Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Kevmo wrote: “Thompson is probably not a christian, and certainly has let it be known to Dobson that he “won’t dance to his tune”.”
There are many morally good people who are not Christian. I’m not speaking of morally good from God’s standpoint, but morally good as men and women. I hope Fred is a Christian, but so long as he stands for moral principles and believes in federalism (which allows us to have greater freedom and serves the greater good), that’s good enough for me.
Are those your words, in bold?
I guess you've never heard of multitasking.
I think Fred will pull it out in the end. Especially if we get to the Convention with no one having a majority of the Delegates. He will emerge as the consensus Candidate who everyone can live with and support.
(But I love Duncan Hunter).
BTW, I think Fred can carry my State of Texas easily in both the Primary and General Election.
What is good and viabel about Howard Baker, the Centrist coalition, cancelling the B-2 Bomber with Kerry, or obfuscating his history on CFR and abortion. He may be viable, but so is Mitt and Huck and Rudy. That does not make me support them.
If Hunter even sniffs top tier, you sill see a mass exodus to his campaign. I intend to see that happen.
Wow, I missed that...
So you are an expert on politics and have the insight of the Lord...
Can I ask a favor, will you inquire of the Almighty if my son will be born healthy?
My wife will rest easier if we know, it has been a difficult pregnancy....
Secondly, this is not a percentage of people who say they would vote for candidate X (a poll),
***I agree. Again. It’s a futures market, which by its nature is better as a predictor than polls. It predicted the current Fred troubles in the polls.
yet your posts keep interchanging and conflating these futures prices with polling data.
***Um, I’m done fetching for you so I’m not going to go look up those words to see if their definition applies. It’s your accusation, you back it up.
As I said above, what you are doing is misleading. I can’t tell if it’s intentional, but it is inaccurate and misleading.
***It is not misleading. It is data. Polls are data, futures pricing are data. And as far as inaccurate, now you can back up that contention by going to the Efficacy of Futures thread and proving your point. Until then, you’re just blowing smoke because you’re unhappy with the data.
pissant wrote: “If Hunter even sniffs top tier, you sill see a mass exodus to his campaign. I intend to see that happen.”
I understand what you’re writing, but all I see are visions of a knight charging a windmill...
Actually, that picture looks more like Francis.
I’m not saying that it is, just that it looks more like her . . . . . see the dimple on her . . . . . . ??
:-)
That’s fine. So Hunter has to overcome not only the ananymity of being a congressman, he has to overcome the apathy of those that actually know he is the best man for the job but are being “pragmatic”. Part of the game, I reckon.
he is christian see http://www.christianchronicle.org/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=662
I didn’t think he was a buddhist
Actually, I have bought into it a couple of times being unaware that each task could be assigned a specific priority and not realizing that the task of most interest to me could be said to be active but receive so few execution cycles that it might as well not exist. Fool me once...fool me twice, even, but...
You and the reader can just keep flipping back up through the thread through this discussion and see.
Futures prices and polls are completely different animals. Do not blur or conflate or compare them.
Well, to be perfectly honest, I don't believe that FDT is really a Christian. He's Church of Christ, which believes in baptismal regeneration, and hence trusts in a works-based salvation through the supposed efficacy of a religious ritual (contra what the Bible says in Eph. 2:8-9, Titus 3:5, etc.).
This being said, I am not voting for Lord Protector, I am voting for President, so Thompson's personal religious beliefs have no impact on my choice of candidate. His ideology does.
Surely any man who can converse with God and know another man’s heart can predict the future.
That’s completely non-responsive. ejonesie22 said one would have to read the polls upside-down and you replied with futures prices, insinuating they are polls. Your post at #70 is irrelevant.
There you go again.
***Insinuating. Nope. I looked at the post, and it clearly says “progress at Intrade”. There is no insinuation that Intrade is a poll. I wouldn’t characterize that post as “completely non-responsive”, it was very responsive. If I were in your shoes looking for a way to criticize it ( which is what you’re doing) I would call it an apples-to-oranges comparison, which would hold some water if I kept calling Intrade Poll results. But I don’t. Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, they’re both fruit. Polls are polls, Intrade is futures, they’re both data.
When looked at upside down of course;-)
***Yes, Fred’s progress is amazing at Intrade when you invert it.
Well, you system resource allocation problems are none of my business....
The insinuation is your response to a point about polls with data from a futures market (incidentally, without identifying "Intrade" as a futures market).
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