Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
But as I said, the most current polls show that Hillary is beating him. It's only going to be worse if he gets the nomination. Better for him to bow out and throw his support to a more conservative candidate.
If you really cared about conservatism, you’d at least be open to supporting the candidate most likely to defeat HC
Nope, sorry - can't support a candidate who doesn't see anything wrong with the legalized murder of 1 million babies a year and who wants taxpayer funding of same.
If YOU really cared about conservatism, you'd stop trying to foist a liberal on us and get behind a more conservative candidate.
Bloomberg is a less masculine version of Hillary. If anything, he was the Republican "perot", since he's take more votes from the Democrat.
Ron Paul is the RP from Texas in this race.
I'm sure that made sense in your mind before you typed it.
1. Hillary does not need Pro-life forces so they are expendible to her.
2. Guiliani Can’t win without pro-life voters UNLESS he replaces them with pro-abortion voters which is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
3. A pro-life based candidate pushed by religious conservatives simply can not win. They do not have the numbers. They MIGHT be able to raise the money but that money will eventually end up in the coffers of the respective charitable groups after the election.
the political reality is we have four top tier viable candidates. Guiliani, Romney, Thompson and bringing up the tail McCain.
McCain is just about done and will be out.
Guiliani is not going to be electable period on any number of formulas.
That leaves us with Romney and Thompson.
With months to the first primary.
“The truth is out there....if you weed through the lies from the Rudy911 campaign”
And then we should write an editor’s letter to get the facts out.
I just listened to Rudy’s spin on Hannity’s radio show saying he would pick judges like Scalia, Roberts, Alito, and I think he included Thomas.
But since when do politicians keep all of their campaign promises??
I’m afraid many voters will fall for this, even though Rudy said:
“Presidents, going back to the beginning of the republic, generally appoint people on the Supreme Court that they believe agree with them.”
He doesn’t have to go “hard pro life”, just more so than he is now... which is infinitely more than Guiliani. That’s all he needs to do.
And he will absolutely ease off the anti-war stuff, as to not alienate the disenfranchised pro-life conservatives he’ll be courting.
Assuming that the purpose of Pro-life party is to demonstrate that a pro-choice Republican can never be elected, then it looks like it is nearlty certain to be successful, with a good candidate.
Let me know when you’re ready to discuss the bridge sale.
This is ridiculous. Giuliani could promise to appoint J. Michael Luttig to the Supreme Court and it STILL wouldn’t be enough. Prepare yourself for President Hillary.
Well, there is Fred and he is pro life, so I dont think we will have to worry about Rudy.
Nonsense. I commented on the good progress by conservatives in getting a large tax cut thru, which has been extremely instrumental in growing our economy.
Your response? No elimination of the income tax...thus, it's not conservative.
This type of response is typical of idealogues who are found both on the left and right. Pie in the sky types don't get things done in the here and now.
There's plenty of them out there, but they're not really worth debating.
Right, all that money is coming from regular people. You betcha.
I’ll tell you what... I’ll let you borrow some of my tinfoil. Make yourself a pipe and knock yourself out.
Yes, for two reasons:
Most of the current polls show Hillary farther ahead of Rudy than just 2 points.
There are a number of social conservatives who just can't bring themselves to vote for someone who is so liberal on the social issues. I'm one of them.
Exactly...he’ll be like Senator Joe Lieberman but in reverse. Lieberman was elected by lots of Republicans...
Will it defeat Rudy in the general? Probably. It would probably ENSURE Hillary is the next president.
It will also ensure that the other 70+% of the party never forgets, and will start them down the path of forming a new majority...more easily done without social conservatives than with them.
The DOJ lawyers a person can trust are VERY few and VERY far between.
Guiliani is just a typical promise them anything former DOJ lawyer turned politician. I have met a few I could say are trustworthy but they left the DOJ to go into the PRIVATE BUSINESS/PRACTICE world.
Hillary Clinton is now running as “the incumbant” and she has all that advantage.
Also if we wanted to prevent fraud, we should have been watching the voting machines from day before yesterday. (so to speak)
Well, then you should have posted one of them rather than the one you posted which shows Hitlery only 2 points ahead with no third party.
Saying someone can't win when their only 2 point behind more than a year before an election is ridiculous.
Torie is now wideawake, although his account is active.
I find it hard to swallow that people in the GOP would be so stupid to support and nominate the liberal Giuliani when all evidence points to guaranteed disaster.
>>>I am rather disgusted the the attitudes of people who are so blinded by their hatred of Rudy that they obviously don't give a rat's patoot that their arrogance is in Hillary's favor.
I am rather disgusted with the attitudes of people who are so blinded by adulation and celebrity that they refuse to acknowledge that Rudy is nothing more than a RAT with an (R) next to his name.
>>>She's banking on the Useful Idiots of the Republican Party to push her over the top. Looks like she outsmarted them again.
Rudy is banking on the Useful Idiots of the Republican Party to support him based on his mythical celebrity legacy and not on his record of liberalism well founded in his public career.
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