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Hurricane Felix (Update: Category 5 Hurricane )
NWS/NHC ^ | September 1, 2007 | NWS/NHC

Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News
KEYWORDS: felix; tropical; tsfelix
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To: RDTF

We’re planning to visit Roatan in January.


81 posted on 09/01/2007 11:55:04 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: CindyDawg

If you order the screens during hurricane season, they may arrive shortly after Christmas. Took mine five weeks when I ordered them in April.


82 posted on 09/01/2007 11:56:10 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: CindyDawg

As wife would say, they have become cave dwellers.


83 posted on 09/01/2007 11:57:09 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NautiNurse

bttt


84 posted on 09/01/2007 12:01:20 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: NautiNurse

Enjoy. Are you going to LaCeiba?


85 posted on 09/01/2007 12:03:45 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: NautiNurse; steveegg
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.

Back in August 1983 my sister and I along with our respective husbands took a week long trip to Aruba. At the time one of their promotional statements was they were never affected by any weather other than the tradewinds.

Another interesting thing we found while there was a large field of those rubbery flip flops or thongs as some called them back then. It was on the north side of the island where there wasn't much if any beach but lots of tidepools. It's probably been cleaned up by now because of their tourism industry. At the time we decided the field of flip flops was the final resting place for all flip flops which had ever been lost along the Gulf Coast.

Also, I have several pictures of my ex standing on the Natural Bridge which has since collapsed.

86 posted on 09/01/2007 12:10:28 PM PDT by Sally'sConcerns (http://www.fda.gov/emaillist.html - Class I (life threatening) recalls email alert sign-up)
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To: janetjanet998

Hoping it doesn’t hit the Yucatan or Belize, those poor folks are still recovering.


87 posted on 09/01/2007 12:11:46 PM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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To: RDTF

It’s a cruise. Belize is on the itinerary too. Visited Belize City and Altun Ha earlier this year.


88 posted on 09/01/2007 12:16:59 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

89 posted on 09/01/2007 12:17:20 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: NautiNurse

ah. Good timing, the rainy season will be over and the weather is gorgeous there in January.


90 posted on 09/01/2007 12:18:13 PM PDT by RDTF (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, but Democrats believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: janetjanet998
As usual, the mmf experimental models are hair-raising this far out.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

91 posted on 09/01/2007 12:18:40 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: floriduh voter

Boxer Felix Trinidad

92 posted on 09/01/2007 12:19:12 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: Sally'sConcerns
I have several pictures of my ex standing on the Natural Bridge which has since collapsed.

hmmmm...a premonition?

The field of flip flops would make an interesting photo op.

93 posted on 09/01/2007 12:20:48 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: floriduh voter

Righty-Oh!


94 posted on 09/01/2007 12:24:20 PM PDT by COBOL2Java (The Democrat Party: radical Islam's last hope)
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To: CindyDawg

The wonderfull Felix the Cat...

...and whenever he gets into a fix

he reaches into his bag of tricks

and pulls out a submarine-

-or aircraft carrier

-or draw bridge

Righty-HOOOOOOoh

Ah-Hah hahahahahahahahahahaha! (with pot-belly visibly shaking)


95 posted on 09/01/2007 12:33:42 PM PDT by raygun (Who knows what would happen if Technosaurus Rex met Geekzilla.)
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To: prairiebreeze

thread marker


96 posted on 09/01/2007 1:18:35 PM PDT by prairiebreeze (PUT AMERICA AHEAD! VOTE FOR FRED!!)
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To: NautiNurse

just in

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.

FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.


97 posted on 09/01/2007 1:50:06 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: NautiNurse

just in

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.

IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.

FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.


98 posted on 09/01/2007 1:50:11 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 01, 2007

...Felix continues moving westward...could become a hurricane
tonight...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of
Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Felix was
located near latitude 12.7 north...longitude 65.3 west or about 310
miles...500 km east of Aruba and about 395 miles...640 km...south
of San Juan Puerto Rico.

Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track...Felix will be passing near or to the north of the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao late tonight or early Sunday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix could become a hurricane later tonight or Sunday.

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on board the
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km...primarily to
the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the offshore
islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of
Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...12.7 N...65.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.
Minimum central pressure...999 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila


99 posted on 09/01/2007 1:54:52 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: janetjanet998

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2007

the last aircraft pass through the storm a few hours ago indicated
maximum flight level winds of 70 kt and the stepped frequency
microwave radiometer (sfmr) showed 60 kt winds at the surface. Thus
the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt...and could be a little
conservative as hints of an eye feature have been observed on
visible satellite images.

The intensity forecast appears to be straight-forward. The main
question is how fast the storm will intensify. All of the global
models show an extremely favorable upper-environment and the waters
of the Caribbean Sea are very warm. It is a little puzzling why the
GFDL/hwrf are so slow to strengthen the system. So far...the
statistical models have done very well with this storm...and the
NHC intensity forecast is just a little below the SHIPS/lgem
models. It is of note that probability of rapid intensification...
as diagnosed by SHIPS...is rather high.

Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/2100z 12.7n 65.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 13.1n 67.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 13.8n 71.4w 75 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 14.5n 74.8w 80 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 15.2n 78.2w 90 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 16.3n 83.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 17.5n 88.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 92.0w 65 kt

$$
forecaster Blake/Avila


100 posted on 09/01/2007 1:55:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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