Hurricane Dean Live Thread Part II

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 19, 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.

Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.

The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

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IR Image

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Additional Resources:

StormCarib Island locals post their observations

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[txhurl]

That’s what my eyes tell me, too.

[NautiNurse]

Back about 1990 I went to the US Park Service on South Padre Island, and they did not have a clue about the ship...

Makes me wonder whether the IRS received their "fair share" of the booty.

[RDTF]

Hurricane Dean Pummels Jamaica. Caribbean nation is rocked Sunday by sustained winds of up to 145 mph and torrential rains

[Clara Lou]

I think that’s how they cool off when it’s hot. The ones around here do it regularly.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

That’s what my eyes tell me, too.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I never trust my eyes,,,
6 inch clear plastic hurricane ruler never lies...LOL;0)

[SomeCallMeTim]

I don’t think so... the Water Vapor satellite shows a nice little trough that Dean could start climbing into..

I expect a bee-line to Cancun... then, more of a lurch to the NW. I also think it will weaken considerably over the Yucatan, and with some shear from this upper level low in front of it.

That said... looking at what HAS happend: Kingston has taken just about the worst hit possible. When communications are restored, we’re going to hear some real horror stories...

[eyedigress]

If that high pressure moves slightly east I could see it. The upper level monsoonal flow will grab this guy in my opinion.

[Milwaukee_Guy]

Check this link for “Power 106 FM” from Jamaica.

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

[SomeCallMeTim]

Yea... this looks like a tough one to predict to me.. Best case, it keeps moving forward quickly and gets on land.

But, it looks to me like it could slow down... then, all bets are off.

[rodguy911]

Thanks for that NN, we are getting gusts to almost 30 knots here, I guess just a little touch of what the real stuff is like.

[CindyDawg]

We are on the news. TWC is here. They seemed surprised that people are preparing on their own lol. I didn’t care that the reporter seemed to have a hard time saying President’s Bush’ name though.

[Tuxedo]

How accurate are the models? Especially this far out?

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the links. Is there a key or legend for that graphic with labels for the models and date/time of the runs?

[markman46]

and what about the High in the west that is forcast to move east in 36 hrs

[SomeCallMeTim]

They’re pretty accurate for... the next 24 hours! After that, forget it.

They are all beginning to converge now.. which is a good sign. But, really,... beyond 24-48 hours, they’re pretty much worthless, I think...

[txhurl]

Wow. Cool. I think. Maybe not :0

The ULL in the gulf is dang near stationary, and arguments for dean slipping towards it are kinda compelling.

Try to get on the air :)

[Milwaukee_Guy]

http://www.radiojamaica.com/content/view/572/26/

Several roads left impassable from Dean’s wrath
Sunday, 19 August 2007

“Right about now some roads are entirely blocked. Norman Manley Highway, Port Henderson Road that is in Portmore, Lawrence Tavern main road, we have a land slippage at Mavis Bank, Constant Spring Road is impassable the vicinity in Immaculate High School,” said CCN Metro Officer Constable Kerrian Beckford.

“In Morant Bay on Queens Street that road is totally impassable. Molynes Road in the vicinity of Ackee Walk, Waterloo Road in the vicinity of Mega Mart, Hope Boulevard, Harbour View in the vicinity of the Quarry, Olympic Way in the vicinity of Cling Cling Avenue, those roads are totally blocked,”

“We have a situation in Lovers’ Lane in St. Thomas where persons were trapped in a house, police went to assist them and they refused the assistance of the police. Also the Bath Police Station in St. Thomas the roof was blown off,” said Ms. Beckford.

Meanwhile, the Gordon Town Road leading to Mavis Bank is now blocked by a fallen tree.

And a building on Chambers Lane near Matildas Corner collapsed an hour ago.

[eyedigress]

That is so bad. It’s a wonder ManbearPig isn’t with them.

[prairiebreeze]

They seemed surprised that people are preparing on their own lol.

Maybe they'll eventually figure out that Texans take care of themselves. (And help each other out too)

I didn’t care that the reporter seemed to have a hard time saying President’s Bush’ name though.

I'm not a bit surprised, LOL!

[CindyDawg]

What is ManbearPig?. I have heard this word so much but no idea what it means.