Romney Surges in S.C., Florida

Dry Fly Politics ^ | 10/23/07 | Steve

[Reaganesque]

Tuesday, October 23rd, 2007...8:57 am

Romney Surges in S.C., Florida

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In vastly underreported election news, recent polls are showing a Romney surge in both South Carolina and Florida. Of course no one knows this because no one has mentioned it. We would all think that Romney was flopping around like a fish out of water in the Southern states according to some recent posts that have been written about each state. Of course, logic would tell us that Romney should not be doing well in either of these states: He is Mormon, Slick, and a NorEaster. Nevertheless, he is polling well and will likely be right in the thick of the races come January. Here are the recent polls:

South Carolina

Oct 02, Insider Advantage Poll: Thompson 21%, Romney and Giuliani 16%

Sep 26-29, ARG Poll: Romney 26%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 10%

Sep 26-27, Rasmussen: Thompson 24%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 15%

Additionally, the Romney campaign performed an internal poll, here are the results:

Romney Internal Poll: Thompson: 24%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 15%

So, in South Carolina Romney is right in the thick of the fight. It appears that the recent condemnation of Giuliani by Christian Right leaders is having a detrimental effect and that the advertising that Romney has been airing over the last month is causing some movement. However, it should be noted that the same article that reported the Romney internal poll caveats the results by saying that this was before the Bob Jones endorsement. A separat poll says that 27% of South Carolinans are more likely to support Romney due to this, but 32% are less likely. It will be interesting to see what effect the evangelical endorsements will have.

In Florida, Romney also continues to surge, and Florida is arguably more important a victory for any of the candidates. Here are the recent polls:

Oct 1-8, Quinnipiac: Giuliani: 27%, Thompson 19%, Romney 17%

Oct. 2, Insider Advantage: Giuliani 29%, Thompson 19%, Romney 16%

Granted, these polls are nothing to get thrilled over as Giuliani has a sizeable lead. However, all previous polling had Romney hovering between 7% and 10% in Florida. So a 6-7 point jump in a month is significant and he is really the only one gaining steam in these states, whereas Giuliani and Thompson are plateauing.

It should also be mentioned that all the hubub about Huckabee or Thompson surging against Romney in Iowa should be somewhat muted by the most recent Iowa poll that gave Romney an impressive 14 point lead:

Oct 10-14, Strategic Vision Poll: Romney-27, Giuliani-13, Huckabee-12, Thompson-10.

I wonder if this will get the coverage that the poll placing Huckabee within 6 points will get. I doubt it.

All in all, while Romney has stalled in some places, so have all the candidates. The race is a real crap shoot, there is far from a difinitive front runner. However, it still looks to be a Giuliani-Romney finale.

[teddyballgame]

“But the post 9-11 stuff, I really don’t get.”

Well you compare his performance under crises with say of a Ray Nagin or Gov. Blanco during Katrina or Gov. Gray”out” Davis during the power outages and it’s not a given that these politicans will rise to the occassion.

I once ran a vanity thread asking why Guilliani was leading in the South despite his oppostion to what most Southerners believed and the response I got was national security trumps social issues.

[Liz]

No problem———we are all praying that informed and impassioned Republicans that value conservatism will fight for the Grand Old Party.

[mission9]

“Then you discover she’s diehard LDS. And you realize that LDS believe that a woman needs a worthy Mormon husband to get to the highest level of heaven—the celestial kingdom. And since that’s not “you,” you realize either (a) you become a convert to advancing what she believes in your life; or (b) you realize this relationship would never go anywhere long term, so you remain disinterested.... “

FreeRepublic really should be above this level of religious bigotry.
Would you engage in a smear on Rudy, about Mary worship, or burning candles to Saints? Maybe you want to pick a fight with John McCain over Episcopalian Baptism. Mitt is not running for leadership of your faith, he is running for POTUS

[MHT]

I saw him at a small gathering and his strategy is probably the best of any contender. He plans on winning the early ones, NH, IA, MI and by Super Tuesday, he will have built in so much momentum that the rest will be like dominoes falling.

