Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
you too.
Interestingly, USSOUTHCOM is in the middle of an exercise with CETAM countries in the area:
http://www.southcom.mil/AppsSC/factFiles.php?id=25
MOD needs to update the title to: Hurricane Felix (Update: Weakened to Category 4 may regain status to Category 5 Hurricane)
if that is not too long....
“have you heard anything about evacuations of the Bay Islands?”
No, sorry I haven’t. If Roatan takes a direct hit, I would certainly hope they would evacuate to the mainland. Do you have friends/family there too?
Thank you for the link!
Reality of things to come, from the Island of Roatan:
It has begun.
The hardware store is still closed & will open at 6:30 am. There will surely be pandemonium. What 4 x 8 plywood is available is $65 a sheet. One builder wants $400 in labor to cover the windows on our little house. We have found people to help us.
The wind has picked up considerably. Felix is now officially a Category 4. All tracking shows Roatan a direct hit. It could become a 5. Hurricane Andrew has been reported the worst hurricane in recorded history & it was a 5.
We have no Red Cross, National Guard or large shelter facilities. The hospitals are poorly equipped for disasters, we have no morgue or embalmers. When the gas boats cannot get in, we will all run out of gasoline.
It is fortunate that Roatan is a tight knit community & we all help each other. However, Honduras is also one of the poorest countries in the world so there will be very little help from the government when this is over.
The birds in the jungle have stopped singing. Odd how the creatures know when something unusual is about to happen. Our 2 parrots are huddled together, saying “Hi? Hello?”
Our Newfoundland walked into the house, threw up & left, looking frightened. The cats have vanished.
We plan to board up the house in the morning, then evacuate to our store. We hope to board that up as well if we can locate enough plywood. 3 giant dogs, 2 cats , 2 parrots & us in one tiny shop- Welcome to the Ark.
It won’t be difficult to round up the dogs & catch the kitties, who are all already scared, but the parrots will be a bit tricky. Their huge cage can’t go, so I had thought I would put them in the inside bathroom with lots of food & water with the cage door open. That way, when the roof blows off, they have a
chance to survive. Then I remembered reading that when food was scarce here, during Hurricane Fifi in 1974, the wild parrots were eaten. So I will roll them in a beach towel & try not to be bitten to death.
I think I will have a “Thar She Blows Sale “....Open 24/7, just like the Gap ....
I have thousands of dollars of inventory in my house; lamps, large mirrors, home decor, with nowhere to store them properly.
I watched a big plane land today, full of tourists. I wonder, do they know what is about to happen? Why are they coming? The airport will soon be closed. The ferry to the mainland will stop soon too, as the seas become more treacherous.
We had customers in the store today, stressful, they needed a shopping fix...we had a good day..odd.
When Tony gets home from work tonight, he is making us pizza. Maybe the last one we have for a long time.
This will be quite a challenge, but we are up to it. We have to be.
I will be posting events as they happen, as long as I can.
Penny Leigh
Sand Castles Interior Design
www.roatan-sandcastles.com
(from RDTF’s link: http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/honduras.shtml
our brave soldiers at Soto Cano AB are also busy preparing for search and rescue
000 URNT12 KNHC 031919 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007 A. 03/19:00:10Z B. 14 deg 17 min N 078 deg 58 min W C. 700 mb 2678 m D. 92 kt E. 116 deg 6 nm F. 216 deg 095 kt G. 119 deg 007 nm H. 953 mb I. 9 C/ 3033 m J. 17 C/ 3050 m K. 11 C/ NA L. OPEN WNW M. C15 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 11 MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z MAX SFC WIND 96KT NW QUAD 19:02Z MAX FL TEMP 20 C 315__ / 6__ NM FROM FL CNTRPressure really climbing, winds dying. Guess Felix cleaned out the food dish too quickly.
Motion over the last 1:37 - 276.8 degrees at 18.1 mph.
Boris and Natasha? Saved by Mighty Mouse? Rescued by Underdog?
Blueberry Sheriff (?) What was his name anyway?
Snidely Whiplash tied Nell. Nell was saved by Dudley DoRight. ;)
Looks like we have 99L as well for the mess off the Carolinas.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2007
...Felix headed for northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas
northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border...and for Honduras from
Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Honduras west of Limon...for the
Caribbean coast of Guatemala...and for the entire coast of Belize.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Colombia has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Isla de Providencia. Tropical storm
conditions are expected there tonight.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman. A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 14.3 north...longitude 79.5 west or about 250 miles...
