Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The sun is shining quite brightly here in Big H, not a cloud in the sky, and you know what that means ... thunderstorms!
LOL, we’re at 70%. (Rain chances AND humidity.) They’ve explained that if it’s dark, cloudy and gloomy, it probably won’t rain, because it will be *too cool.*
If it’s sunny, it’ll get *hot enough* to bring on the storms. Sure, makes sooo much sense!
A whole page! Thanks.
I have some good friends in Houston, so I love your posts :)
Seems when I was growing up, a 70% chance meant dry weather, but you better look out when it was 20%.
Maybe *they’re* the ones keeping the ‘canes away, not I! Sorry I took credit for it, lol.
My sister and BIL, plus kids, live in the mountains of Honduras. They’re a bit inland (near Copan ruins), but I emailed her and told her to pay attention to the storm because as long as it keeps heading west, and doesn’t make a turn, they’ll be affected.
Life in a Third World country...she wasn’t even aware there was a storm. So I sent her the link to the NHC maps, etc.
Their house is solid, but have animals that will need to be put in secure shelter, even though I don’t imagine winds will be much for them, but rain in the moutains is always an issue.
The Hill Country and SA are supposed to be “in for it,” rainwise, today.
And I misspoke a little - it’s “slightly overcast” here but sunshiny, nonetheless. So there *are* some thin cirrus clouds, but not the rain kind. Er, “precipitation” or “convection” kind.
Wow, dawn, really glad you could get through to them.
It sounds like they will weather this but please be sure to let us know that all is well when this is over for them.
second eyewall showing
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
Prayers going up for your families and friends in the path of Felix, and for all on Roatan. May the storm’s effects be minimal!
try this link instead
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/ssmi/85h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html
This is why it makes so much sense. Thunderstorms need energy to grow larger. Clouds block off the energy needed for thunderstorms. Ergo, no clouds=stronger storms.
It’s all coming up from the south and heading inland, just what we need, more in the watershed. Looks like the upper coast will be dry, for the time being anyway.
according to this blogger, resort tourists were evacuated this weekend from the Bay Islands
We’ll see. AF306 is in the vicinity.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 03, 2007
Satellite images depicted some warming of the cloud tops which could be indicative of slight weakening. A NOAA reconnaissance plane measured 162 kt winds around 11z which would still support 145 kt at the surface. However subsequent to that observation the central pressure has risen a bit and the eye is not as well defined on visual imagery. So the current intensity is adjusted downward slightly...to 140 kt. Fluctuations in strength due to inner core processes are typical in intense hurricanes. There has not been much evidence of concentric eyewalls or an eyewall replacement thus far but such an event could occur...and it would have an influence on the intensity of Felix. However these eyewall cycles are difficult to time or to predict. The large scale environment... in terms of wind shear and oceanic heat content...should remain conducive to the maintenance of Cat 4/5 intensity until interaction with land. The forecast intensity at 36 hours and beyond is highly uncertain because it depends on the track of the center with respect to the land mass of Central America and Mexico. Clearly if Felix moves more to the right of our forecast it will remain stronger and if it moves to the left of the NHC track it would be much weaker. Indeed...if the cyclone fails to emerge over the Bay of Campeche...it could dissipate before the end of the forecast period. Latest fixes show that the fast westward motion...280/18... continues. The NHC track forecast and synoptic reasoning are basically unchanged. Global model forecast fields maintain sufficient mid-tropospheric ridging to the north of Felix so that...if these forecasts verify...the tropical cyclone will be unable to gain much latitude over the next few days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of northeastern Nicaragua. Data shows that the central pressure has come up a bit forecast positions and Max winds initial 03/1500z 14.3n 77.8w 140 kt 12hr VT 04/0000z 14.6n 80.4w 150 kt 24hr VT 04/1200z 15.1n 83.2w 145 kt 36hr VT 05/0000z 15.8n 85.9w 90 kt...inland 48hr VT 05/1200z 16.3n 88.0w 90 kt 72hr VT 06/1200z 17.5n 92.0w 50 kt...inland 96hr VT 07/1200z 19.0n 95.5w 60 kt 120hr VT 08/1200z 20.5n 99.0w 30 kt...inland $$ forecaster Pasch
Your sister is very fortunate to have you for a sibling.
What’s with Felix’s relatively *high* bar. pressures, compared to Dean or others?
I haven’t followed every step of this storm, is there something I don’t know? It just seems high for a Cat. 5 with such strong winds.
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