Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2007
The reconnaissance aircraft completed its mission...finding peak flight-level winds of 144 kt...with peak SFMR winds of 121 kt. One of the last eyewall dropsondes gave a surface estimate of 118 kt derived from the lowest 150 meters of the sounding. In spite of a gradual pressure rise...these data indicate that 125 kt is still a good intensity estimate. Concentric eyewalls are apparent in microwave...conventional satellite...and aircraft data...with the strongest winds now associated with the outer eyewall. Short-term intensity changes will be governed by inner-core processes that are difficult to time...but overall conditions in the western Caribbean would favor further intensification...and Dean could very well become a category five hurricane during the next day or two. The initial motion is 280/17. There is no major change to the forecast thinking...although model guidance has been trending southward...with nearly all of the large-scale models building the subtropical ridge westward in tandem with Dean. The upper low in the Gulf of Mexico continues westward and is not expected to be a major player in the future track of the hurricane. The official forecast has been shifted a little to the south...but still lies to the north of all the major models except for the hwrf. Although I cannot explain why...the deterministic run of the GFS is along the southern end of the guidance envelope...while the GFS ensemble members are almost uniformly along the northern edge. Because most of the guidance models lie to the south of the official forecast... some additional southward adjustments to the track are possible. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 19/2100z 17.3n 76.8w 125 kt 12hr VT 20/0600z 17.8n 79.4w 130 kt 24hr VT 20/1800z 18.4n 83.0w 135 kt 36hr VT 21/0600z 19.0n 86.5w 140 kt 48hr VT 21/1800z 19.9n 90.0w 80 kt...inland 72hr VT 22/1800z 21.5n 96.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 23/1800z 23.0n 101.0w 35 kt...inland 120hr VT 24/1800z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin/Rhome
hhmmmm..well, maybe my gut around Corpus Christi was wrong.
From http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml :
Sun, 19 Aug 2007 19:49:33 +0000
“Yep, you guessed it! DEAN came to visit me at home about 2 hours ago and he hasn’t stopped reworking the roofs, awnings, trees (at least what’s left of them) and the likes. Lights out ... Sending from mobile blackberry. Water also gone but Both telecoms giants still up and going strong.
Updates as I have it ...
St. Thomas - high waves, consistent strong winds. Impassable main roads.
Kingston - much breeze, minimal rain, some of my neighbors are now without awnings and satellite dishes ... Don’t ask why they weren’t down ... Everyone else took theirs down two nights ago! Reports of 12ft waves on the waterfront ... No proof but not impossible ... And I certainly don’t expect them less than 9ft anyway! Some roofs are lifting but none gone as yet ...
Manchester/St. Elizabeth - Sporadic gusts, average rainfall, 10ft waves in Treasure Beach area. No consistent presence of DEAN as yet for the inland areas though.
Ocho Rios - Winds are up, waves are high, minimal rainfall at this time, a few trees down ... Sue you are probably in a better position for this area ...
Montego Bay/Negril - waves growing, average winds, not yet scary but gusty! Not many persons on the road ... (this is good). Projections for the western end of the island are not good!
More later!
Richard M.
Sent via BlackBerry.”