue to lie.
Now I am going to get personal. You are contemptible because you revel in your own ignorance. Of all human frailties this is the worst. Admission of ignorance is the first step in education, and you aren’t willing to take even that first step.
It would actually be a good thing for yo to be banned from Free Republic again. Your absence would definitely raise the average level of debate.
Sean is for Rudy all the way! Makes me very tired to listen to him go on and on about how great Rudy is! Makes me think Sean is in line to be Rudy’s pres secretary! Sean should be smart enough to know that Rudy is NOT going to win the nomination!!
What exactly is he doing to win those states?
He isn’t even campaigning...is he?
He is the guy I am supporting...his unrealistic optimism does concern me a bit though.
Come on....to win you need to actually show up and do some campaigning.....a lot. Not a little....a lot.
Here. I found where what I was saying was basically acknowledged by someone who says he was a former stock trader.
It disproves your contention explicitly. This is the 2nd time in a few days I’ve been called a liar on this forum by Thompson supporters, and the last one basically withdrew the accusation with a one-sentence change in my post that did not change the meaning at all, it was just semantics.
ko
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Tozikio wrote:
I think Huckabee and Paul are taking support
from Fred. These are the people who are looking
for “something or someone else” — they thought
they’d find it in Thompson, and didn’t.
On the ideology scale, Hunter is closer than Huckabee or Paul. That is only New Hampshire polling data, and that state has its own strange political mixture. There’s a thread right here at Intrade discussing Hunter and the possibility of gaining traction.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
He’s polling at 3-4%, which is a bump up from what Delphi called Asteriskville. I would expect to see some liquidity in the Hunter contracts coming up pretty soon.
15/11/2007 13:08:00 Subject: Re:Thompson is tanking. Why?
Tozikio
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You’re right in an objective sense. But I think in the
early stages of the primary, the voters themselves
don’t know what they want. Thompson had created
a chameleon-like reputation before entering the race.
He could be anything to anybody since it wasn’t
clear how he would campaign.
Independent leaning Republicans had already
decided against the early announced and best
funded candidates. The fall of McCain was known even
before Thompson entered. It was assumed that Thompson
could vacuum up all the dissatisfied voters.
In a nutshell, Thompson had the “support” of the soft,
window shopping voters back in early September. People
are making up their minds now and drifting elsewhere.
I also agree that New Hampshire is a quirky place. But
Thompson needs to show some reasonable mass appeal.
If he gets single digits there, it could affect his results in
South Carolina.
The only issue I have been trying to drill into is that Hunter’s contract on Intrade at 10 cents is not selling because there are no buyers for it at this price, and no sellers at the next tick down, which is ZERO - a free good. If a signficantly smaller tick value could be introduced, the contracts WOULD trade, although, contrary to your fevered expectations, they would trade DOWN.
***Then how can you accuse me of lying? My theory was that a person could put $100 down on Hunter today and if his Intrade #’s started tracking the polling data (Ron Paul and Huckabee the 2 most recent examples), the guy would get 40X return on investment, and in order to get 40X return on Fred you’d have to go for the whole kit & kaboodle. All you are saying is that his contracts are valued low, and my response to that was “COOL”. I still say it looks like a bargain. There is no lie there.
This has nothing whatever to do with the silly crap on the Intrade Froum or your silly crap here. I tried to explain to you why there aren’t any buyers for Hunter’s contract(essentially it’s overpriced), but you only response was that I don’t know what I’m talking about and I should look at the Intrade forum to see how the experts there would savage my position.
***And I found evidence that they agree with what I say. That means what I’m writing is not a lie.
So I looked and while the general level of comment there is a notch or so above yours, NO POSTER on Intrade is trying to sell the nonsense that the reason Hunter’s Contract is not selling is because it is undervalued. Such a comment on a trader’s forum would instantly become the butt of some serious humor.
***The point you’re driving her is some kind of semantics issue, isn’t it? I think that’s what happens when someone posts an analysis like mine and the data seems to correlate but it doesn’t look good for a certain candidate. That’s why the last freeper called me a liar over semantics and I think you’re doing the same. It is evidence that the Thompson campaign is falling apart.
So, again, you lied. And you continue to lie.
***And I have PROVED that I did not lie, quoting directly from that forum that you said not a single post supported my theory.
Now I am going to get personal.
***The rules on this forum are very explicit, no personal attacks.
You are contemptible because you revel in your own ignorance. Of all human frailties this is the worst. Admission of ignorance is the first step in education, and you aren’t willing to take even that first step.
***If the reader will go over to the original thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts?q=1&;page=251
the reader will see that in post ~300-306 or so I basically identified logical fallacy after fallacy and, for the first time I’ve ever seen it, a true straw argument within a straw argument. Your contention that I’m ignorant was shot down over there when your buddy tried to do it on that thread, and I’ve proved to you that my theory is supported over at Intrade. You are the contemptible one here, calling someone a liar over semantics because it doesn’t look good for Thompson.
