just in
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.
FELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS
MORNING. A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER
FELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS
A HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA
AND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX
ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 01, 2007
...Felix continues moving westward...could become a hurricane
tonight...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the islands of
Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean Sea should
closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Felix was
located near latitude 12.7 north...longitude 65.3 west or about 310
miles...500 km east of Aruba and about 395 miles...640 km...south
of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Felix is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track...Felix will be passing near or to the north of the
islands of Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao late tonight or early Sunday
morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix could become a hurricane later tonight or Sunday.
Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on board the
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indicate that tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km...primarily to
the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over the offshore
islands of Venezuela and the Netherlands Antilles islands of
Aruba...Bonaire and Curacao.
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...12.7 N...65.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70 mph.
Minimum central pressure...999 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2007
the last aircraft pass through the storm a few hours ago indicated
maximum flight level winds of 70 kt and the stepped frequency
microwave radiometer (sfmr) showed 60 kt winds at the surface. Thus
the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt...and could be a little
conservative as hints of an eye feature have been observed on
visible satellite images.
The intensity forecast appears to be straight-forward. The main
question is how fast the storm will intensify. All of the global
models show an extremely favorable upper-environment and the waters
of the Caribbean Sea are very warm. It is a little puzzling why the
GFDL/hwrf are so slow to strengthen the system. So far...the
statistical models have done very well with this storm...and the
NHC intensity forecast is just a little below the SHIPS/lgem
models. It is of note that probability of rapid intensification...
as diagnosed by SHIPS...is rather high.
Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 01/2100z 12.7n 65.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 13.1n 67.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 13.8n 71.4w 75 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 14.5n 74.8w 80 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 15.2n 78.2w 90 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 16.3n 83.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 17.5n 88.0w 110 kt
120hr VT 06/1800z 19.5n 92.0w 65 kt
$$
forecaster Blake/Avila