[bilhosty]

Actually New Jersey polls have shown Giulian either winning or at least in contention so this might be an outlier. New Jersey had Republican leanings or at least was a swing state until about 10 years ago. The GOP started to over identify with the south and Small town America and New Jersey swung to the Dem’s. For every action there is a reaction. With a swing to a urban candidate New Jersey can and will swing back. Check this out.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1106

[TitansAFC]

Rudy911 has been on a consistent slide in NJ. He has been down near 10 points or more in every Likely voters poll.

Let’s face it, the “Rudy wins NJ” line is just crap.

[Clemenza]

The GOP started to over identify with the south and Small town America and New Jersey swung to the Dem’s. For every action there is a reaction. With a swing to a urban candidate New Jersey can and will swing back. Check this out.

Try more like 15-20 years ago. The demographics have changed drastically. There has been a large outflow of Republican leaning voters, especially from Bergen, Middlesex, and even Monmouth Counties, to say nothing of inner suburban areas like Clifton in Passaic County. In their place has come a large wave of immigrants from Asia (India and Korea especially) and Latin America, to say nothing of ex-New Yorkers. The latter group are the main reason that the Dems now controls such once solidly Pubbie towns as Summit, Millburn, and Tenafly.

It has NOTHING to do with the national party, it has to do with corruption and the collapse of the local party and shifting demographics. The GOP has run moderate candidates such as Forrester and Kean in recent years, and they have lost to the likes of Lautenberg and Menendez. Forrester and Kean would have probably won had so many Republican voters moved to North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.