| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
| Locked on 08/20/2007 8:22:08 AM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason: |
Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images/Radar
Additional Resources:
StormCarib Island locals post their observations
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Morning all. We in Brownsville are ready and watching but it looks like all we are going to get is a little rain.
How does that thing get through the high pressure system?
See 883.
Very interesting.
Over the past 24 hours Dean moved 480.05 miles on a course of 287.1 degrees magnetic, yielding a forward speed of 20 mph.
On present course and speed, Dean will cross directly over Chetumal, making landfall just east across the bay at 0350z Tuesday morning, 2350 EDT Monday night.
This landfall would be 106 miles NNE of Belmopan, and 196 miles SSW of Cancun.
Trending over the past 24 and 48 hours has brought projected landfall 38 niles south, and ~17 hours earlier.
Well, if the HP builds, as is forecast (lots of heat for SE US in the next few days) then it seems it must go to SW GOM? Logical? I’m no weatherman, though.
Neither am I; that’s why I pointed you to that sim loop.
On present course, all major roads leading to Cancun will sustain damage, possibly severe. Surface transportation and supply from outside the immediate area are likely to be restricted.
From the IR derived energy budget, Dean looks to strengthen over the next 4 to 6 hours, then maintain or weaken slightly for the next 18.
Damn, but he’s booking. I wonder if Jumpin’ Jim Cantore’s booked the next flight in.
What great fortune that this storm is apparently gong to miss the tourist areas and strike in relatively unpopulated territory. I guess all the evacs of Cancun and PDC were unneccessary after all.
That makes the early end of this morning’s Hunter run a lot more painful. I was hoping to see if that 4-6 hours would be at least partially-consumed by an eyewall replacement cycle; it had been setting up for one at 1 am.
The 11 am updates are due shortly.
new thread will be posted shortly.
Cantore is already in Cancun.
Thank you, my brother, aunt and uncles especially will need it since they’re in the city.
We were just in Cancun couple weeks ago, I hope they get spared some as well. Those hotels near the water are pretty big and hopefully they are built to sustain a strong hurricane.
I’ll hold onto the 11 am updates until then.
I meant south since landfall won’t be in Cancun.
Is this another SS Minnow like our favorite 42059?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.