It would actually be a good thing for yo to be banned from Free Republic again. Your absence would definitely raise the average level of debate.
***likewise, prince.
Au Contraire, mon amie.
I am saying that his (Hunter's) contracts are valued (i.e. priced) too HIGH.
You are really in need of some basic education in economics, markets and so on. Maybe you're good at figuring poker odds, and that may be a skill you can use. But, you have got a view of market operation that is so ass backwards that it is amusing in one sense and tragic in another.
My theory was that a person could put $100 down on Hunter today and if his Intrade #’s started tracking the polling data (Ron Paul and Huckabee the 2 most recent examples), the guy would get 40X return on investment..
Well, that isn't really a theory, it's more of an observation that if somebody owns an asset at a $1 buy in price and the asset goes to $40, the holder has made a 40X return on investment. Sort of trivial, in fact.
The issue in fact isn't that at all, it is whether the price of a proposition on Intrade such as "Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Nominee for President" would or should be linked to the standing in the popularity polls.
Clearly there is no direct link.
It is very easy to imagine a time when the field has winnowed and there are only two candidates left, one with say 70% popularity and the other with 30%. I would expect the prices on Intrade to be more like $95 for the 70% guy and $5 for the 30% guy.
Why? Because these contracts do not measure percent popularity. Is there a chance that Duncan Hunter contracts could come off the 10 cent price? Sure. I wouldn't hold my breath. But again that's not what you have been arguing. In fact Duncan Hunter contracts are too expensive, and that's why there are no buyers. If they were cheaper, maybe buyers would come to the party, but we can't find out because the next tick down is zero. There's your liquidity issue explained for you again.
One final point: There is some dead certain money to be made on the Intrade exchange, and that is in shorting Ron Paul. The profit will be small, but is a dead certain lock.
I will look further when I have more time, just out of curiosity.
The thing I find interesting is that no one, including those discussing it have bought the Duncan investment.
Kevmo: All you are saying is that his contracts are valued low
JV: Au Contraire, mon amie. I am saying that his (Hunter’s) contracts are valued (i.e. priced) too HIGH.
***You say oranges are bright orange, I say apples are not colored orange. It is 2 different things. You ARE saying that Hunter’s contract is valued (priced) low. Then you say it’s priced too high, which is simply another way of saying that it’s valued (priced) low.
You are really in need of some basic education in economics, markets and so on.
***If you honestly think that is true then you will not mind that I copy this response over on my original thread and continue the dialog there. Readers who are interested can go over there if they’re curious about how this turns out, and we will no longer be distracting freepers from the original intent of the thread, which was that “Thompson Argues Polls Will Change”.
Maybe you’re good at figuring poker odds, and that may be a skill you can use. But, you have got a view of market operation that is so ass backwards that it is amusing in one sense and tragic in another.
***Which is why this needs to be stated on the Intrade thread. If what you say is true, they’ll be all over me for it. Hint: They’re not. And since you have so much trouble with my theory we should be having this discussion on that thread.
My theory was that a person could put $100 down on Hunter today and if his Intrade #’s started tracking the polling data (Ron Paul and Huckabee the 2 most recent examples), the guy would get 40X return on investment..
Well, that isn’t really a theory, it’s more of an observation that if somebody owns an asset at a $1 buy in price and the asset goes to $40, the holder has made a 40X return on investment. Sort of trivial, in fact.
***It’s not a theory, it’s a trivial observation? Then how can you argue against it. Your obvious problem is with the hypothetical: “if his Intrade #’s started tracking the polling data (Ron Paul and Huckabee the 2 most recent examples)”
The issue in fact isn’t that at all, it is whether the price of a proposition on Intrade such as “Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Nominee for President” would or should be linked to the standing in the popularity polls. Clearly there is no direct link.
***Obviously, or I wouldn’t even be able to put forth this strategy in the first place. Duh. But there is a correlation, which is something that the Intraders acknowledge. It is difficult to quantify that correlation, but there does appear to be one, and my two recent cited examples are cases for it. I’m sure there are others.
It is very easy to imagine a time when the field has winnowed and there are only two candidates left, one with say 70% popularity and the other with 30%. I would expect the prices on Intrade to be more like $95 for the 70% guy and $5 for the 30% guy. Why? Because these contracts do not measure percent popularity.
***I agree with this. What’s your problem? This happens inexorably as the election day draws closer. You can see it in the Intrade graphs. And one shining example of how this is correct is that Intrade showed Thompson declining rapidly, trading at ~8% when his polls showed him in the 20% range or so. I’m not sure of the exact figures, but it was telling that the Intrade numbers were leading indicators and the poll numbers were the laggers.
Is there a chance that Duncan Hunter contracts could come off the 10 cent price? Sure. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
But again that’s not what you have been arguing.
