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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images/Radar
Additional Resources:
StormCarib Island locals post their observations
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Dumb.
The Java on this thread knocked out my Firefox.
Of course, the new Firefox lets me restart “restoring” all my windows: live streaming of Leo Laporte, the Cleveland Indians Gameday, and Free Republic.
A very very appropriate statement by the PM.
Plus, the PM is a babe!
Who knew!
She looks more than a little bit like Sherry Palmer.
I washed the PM’s address through “change case” in MS Word:
My fellow Jamaicans: our country is facing the serious threat of hurricane dean — a category 4 hurricane, which could strengthen further, moving across Jamaica by tomorrow. This is a time of challenge for our nation, but it is also a time for us, as a people, to call on our great faith, wisdom, strength and spirit of community. Yesterday, i activated the country’s national disaster preparedness and emergency management system led by the office of disaster preparedness and emergency management (odpem). The parish disaster committees representing all the relevant agencies of the state, the central governmnet and non-governmental organizations are ready. The security forces are now on full alert and will issue a seperate statement on the security arrangements for different parts of the island. Ministries and agencies of the state are now prepared for the possible impact of this major hurricane on our people and our land. Relief provisions are in place for distribution through the established channels. Yesterday, i initiated talks with the leader of the Jamaica labour party on how we can work together in one national effort. I invited him to name a team of four from the jlp to work with a team of a similar number from the pnp to ensure that the recovery process is carried out in a fair and non-partisan way. Fellow Jamaicans, the weather experts agree that dean is an extremely dangerous hurricane and is on a direct path to Jamaica. This is why i am appealing to every single Jamaican to take this hurricane threat very seriously. Please act responsibly. Take the necessary precautions to secure your homes and businesses. Listen to the updates from the met office. Follow the odpem hurricane guidelines which are being supplied to all media houses. If you are in a flood prone area, now is the time to move. Move without delay to a safe place. Both voluntary and assisted evacuation measures have been activated for low lying areas such as portmore, port royal, nightingale grove, bull bay and nine miles. Jutc buses are being provided to take persons to emergency shelters. Do not to wait for the last minute to make the decision to move from where you are. Decide now and begin to make the arrangements to leave now. The national power grid for electricity supply is likely to be shut down by 10 o’clock on sunday morning. The suspension of water supply from the national water commission (nwc) will follow soon thereafter. I urge you to store water now for drinking and other domestic use. I have instructed the nwc to deliver water to areas which do not have piped water. My main concern is for the safety and well being of everyone. We have to take special care of the children, the elderly, the ‘shut-ins’, persons with disabilities; the homeless; the poor; and all those whose homes are not likely to withstand heavy wind, rain and possible flood conditions. Pregnant mothers, seven months and over should make arragements to move closer to a hospital. Please do everything possible to identify and assist such persons in your community. This is a time for our true Jamaican community spirit to come to the forefront. As a family in a time of crisis, let us put our differences aside. Forget about the partisan politics. A hurricane is looming. We are facing a national emergency. This is no time for divisiveness; no time to score political points. The safety and well-being of our people is at stake and must be our only focus at this time. I call on all people of faith, all our churches and all individuals to keep our country and all Jamaicans in their prayers at this time. Let us be strengthened by the fact that we are not alone. Prayers and words of encouragement for Jamaica and Jamaicans are pouring in from our nationals living overseas and friends from all over the world. I have already received assurances of support. The prime minister of barbados, the hon. Owen arthur has communicated his country’s support and has advised that their disasater management team is on standby. The united states ambassador, brenda la grange johnson says her country is ready to help Jamaica. Usaid already has assessment teams in place and supplies ready for distribution in the aftermath of hurricane dean. I have every confidence that if we reach out to each other, hold on together, work together and put our faith and trust in the almighty, we will weather this storm. We will come through the difficult days ahead. Our national hero marcus mosiah garvey always taught us to have faith and confidence in ourselves and that this will pull us through any crisis. Let us be inspired, comforted and empowered by the words of psalm 46: “God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble”. Again to my Jamaican family let us work together and with God’s help we will make it through. May God bless you and keep you safe and may God bless Jamaica land we love.
