On present course, all major roads leading to Cancun will sustain damage, possibly severe. Surface transportation and supply from outside the immediate area are likely to be restricted.
From the IR derived energy budget, Dean looks to strengthen over the next 4 to 6 hours, then maintain or weaken slightly for the next 18.
That makes the early end of this morning’s Hunter run a lot more painful. I was hoping to see if that 4-6 hours would be at least partially-consumed by an eyewall replacement cycle; it had been setting up for one at 1 am.
The 11 am updates are due shortly.