Posted on 11/10/2007 9:58:59 AM PST by Brices Crossroads
In September, I posted another vanity (linked below) in which I observed that the historical trends in this election favored Fred Thompson. Since then, his RCP average has dropped from about 22% to 16-17%. In the more volatile Rasmussen daily tracking poll, he has also dropped to 16%, about a 10 point drop from his post announcement high. In light of the above poll numbers, is it time for me to issue a mea culpa? No. This is not at all inconsistent with the hypothesis of my previous post.
Neither of the successful insurgent candidates in modern times, Reagan or Goldwater, has remained the frontrunner continuously. Reagan actually lost the mantle twice, both times in Iowa, when Gerald Ford upset him narrowly in 1976 and George H.W. Bush did the same in 1980. Goldwater was the underdog until he won the California primary. An insurgent candidacy cannot by definition be waged by a frontrunner. So Fred's poll numbers should not depress any of his supporters. In fact they ought to be a cause for quiet optimism. He remains in second place where he has been for the entire race. The Mainstream Media has bitten is tail trying to destroy him, much as it did Reagan. This has been beneficial in three ways that are not readily apparent. First, among fairminded GOP primary voters who are undecided (and overwhelmingly conservative), the attacks will be perceived as "over the top". Undecided voters in the GOP will not be sure who the elite establishment candidate is (I think it is Giuliani, principally, but an argument can be made that both Romney and McCain are default choices, in the event Giuliani implodes). They will be sure, however, who the establishment candidate is not. It is NOT Fred Thompson. Their contempt for Fred is not only a badge of honor for him, but in my opinion a magnet for votes among disaffected GOP conservatives, of whom there are many on Immigration, government spending and political correctness, among other issues.
Second, the barrage against Fred reflects a not very subtle anti-Southern bias in the elite. They despise the south in general and Fred's signature principle, Federalism, in particular. It stands in the way of their plans, which have been underway without interruption since Reagan left office in 1988, to concentrate power in Washington, D.C. This anti southern bias also plays into Thompson's hands, because it contains all the ingredients for a backlash among southern GOP primary voters. This backlash is magnified in importance because the South (having voted Republican so faithfully over the years) is apportioned relatively more delegates than its population would call for. Fred, as the only major southern candidate, would be the natural beneficiary of regional pride. His regional advantage will, in my opinion, be magnified by the not so subtle anti-southern bigotry of the elites.
Finally, the elites, and their MSM allies, are to be thanked for lowering expectations for Fred. They are basically telling GOP primary voters that it is over, he cannot win, etc. When he does better than expected, as I predict he will in every primary/caucus, it will cause a thunderclap in which he will be perceived as the victor, even if he does not place first in them all. Ironically, in lowering expectations, they are not damaging him among those of us who detest the elites and the MSM but they doing yeoman's work for the Thompson campaign. The free publicity Fred is virtually guaranteed to get after "exceeding expectations" could not be purchased with all of Romney's millions.
Just as a postscript, let me say something about insurgent candidates in general and Fred Thompson in particular. Insurgent candidates are uncomfortable and ineffective in the role of the frontrunner. Reagan was never comfortable in the role. Good, principled candidates are at their best on the offensive. Fred Thompson is no different. In his first election in Tennessee, he was at his best when he came from 20 points down to defeat a strong Democrat Congressman and to reclaim Al Gore's seat for the Republicans.
A frontrunner's campaign can be successful, but I do not believe it will be so this year. In any event, Fred Thompson is not the candidate to run such a campaign. His principles and honesty would be major impediments to such a "safe" strategy. However, in the particular circumstances the country and the Party find itself in in 2008, Fred Thompson is in exactly the position he needs to be to claim the GOP nomination. The times have indeed met the man.
Previous post:http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1900662/posts
Thanks to you both for your (over) generous comments.
While I do think Fred’s view can be reasonably disputed, I also see what he’s saying. That wasn’t my point. My point was, I think his comments on Schiavo hurt him with conservative voters, some of whom (me for one) think it is horrifying that a disabled woman who isn’t dying, and who committed no crime, should be destroyed in a way it’s illegal to kill a hog.
You make a very good point. I agree.
I am behind FRed, win, lose or draw, BECAUSE of his style. That’s the type of person I want as POTUS.
If ever there a living example of “walk softly, but carry a big stick” FRed Thompson is it.
Great Picture. Back in the 1970s, they used to day I was for Reagan BDVD (Before Death Valley Days). Your link suggest you were for Fred even before he hinted he might run early this year. (And I thought I was an early supporter) May I congratulate you on your perspicacity and farsightedness!
Did you see Thompson on CSpan as he presented his plan to remedy Social Security? I thought he was outstanding, I thought the plan was well-researched and detailed. If you didn’t see it, I recommend it.
I have consistently written positive comments about Fred. When the Schiavo issue came up, I was disappointed but I still posted positively, if not so enthusiastically. Stuck up for him several times when unfair comments were made. I like Fred, think he’s the best chance we’ve got.
What do YOU think has caused his ratings to decline? Has to be something, and I just don’t see anything wrong with his debate performances or his MTP interview, to explain it.
Thompson is regularly featured in posting on Rightwingnews.com and Red State, to name two.
That’s my point. Singing to the choir
I think you are faulting Fred because he did not want to respond to such a complicated case on the fly. He does not give snap answers, which is why he will make such a great President. His answer, that the family should decide and if they cannot decide, the state courts should decide, is the correct approach in 99.99% of the cases, and it yields the correct answer in the vast, vast majority of the cases. The fact that the system broke down in one case is no reason to scrap the system. To base your vote on a single tragic incident like this that no one could prevent, including Jeb Bush, is a little shortsighted IMHO.
Here is a video of an interview that he did yesterday in South Carolina.
http://www.blogsforfredthompson.com/upstate-south-carolina-interview-fred-thompson-11-09-07
I dont need to be sold on him. That wasnt my point.
“That’s my point. Singing to the choir”
Would you feel better about Thompson if you could find some favorable articles about him on Salon and HuffingtonPost? I wouldn’t. Of course, he is going to be featured positively on conservative websites and blogs. I have absolutely no trouble keeping up with him on the sites I visit.
I’ve asked people about Fred Thompson and they tell me he died off. It’s what others think that concerns me.
I remember not long ago on Hannity/Colmes one of the democratic strategist to say this: “A Fred Thompson campaign is the only fear we have of losing”. He expressed how many dems worried about that.
That’s what Chandler Woodcock supporters once said
Thanks. I searched youtube for it, it’s not there yet. I’ll have my wife look for a rerun. I, myself, have come to loathe TV lately.
Every time I turn it on and see a rosie o’donnell, or vincent d’onofrio type, I get mad as heck. :)
Please post for us your list of all the “Rockerfeller Republicans” that you claim are keeping “company” with thompson. Or, like so many of your past screeds against Fred, is this just something else you pulled out of your hind end?
I saw that, too.
Gave me a big warm fuzzy. :)
“I’ve asked people about Fred Thompson and they tell me he died off.”
Start hanging around a more aware crowd, if you think that your present crowd doesn’t stay up with current events.
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