Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northern coast of Venezuela from Cumana to Pedernales including the island of Margarita.
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
The explanation I heard (I think upthread) was the pressure in the rest of the Carribbean is relatively high. That means the differential is there even with a higher pressure in the hurricane.
Thunder boomers are too close, getting off for a while.
Very interesting. It’s not the dry slot I saw earlier this morning, though that’s starting to get sucked in. Can’t quite tell from the loop whether that disturbance in the power is a semi-dry slot or an illusion caused by major convection showing up further out than it had been.
Still looks like Northeastern Nicaragua and Southeastern Honduras are going to get slammed. They have just today to prepare and maybe a little bit of time tomorrow morning in terms of daylight...
Prayers for the poor people in the path. I imagine there might be US aid workers in those countries as well...
Seriesly, see you when you get back.
Cooler water....
The resulting low pressure will be around the Arizona/New Mexico border on Friday morning.
This time of year, low pressures systems tend to head for the Gulf states, and sometimes suck up some Gulf of Mexico moisture with them...
But it may give you a few days to dry out...
Methane creates high pressure air masses?
Wouldn’t lowering temperatures decrease the ability of the air to hold water? The last solar eclipse I remember was already close to the dew point and the cooling from the absense of sunlight made it rain.
There is a bunch of dry air to the west of the storm and I think that has something to do with the disruption. Nothing appears to be entrained yet, but the dryness seems to be making Felix expend a lot more effort.
Watching the recon data come in via Google Earth.
116
URNT12 KNHC 031739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 03/17:23:00Z
B. 14 deg 14 min N
078 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2675 m
D. 118 kt
E. 005 deg 6 nm
F. 109 deg 114 kt
G. 014 deg 008 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 7 C/ 3050 m
J. 19 C/ 3038 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. LLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z
Does look better to the south.
Nice to see Felix appear to have topped out.
Got a link for the Google Earth data?
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2007
...Felix has weakened but is still extremely dangerous and could restrengthen... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for northeastern Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Honduras west of Limon...for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala...and for the entire coast of Belize. At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the government of Jamaica has discontinued the tropical storm watch for Jamaica. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this potentially catastrophic hurricane. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located near latitude 14.2 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 305 miles... 490 km...east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Felix is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Felix will be near the coasts of extreme northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras early on Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes... and Felix could restrengthen later today or tonight. Although Felix is an extremely powerful hurricane it has a very small wind field. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data is 950 mb...28.05 inches. Storm surge flooding in excess of 18 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves is possible in areas of onshore winds near the center of the Hurricane. Felix is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rain across northern Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...14.2 N...78.7 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure...950 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Thanks.
Very good! Thank you.
yer welcome.
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