Amazing words....focus on “Jamaican family” is great.
I haven’t had any trouble at all with the Java on this thread. (I’m running a Linux machine, if that influences anything.) Now, when I was using XP, I’d occasionally have Java trouble.
placemarker
So as not to hijack, I’ll be brief: Java over Firefox over XP is notoriously flaky in my experience and information.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
...Extremely dangerous Dean scraping the southern coast of Jamaica... At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Belize has issued a tropical storm watch from dangriega northward to the border with Mexico. At 5 PM EDT...the Hurricane Warning for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border is replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. At 5 PM EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning from Port-au-Prince northward is discontinued. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Preparations to protect life and property in Jamaica should have already been completed. Preparations in the Cayman Islands should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Chetumal to San Felipe on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Hurricane conditions could also spread across northern Belize...and tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere in Belize. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana... Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus... Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 17.3 north...longitude 76.8 west or about 50 miles... 80 km...south of Kingston Jamaica and about 320 miles...515 km... east-southeast of Grand Cayman. Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr. A motion between west and west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Dean will be passing along or just south of the southern coast of Jamaica over the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible during the next 24 hours. Dean has the potential to become a category five hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea tomorrow. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb...27.46 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of Dean within the Hurricane Warning area. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the Cayman Islands. Additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southern Hispaniola with maximum storm totals of 10 inches. Eastern Cuba could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum amounts up to 7 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...17.3 N...76.8 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure...930 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
Very very strong.
Outstanding guidance.
I also was in 2nd grade in a town along US Hwy 281 North of Corpus Christi near the King Ranch...
My father said that an old Spanish Galleon was washed ashore on South Padre Island by the storm...
Gunshots fired Kingston
Hopefully some looter is picking buckshot out of his ass.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
The reconnaissance aircraft completed its mission...finding peak flight-level winds of 144 kt...with peak SFMR winds of 121 kt. One of the last eyewall dropsondes gave a surface estimate of 118 kt derived from the lowest 150 meters of the sounding. In spite of a gradual pressure rise...these data indicate that 125 kt is still a good intensity estimate. Concentric eyewalls are apparent in microwave...conventional satellite...and aircraft data...with the strongest winds now associated with the outer eyewall. Short-term intensity changes will be governed by inner-core processes that are difficult to time...but overall conditions in the western Caribbean would favor further intensification...and Dean could very well become a category five hurricane during the next day or two. The initial motion is 280/17. There is no major change to the forecast thinking...although model guidance has been trending southward...with nearly all of the large-scale models building the subtropical ridge westward in tandem with Dean. The upper low in the Gulf of Mexico continues westward and is not expected to be a major player in the future track of the hurricane. The official forecast has been shifted a little to the south...but still lies to the north of all the major models except for the hwrf. Although I cannot explain why...the deterministic run of the GFS is along the southern end of the guidance envelope...while the GFS ensemble members are almost uniformly along the northern edge. Because most of the guidance models lie to the south of the official forecast... some additional southward adjustments to the track are possible. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 19/2100z 17.3n 76.8w 125 kt 12hr VT 20/0600z 17.8n 79.4w 130 kt 24hr VT 20/1800z 18.4n 83.0w 135 kt 36hr VT 21/0600z 19.0n 86.5w 140 kt 48hr VT 21/1800z 19.9n 90.0w 80 kt...inland 72hr VT 22/1800z 21.5n 96.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 23/1800z 23.0n 101.0w 35 kt...inland 120hr VT 24/1800z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin/Rhome
Pretty funny since they’re as disorganized as mexico, if not more so.
Only the cops and the looters have guns, so hopefully the shots are from cops, at looters.
sooprise, sooprise, sooprise.
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