I worry that he is too cold and will make Hillary look friendly by comparison. He always looks like an undertaker. Black suit, ice blue tie, perfect hair. I don't care about him being Mormon and looking like some kid who came by your house last summer, but on tv, he comes off as really unfriendly and unapproachable. If he'd only have a drink, maybe it would take the edge off. Maybe he needs to wear a polo and blazer sometimes. Maybe being user-friendly is just not his game. However, Bill and W. were the less-uptight of the candidates in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 and they won. The Harris likeability poll is never wrong and Romney needs to soften his image.

[colorcountry]

You do realize that Mitt is a "lay" minister don't you? He in fact has been a Stake President (which is said to be equivalent to a diocese in Catholicism .)

If McCain was a Episcopal minister, or Guliani a priest then we certainly WOULD and SHOULD be discussing how their prior oaths might interfere with their elected office.

If they were ministers in the Church of IZOD, it would probably be of vital interest to Americans to find out exactly what in the heck IZOD beliefs entail. To do otherwise is a practice in absolute stupidity.....but then again why should we expect our fellow Americans not to act in a stupid and uninformed way, and vote a candidate because he has nice hair, a good smile, and tells you what you want to hear on any given subject (of course his opinion is subject to changed based upon new "revelation") SHEESH!

[Colofornian]

FreeRepublic really should be above this level of religious bigotry. Would you engage in a smear on Rudy, about Mary worship...

"Mary worship" is an "added-on" doctrine that doesn't label all non-Catholics as apostates of the faith, as having churches full of "corrupt" leaders, and as labeling all other church doctrines as creeds smacking of an "abomination" before God, does it?

...burning candles to Saints?

Same as above--this is a ritual that doesn't simultaneously condemn all other creeds & religious folks & religious leaders.

Maybe you want to pick a fight with John McCain over Episcopalian Baptism.

I don't know, do I? (McCain claims he's been attending a Baptist church for a while now...so if he's left his Episcopalian background, what's there even to address...anyway, as far as I know Episcopalians or Baptisms don't label the creeds of other denominations as an "abomination"--nor label all their leaders as "corrupt" and "apostate"...Or perhaps you know something I don't know?)

Mitt is not running for leadership of your faith, he is running for POTUS.

This situation is analogous to a candidate whose an open- doctrinaire communist. This candidate comes my way--to me whose a successful businessman who has benefitted from capitalism. He says: "You are an apostate from Marx. Every capitalistic creed is an abomination before the sovereign state. Your capitalistic leaders are corrupt. There are only two economic systems: the system of the devil (if he exists), capitalism; and the perfect ideal system, communism. I can expect your vote, then?"

Can you explain how this analogous scenario above is any different than a doctrinaire Mormon who subscribes to the Pearl of Great Price, Joseph Smith - History, verses 18-19?

[curiosity]

Well you compare his performance under crises with say of a Ray Nagin or Gov. Blanco

Yeah, that's setting the bar high!

[mission9]

Romney, nor any other LDS member in the Government, His father George, Orin Hatch, Harry Reid and many others have never, ever said anything analogous to your hypothetical.
You are engaging in Religious bigotry and on the verge of violating the posting guidelines. I suggest that you find a shred of dignity and cover yourself with it. You seem to have an LDS Bible on your desk. Maybe you should get a life, or another wife.

[Colofornian]

Romney, nor any other LDS member in the Government, His father George, Orin Hatch, Harry Reid and many others have never, ever said anything analogous to your hypothetical.

Are you telling me that they reject LDS "Scripture?" Are you telling me that they do not adhere to the Pearl of Great Price, Joseph Smith - History --vv. 18-19--the very "First Vision" which LDS regard as one of their Top Three doctrines? (their words, not mine) [This one doctrine is known as the "First Vision," the "Restoration" & "Apostasy"...and it's sure "news" to me & a lot of others that the very foundational doctrine upon which Mormonism has been based upon has been rejected by all of them...] Now ya wanna tell me why if this wild-eyed claim of yours is true, then why did BYU allow Harry Reid to recently speak at a BYU forum?

You are engaging in Religious bigotry and on the verge of violating the posting guidelines.

