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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images/Radar
Additional Resources:
StormCarib Island locals post their observations
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Back to Dean
It looks like 42055, Bay of Campeche, and 42002, 240 NM SSE of Sabine, TX are working and will be able to track Dean as it moves further west.
What is steering this thing? It’s incredibly consistent in direction.
Do we have a conspiracy working here????
Wow, sounds like Allison, too. Remember watching that big pretty house on the golf course (Green Tee) burn to the ground, surrounded by 5-6 feet of water or more, while the firemen were off in the distance on their firetruck, just helpless.
Those of us with dial up appreciate it, thanks, NN.
Did you get rain, finally?
It’s hard to draw the circle around the bands just starting to show up on the Pilon Radar but it does support the eye passing south of Jamaica.
Of course those on the North side of the island are still going to be smacked hard by the wind and waves coming in from the sea.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 19, 2007
...Outer bands of Dean moving over Jamaica...
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Watch from Chetumal to San Felipe on the Yucatan
Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 11 am EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm
watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio and la Habana. A tropical
storm watch is now in effect for the following provinces...Pinar
del Rio...la Habana... Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...
Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from west of the Haiti-dominican border to Port-au-Prince.
A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Haiti north
of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of eastern
Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of
Guantanamo.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of
Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 75.1 west or about 130 miles...
210 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 215 miles...
345 km...west-southwest of Port au Prince Haiti.
Dean is moving west near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A motion between west
and west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track...the center of Dean will be very near the island of
Jamaica by early this afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and
are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
unit reconnaissance aircraft was 926 mb...27.34 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean within the Hurricane Warning area.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to
8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
Cayman Islands. Additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible
over southern Hispaniola with maximum storm totals of 10 inches.
Eastern Cuba could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum
amounts up to 7 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...17.0 N...75.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph.
Minimum central pressure...926 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/9240966.html
Self Magazine features Blanco
The September issue of Self Magazine, which hit the stands Tuesday, includes Gov. Kathleen Blanco as one of nine women governors who “have shown women all around the world how to be extraordinary leaders.”
Self Magazine wanted to “call out nine women who have proven they are cut out to lead.” The governors act as role models for other women and young girls, the magazine’s public relations statement said.
In addition to Blanco, the list includes the governors of Alaska, Kansas, Washington, Michigan, Hawaii, Delaware, Arizona and Connecticut.
My first PC work was in 1982 and I was trained on AutoCad (and certified) and it was with a digitizer (earlier leader to the future mouse) and all keyboard. To this day I do AutoCad with key commands and the young whipper snappers take twice as long to do the same work because they are hunting around all over for mouse things to click...drives me insane....
What are the chances of Dean crossing Mexico, Baja and reforming into a hurricane in the Pacific?
I worked for FEMA then and worked that disaster in Florida. I can’t remember the name either. It occurred about the same time as the Mexico City earthquake........
Question for the weather experts:
I was looking at some of the satellite maps on Accuweather...there’s a little storm system just north of Yucatan, in the Gulf with what looks to me (an untrained eye) like low pressure circulation.
Anybody else see it, and care to tell me how or if it affects the path of Dean.
The weather channel last night was calling it a high level circulation and no problem.
Looks like Dean is having another eyewall replcement, hopefully this will knock a little of his punch out coming into Jamaica.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showpost.php?p=134017&postcount=1240
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showpost.php?p=134017&postcount=1240
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