405 km...east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border.
Felix is moving toward the west near 20 mph...31 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center of Felix will be near the coasts of extreme
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras early on Tuesday
morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some restrengthening is possible prior to landfall.
Regardless...Felix should remain a major hurricane up to its
arrival in the Hurricane Warning area.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles...185 km.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central
pressure of 953 mb...28.14 inches.
Storm surge flooding in excess of 18 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves is possible in areas
of onshore winds near the center of the Hurricane.
Felix is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rain across northern
Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua...with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...14.3 N...79.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure...953 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2007
aircraft data indicate that Felix has weakened today. Maximum SFMR
winds were 118 kt several hours ago but the aircraft data shows
that the central pressure has come up a bit since then. The
aircraft reports also indicated that the eyewall had opened up to
the west northwest. The initial intensity is adjusted to 115 kt
for this advisory. Enhanced infrared images show some recent
cooling of the central convective cloud tops particularly on the
west side...and in fact the most recent messages from the hurricane
hunters suggest that the eyewall may have closed up again.
High-density flight level data plots give a hint of a secondary
wind maximum suggesting that the hurricane may be going through an
eyewall replacement...but this is not evident from other data
sources such as microwave imagery. Since the large-scale
environment is still conducive...the hurricane may re-intensify
prior to interacting with land. This possibility is reflected in
the official forecast. Regardless...we expect Felix to remain a
major hurricane up to landfall. The intensity forecast at 24 hours
and beyond is uncertain because we are unsure of how long Felix
will remain over land. Since this hurricane has a small inner
core...the large mountains of Honduras could weaken the cyclone
more rapidly than indicated in the NHC forecast.
The hurricane continues to move westward at a fairly fast pace of 17
kt. The dominant steering mechanism continues to be a well-defined
deep layer high pressure area to the north of Felix. This regime
is forecast by the global models to persist for the next few days
with some weakening. Therefore a westward to west-northwestward
motion with some slowing of the forward speed is indicated. The
official track forecast is not much different from the previous one
albeit it has been shifted slightly to the south. This is in close
agreement with the latest consensus of the GFDL...U.K. Met.
Office...NOGAPS...and GFS dynamical models.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Isla providencias since
some outer rain bands are likely to pass over that island tonight.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 03/2100z 14.3n 79.5w 115 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 14.5n 81.9w 120 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 14.9n 84.5w 90 kt...inland
36hr VT 05/0600z 15.5n 86.6w 60 kt...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 16.2n 88.8w 65 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/1800z 17.6n 92.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 07/1800z 19.0n 96.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/1800z 20.5n 99.5w 20 kt...inland...dissipating
$$
forecaster Pasch
000 URNT12 KNHC 032111 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007 A. 03/20:41:10Z B. 14 deg 20 min N 079 deg 25 min W C. NA mb 2677 m D. 76 kt E. 222 deg 7 nm F. 322 deg 079 kt G. 224 deg 014 nm H. EXTRAP 953 mb I. 9 C/ 3045 m J. 13 C/ 3052 m K. 13 C/ NA L. OPEN SE M. C15 N. 12345/ O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 19 MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 20:44:30 Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB MAX FL TEMP 15_ C 225__ / 6__ NM FROM FL CNTR MAX SFC WIND 107KT NE QUAD 20:42:30ZMotion over the last 1:47 - 276.6 degrees at 18.1 mph.
Looks like Felix is chasing after Henrietta for some reason. May we have the sexes backwards and all those little blobs following Felix are Henry’s kittens:’)
We had a tornado spotted several years back. I had a teenager, a scared lab, a mentally challenged dalmation, a cat from hell and a mean parrot in my bathroom.
We put the cat in the shower and the bird in the hamper and the dogs under a blanket in the garden tub with us. The cat was hissing and trying to jump over the glass door. The bird was squalking and tearing up wicker and the dogs were whining and trying to get in the mattress. Your friend might just want to turn them loose in the house to find their own shelter:’).
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
fyi--the highest elevation on Roatan is 900 ft.
As a side note, per Jeff Masters NOAA2 took 4 Gs of acceleration before it aborted. It was the same plane that nearly killed Masters in Hugo with a 5.6 G move, so it was good that they aborted.
Hurricane Andrew was small too, with the same “buzzsaw” shape...this is bad.
I was just looking at Jeff Master’s blog too.
Check this out:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=776&tstamp=200709
Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.
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