Over the past 24 hours Dean moved 480.05 miles on a course of 287.1 degrees magnetic, yielding a forward speed of 20 mph.
On present course and speed, Dean will cross directly over Chetumal, making landfall just east across the bay at 0350z Tuesday morning, 2350 EDT Monday night.
This landfall would be 106 miles NNE of Belmopan, and 196 miles SSW of Cancun.
Trending over the past 24 and 48 hours has brought projected landfall 38 niles south, and ~17 hours earlier.
On present course, all major roads leading to Cancun will sustain damage, possibly severe. Surface transportation and supply from outside the immediate area are likely to be restricted.
From the IR derived energy budget, Dean looks to strengthen over the next 4 to 6 hours, then maintain or weaken slightly for the next 18.
Damn, but he’s booking. I wonder if Jumpin’ Jim Cantore’s booked the next flight in.
What great fortune that this storm is apparently gong to miss the tourist areas and strike in relatively unpopulated territory. I guess all the evacs of Cancun and PDC were unneccessary after all.