Sorry, but you almost sound like a newbie. I've said this in one form or another all '07 long.

So why don't you go find some LDS folks who have voted for an LDS candidate only or primarily because they were Mormon & label them a "bigot" for consistency sake (for taking their other-worldly commitments as one quality for assessing a candidate). Come on, answer, yes or no, if someone votes for a candidate primarily or only for their faith, that person is a bigot? So you're telling all of us that if a Baptist voter likes the fact that say, Huckabee is a fellow Baptist, and weighs that heavily, that this voter is a "bigot" in your estimation?

Since you sling that word around like it's nothing, it shouldn't be hard for you to throw it out again.

I suggest that you find a shred of dignity and cover yourself with it. You seem to have an LDS Bible on your desk. Maybe you should get a life, or another wife.

Well, those with the "another wife" (or wives) are right at this moment supposedly practicing the dual LDS doctrine of eternal progression & eternal covenant of polygamy. (So just wait til the MSM asks Mitt, "Mr. Romney, do you believe that polygamy is being practiced right now by faithful Mormons in another dimension and will continued to be practiced for eternity?")

(Oh, and since "blind ignorance" and "bigotry" are linked, I suggest you may want to actually "bone up" on Mormonism so you can address the subject with a bit more knowledge)

[sandude]

You do realize that Mitt is a "lay" minister don't you?

So are you indicating that you would support a Mormon candidate who hadn't held the position of Bishop or Stake President?

[colorcountry]

Nope. I won’t vote for a self-professing Mormon for POTUS

[sandude]

Nope. I won’t vote for a self-professing Mormon for POTUS

Is there any other religious group you feel this strongly about?

[ellery]

You know, I hear a lot of talk about Rudy’s values, but it seems as though Romney is getting a pass on where he stood when running for Senator against Ted Kennedy and during his campaign for Governor. The only truth talk about him seems to be coming from John Mc Cain. Why aren’t the anti Rudy “Freepers” just as hot about him?

I haven't been at all thrilled about Romney over the past couple of months; I may or may not be able to vote for him even if he's our general election candidate.

That said, Giuliani is almost 100% authoritarian -- in his eyes, there seems to be no limit to government power. In NY, he pushed the legislature to pass a law mandating the collection and storage of all newborns' DNA; he used eminent domain to seize thriving private businesses and turn their property over to private developers; he advocated seizing people's property even if they were found innocent of any crime; his police force strip-searched tens of thousands of people who were merely accused of misdemeanors such as jaywalking; the list goes on and on and on. Romney may be disappointingly big-government from my perspective, but he's no jackboot Giuliani. In my mind, the two aren't even comparable.

[LexBaird]

If McCain was a Episcopal minister, or Guliani a priest then we certainly WOULD and SHOULD be discussing how their prior oaths might interfere with their elected office.

You mean like how Huckabee being an ordained Southern Baptist minister has been so thoroughly discussed here? Not.

[colorcountry]

Yes, Muslims, Scientologists, Fundamentalist LDS, to name a few. I won’t be voting for followers of Wicca, nor would I vote for a President who consults with an astologer, palm reader, or tea leaf reader either.

[colorcountry]

I don’t need to discuss Southern Baptist Ministers. I understand their beliefs and personally approve of them, as is my right as a voter.

If YOU have a problem with Huckabee and his religion, I suggest you be as honest and open as I have been, and discuss it. Otherwise you are building a strawman.

[Spiff]

Nope. I won’t vote for a self-professing Mormon for POTUS

Do you have to jump into every Romney thread to publically advertise your religious bigotry?

[colorcountry]

Do you have to call anyone who publicly denounces a heretical religious belief a bigot?

Doesn’t that make YOU a bigot?

[Spiff]

This is a thread about Romney’s recent polling in South Carolina and Florida. Your bigoted rants notwithstanding, the thread has nothing to do with religion.

[Radix]

 

 

FYI in case you missed it.

 

Just the other day the Boston Herald made negative comments (editorial) as usual concerning Mitt Romney's record as Governor here.

 

Letter to the editor today in same paper.

 

Romney record rebuttal

 

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/letters/view.bg?articleid=1040055