I expect the other two (NOGAPS, UKMET) to follow suit. I'm learning the hard way to just relax and trust the GDFL.
Posted on 09/01/2007 6:57:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Felix has formed near the South American
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I expect the other two (NOGAPS, UKMET) to follow suit. I'm learning the hard way to just relax and trust the GDFL.
The GFDL has been perferming very bad this year and even with this storm has been jumping aroud run to run..it is partly based on the global GFS model which has been having major issues all year ever since they “improved” the programing back in spring
WTNT31 KNHC 030558
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES RAPIDLY
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LIMON HONDURAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND ABOUT 555
MILES...890 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.
FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...14.0 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 03, 2007
...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Felix continues rapidly
westward over the central Caribbean...
a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Limon Honduras to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours. Hurricane conditions are also possible over extreme
northeastern Nicaragua.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for Grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 200 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 74.9 west or about 295 miles...
475 km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica...and about 555
miles...890 km...east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Felix is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr. A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common
in major hurricanes and are possible during the next day or
two...but Felix is expected to maintain category four or five
status during this period.
Although Felix is an extremely powerful hurricane it has a very
small wind field. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25
miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from an
Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is 935 mb...27.61 inches.
Felix is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
over the Guajira Peninsula of northern Colombia.
Repeating the 200 am EDT position...14.0 N...74.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165 mph.
Minimum central pressure...935 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Movement 21mph. I think that’s the fastest clock so far for Felix?
That’s fast for any ‘cane.
Reserved spot.
The season still has a way to go. In Boston and New York some people are wondering when we will get the next 1938 monster hurricane which could wreck the coastal Northeast(?)
Here’s to hoping it follows the dark red line on your map.
My niece and her family just moved last week to Roatan Island off the coast of Honduras.
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 03, 2007
...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Felix moving quickly
westward...
...New hurricane watches and warnings issued for portions of
Honduras...
at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the government of Honduras has issued a
Hurricane Warning from Limon Honduras eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border...and a Hurricane Watch from west of
Limon westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours. Hurricane conditions are also
possible over extreme northeastern Nicaragua.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and for Grand
Cayman. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...in this case within
the next 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of this potentially catastrophic hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Felix was located
near latitude 14.1 north...longitude 75.9 west or about 275 miles...
445 km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 490 miles...
790 km...east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras
border.
Felix is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track...the center of Felix will be near the coasts of
extreme northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras early on
Tuesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common
in major hurricanes and are possible during the next day or so...but
Felix is expected to maintain category four or five status during
this period.
Although Felix is an extremely powerful hurricane it has a very
small wind field. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30
miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft is 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...14.1 N...75.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165 mph.
Minimum central pressure...929 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 03, 2007
Felix is moving quickly westward toward Central America as it
maintains category five intensity. An Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft penetrated the eye twice during the past few hours. The
eye diameter has shrunk to 10 N mi...and a central pressure of 931
mb was measured...but that dropsonde did not quite catch the center
of circulation...so the pressure is estimated to be 929 mb.
Maximum flight-level winds were 155 kt...corresponding to surface
winds of 140 kt... but the advisory intensity is kept at 145 kt
since this mission might have just missed the maximum wind.
