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Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part III
NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 August 2007 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/20/2007 8:12:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.

Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.

Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.

Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.

In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Cancun Radar Caution- very prone to overload with high traffic

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Cayman One Radio Nice music mix, and hourly news

Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Mexico
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; mexico
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

We’ve had quite a bit out of Montego Bay; not as much out of Kingston. Of course, the fact I’m watching the Gorebal Warming Channel skews that a bit as their man Seidel’s there.


21 posted on 08/20/2007 8:29:59 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

I would say that if you don’t evacuate to the mainland the place to be would be inside one of the structures at Tulum, which have persevered through countless hurricanes. I saw a tourism family on the Weather Channel bemoaning their fate and was yelling at the TV, “Why don’t you just rent a car and drive to Merida?” Dummies. Also, Steve Cantore kept referring to the palapas at the GW Marriot beach as “cabanas.” I kept looking for the cabanas, wondering how they could get a cabana on that narrow beach, until I figured out he didn’t know what he was talking about.


22 posted on 08/20/2007 8:31:04 AM PDT by 3AngelaD (They screwed up their own countries so bad they had to leave, and now they're here screwing up ours)
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To: bikerMD

Been wondering more about Jamaica too. If you hear anything, please let us know. Been looking at go-jamaica.com. But, am only getting general info.


23 posted on 08/20/2007 8:31:23 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: NautiNurse

This thing looks more like it will make landfall in Belize to me, and then head straight across Southern Mexico.


24 posted on 08/20/2007 8:32:39 AM PDT by gridlock (A Liberal will lick the boot on his neck if he thinks the other boot is on a Conservative's neck.)
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To: JRochelle
The media wants it to hit Texas and it wants a CAT 5.

It's just amazing, is it not. Unless something really bizarre happens, this isn't going to do any serious harm, but all I hear is EVACUATION, EVACUATION!!!!

25 posted on 08/20/2007 8:32:46 AM PDT by Bahbah
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To: bikerMD

The eyewall skirted the southern tip of Jamaica, passing about 50 miles to the south. The island was pounded by hurricane force winds and 20” of rain in some areas.


26 posted on 08/20/2007 8:32:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: bikerMD
What happened to the direct hit on Jamaica? Just asking.

Dean took a last-minute wobble left. However, the entire island took hurricane-force winds, and Kingston had a 139-mph gust.

27 posted on 08/20/2007 8:32:53 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

I wonder what that looks like from the space shuttle, it must be both spectacular and horrifying.


28 posted on 08/20/2007 8:33:11 AM PDT by quantim (The U.S. 110th Congress is the first duly elected 'Politburo' of the new millennium.)
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To: thefactor
wonder if texas is still in the path.

What worries me more than the storm is the destructive effect of all the hot air from Geraldo Rivera and Shepherd Smith.

29 posted on 08/20/2007 8:33:12 AM PDT by bikerMD (Beware, the light at the end of the tunnel may be a muzzle flash.)
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To: NautiNurse
The FOX News babe just said, "Hurricane Dean is headed for Texas." How is this any different than shouting "Fire" in a theater?

Exactly. Geraldo was on Fox late yesterday having an absolute foaming fit about the floods in OK and WI, and Dean. He was hysterical and should have been nowhere near a TV camera.

30 posted on 08/20/2007 8:34:20 AM PDT by abb (The Dinosaur Media: A One-Way Medium in a Two-Way World)
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To: bikerMD

It wasn’t a direct hit and it wasn’t a CAT 5.

The media sucks.


31 posted on 08/20/2007 8:35:16 AM PDT by JRochelle (“Never trust a man who makes toys in a land where children are forbidden.”)
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To: NautiNurse
See also the live webcams at:

http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.php

32 posted on 08/20/2007 8:35:31 AM PDT by 3AngelaD (They screwed up their own countries so bad they had to leave, and now they're here screwing up ours)
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To: Bahbah

“It’s just amazing, is it not. Unless something really bizarre happens, this isn’t going to do any serious harm, but all I hear is EVACUATION, EVACUATION!!!!”

Maybe not in Texas. But elsewhere it almsot certainly will.


33 posted on 08/20/2007 8:37:47 AM PDT by gracesdad
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To: bikerMD
What worries me more than the storm is the destructive effect of all the hot air from Geraldo Rivera and Shepherd Smith.

Line of the day.

34 posted on 08/20/2007 8:39:29 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: thefactor

Next landfall winds will be around 110 mph


35 posted on 08/20/2007 8:39:49 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: bikerMD
“What worries me more than the storm is the destructive effect of all the hot air from Geraldo Rivera and Shepherd Smith.”

That was some drama!

Shep Smith: “There are dead babies here. That is a fact.”

Later proven to not be a fact...

36 posted on 08/20/2007 8:40:06 AM PDT by JRochelle (“Never trust a man who makes toys in a land where children are forbidden.”)
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To: gracesdad
But elsewhere it almsot certainly will.

Yes, of course. I should have been more clear. I was listening to Patty Ann Brown talking to John Cornyn and the focus was strictly on Texas which, as of now, does not look like it is any great danger.

37 posted on 08/20/2007 8:40:37 AM PDT by Bahbah
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To: quantim
There have been some amazing photos and video of Hurricane Dean taken from Endeavor and the ISS. As the hurricane came into view, one of the astronauts said, "Holy smokes, that's impressive!"

Hurricane Dean photos

38 posted on 08/20/2007 8:44:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: JRochelle

“It wasn’t a direct hit and it wasn’t a CAT 5.

The media sucks.”

Everything I read said it would be cat 4 at Jamaica, not cat 5. And that’s what it was as it passed just south after a last-minute wobble. Neither the Hurricane Center nor the media can predict a wobble (still has some cat 4 winds). Are you saying you would have been happier if it HAD been a cat 5 direct hit? Or should the media have played it down like it was a mild thunderstorm? Of course if they had done that and it had been a direct hit, you would now be jumping all over them not warning people.


39 posted on 08/20/2007 8:45:21 AM PDT by gracesdad
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To: dirtboy

Very impressive.


40 posted on 08/20/2007 8:48:46 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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