***That is precisely what I’ve been arguing. The fact that you tell me that it is not what I’ve been arguing shows that YOU did not understand, and that you have been engaging in straw argumentation. In another post I put the chances of Hunter’s contracts going to 4% at about 2 to 1, and it is an opportunity to go for a 40 to 1 contract. Maybe the chances are 3 to 1, maybe they’re 100 to 1, I don’t see that quantified anywhere. But he made it to 4%, getting to 5% is an incremental effort, not a quantum one.
In fact Duncan Hunter contracts are too expensive, and that’s why there are no buyers. If they were cheaper, maybe buyers would come to the party, but we can’t find out because the next tick down is zero. There’s your liquidity issue explained for you again.
***The Duncan Hunter contracts are valued at 0.1. That’s their price. You cannot argue that it is not their price. Someone is asking to sell them at 0.1 so that is their value because you could buy them at 0.1. To argue that they are too expensive is such an overbloated argument that it is useless, and furthermore calling me a liar over this semantic issue is despicable. Who cares if the next tick down is zero? You focus on arguing back & forth over this issue and yet you overlook the fact that Hunter contracts are a bargain. You went out of your way to get onto this ridiculous issue so that you could show Hunter’s contracts in the most negative light possible, that somehow the market considers them worthless. But here I am pointing out that there’s an entirely untapped market of buyers for these contracts: Hunter supporters. So by trying to attract and inject a whole new group of Intraders there would be buyers for those contracts, and they could get the ball rolling. Yes, they could. Your argument is that the existing players haven’t rolled the ball. My argument is that a bunch of Hunter supporters could roll this ball and make some money. It is not a lie, and by calling me a liar you have shown yourself to be pathetic.
One final point: There is some dead certain money to be made on the Intrade exchange, and that is in shorting Ron Paul. The profit will be small, but is a dead certain lock.
***I agree. If there were any group I would suspect of trying to manipulate the market, it would be the Paulestinians, and that is what I suspected when the price for Paul was 9 freeping dollars when he was still sort of an asterisk in the polls. But then he made $4M in one day and the whole episode was greeted with a yawn at Intrade. So it probably was not a market manipulation.
I will be copying this post and others onto the Duncan Hunter Smart Money thread, and my future responses to this thread over these topics will be over at that other thread.
I think Tozikio and Delphi have bought contracts but that is from memory.
I'm glad to see you buy into everything you read in the "main stream" media. So I guess Hillary's got it all locked up, right?
Hey, Jonesie, let me ask you a couple of questions.
Should Hunter pass Thompson at Intrade, would you switch your support at that time? We needed to ask similar questions when Thompson was in the lead at Intrade and suggest that if he were to drop by more than 25 points, would you switch your support? No one did ask the question, but if they had, we would have gotten to hold those Freepers to their word. So now I’m asking what in your mind is something out of the realm of possibility. If Hunter passes Thompson at Intrade, will you give your support? I’m just trying to bump Hunter up to 4 or 5% at Intrade, since he is at 4% in the polls. Thompson is at ~6%. So in your mind this is not possible but in the Hunter followers’ minds it is quite possible. Will you lend your support at that time? It’s a yes or no question. Please, no hemming and hawing, no nonsense about how it’s such an impossible event that it’s not worth bothering over. Losing 29 points at Intrade was considered an impossible event when he had the lead, so please don’t pretend that one is possible and the other isn’t.
First off what polls on a national level is Fred at 6 percent? Do you mean at InTrade? Do you mean state polls? Let’s keep apples with apples as much as we can. In Trade is national in scope but even you don’t see it as a poll.
Next, no not based on In Trade. If I saw DH trending in the polls I would look into it as an alternative since Romney and Rudy hold no appeal to me.
As it is I like Duncan but even solving his support issues I don’t know how well he would do in the big chair. Some of that job takes finese I think he lacks and indeed if that was solved it would solve a myriad of problems on both issues.
So to answer clearly IF Fred were at 6 percent in the polls and Duncan passed him I would still support Fred based on current realities of how both men do things.
Would that mean I would not support Hunter if Fred did exit the race, indeed not.
As for the possibility of Duncan making a big jump on In Trade sure it could happen. I would be more impressed when it happened in the polls
So to answer clearly IF Fred were at 6 percent in the polls and Duncan passed him I would still support Fred based on current realities of how both men do things.
***Thanks for answering the question and even getting to the intent of the question. As for me, I will yield my support when Duncan no longer asks for it. And if he continues to ask for it after a GOP convention where he does not get the nomination, yikes. I have no idea on that one, but it would be a doozy.
Then we agree, we support our guys to the end.
Now lets reverse the hypothetical a bit because this would be very telling.
If Duuncan drops leaving Fred and the others, where do you go?
As with you question don’t think it couldn’t happen, he is short on funds and time.
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