The hurricane is moving in a rather straight line along a heading of
280 degrees at about 18 kt...and the short-term motion might even
be a little faster. The official forecast basically extrapolates
the current direction of motion for the next 48 hours...with only a
gradual decrease in forward speed. After that a modest Bend to the
right is forecast...although not all of the models concur...with
the GFS...GFDL...and ECMWF never taking Felix over the Bay of
Campeche. While inner-core structural changes could occur and lead
to fluctuations in strength...I see no reason to forecast any
significant change in the intensity during the next 24 hours while
Felix is guaranteed to still be over the warm waters of the
Caribbean. Beyond that time the intensity forecast is greatly
complicated by the exact track that Felix takes and the amount of
time it spends over land. If the hurricane moves a little farther
north than the official track during the 24-48 hour period...it
will spend more time over water and would likely maintain a greater
intensity during that time. If...however...it moves a little south
of the official track...it would spend even more time over land and
could weaken more quickly than indicated below. In addition...the
forecast restrengthening to hurricane status on day 4 assumes that
Felix will in fact emerge over the Bay of Campeche.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 03/0900z 14.1n 75.9w 145 kt
12hr VT 03/1800z 14.5n 78.7w 150 kt
24hr VT 04/0600z 15.0n 81.9w 145 kt
36hr VT 04/1800z 15.5n 84.8w 125 kt...inland
48hr VT 05/0600z 15.9n 87.2w 100 kt
72hr VT 06/0600z 17.5n 91.5w 55 kt...inland
96hr VT 07/0600z 19.0n 95.0w 65 kt
120hr VT 08/0600z 20.5n 98.5w 40 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Knabb
930 to 935 to 929??
Pardon my ignorance — is that kind of wild fluctuation ‘normal’??
There is no need for Cat-6 or higher. The Saffir-Simpson scale was designed to account for the level of devastation a hurricane would cause in a developing country. Category 5 is considered catastrophic. There is no need to inform the public about grades of 'catastrophic.' If you have a Category 5 hurricane bearing down on you it is likely the only buildings that will survive the Cat 5 level winds and storm surge will be reinforced concrete or steel structures. And the Category system is only a crude description of a storm's power. How can you compare the Cat 4 Cyclone Tracy that had a 50 mile diameter for the system with the Cat 5 Super Typhoon Tip with a 1400 mile diameter for the system?
As far as death toll and destruction is concerned, the location a tropical cyclone hits is of critical importance. The recent Hurricane Dean grazed Jamaica as a Cat 4 and hit the Yucatan Peninsula as a Cat 5. Total deaths were under 50. The 1970 Bhola cyclone hit Bangladesh as a Cat 3 and killed over 300,000. Hurricane Fifi hit Honduras and Belize as a Cat 2 and killed over 8,000.
Since Felix looks like he is going to graze Honduras as a Cat 4 or Cat 5, we need to pay extremely close attention. It wasn't the winds or storm surge of Hurricane Fifi that killed so many, it was the rain that caused flooding. Felix will have all that and more.
Certainly, for several different reasons. First off, the measurement of pressure for a tropical cyclone is not an exact science. You have people analyzing satellite images (which has a certain amount of error) and people dropping probes into the cyclone and measuring flight level pressures and interpolating the system low pressure (which also has a certain amount of error). The NHC then takes those values and gives a best guess. Secondly, a tropical cyclone is a dynamic system. The eyewalls operate in cycles and there are a ton of variables that control how it will develop at a certain period of time. Only very rarely (about 1% for Atlantic hurricanes) does a system go into a state where it is exceptionally well defined--called an annular hurricane. In that case a hurricane will not oscillate in power for extended periods of time and will maintain its power over even cooler waters.
Thank you —
One of the beauties of FR is the willingness of people to explain things in terms understandable to us non-experts....
Not really a big fluctuation, particularly with this wild storm. Yesterday, recon dropsonde released in the SW quad landed in the NE quad. Recon aborted the mission at that point for crew safety.
Appears the models have changed to a more Westerly course in the past 24 hours...
000 URNT12 KNHC 030730 CCB VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 03/06:57:50Z B. 14 deg 02 min N 075 deg 19 min W C. 700 mb 2556 m D. NA kt E. NA deg 000 nm F. 325 deg 121 kt G. 223 deg 006 nm H. 931 mb I. 9 C/ 3051 m J. 26 C/ 3047 m K. 12 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C10 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 13 CCB MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 07:07:50Z CORRECTED FOR SLP AND QUADRANT
Looks like Felix leveled off, but not before emptying the food dish.
Henriette must be VERY popular ;-)
The NOAA Hunters are gluttons for punishment; NOAA3 is headed in now.
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