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Posted on 08/19/2007 3:52:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is moving west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. The current NHC forecast track indicates Dean's powerful center core will pass just south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and should skirt Jamaica's southern shoreline. The storm maintained strong Category 4 wind status through the night during an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the minimum pressure supports Category 5, and additional strengthening of winds is likely.
Tourists in Jamaica crowded airports Saturday to leave the island nation. Jamaican Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller addressed the Jamaican people, asking that everyone put aside their political differences and work together in advance of the imminent storm preceding Jamaica's general election scheduled for August 27. PM Miller announced that the Jamaican power grid and water would likely be shut down early Sunday morning in advance of the storm, and strongly urged citizens to seek shelter.
The United States and Barbados have pledged hurricane relief supplies and support to Jamaica as needed. No word yet from the United Nations...
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
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Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
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Additional Resources:
StormCarib Island locals post their observations
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I just try and post a link to the large pics or animated graphics with a warning for those without high speed. In times past, there was a size cap and this seems to work well enough to satisfy everyone.
000 URNT12 KNHC 191309 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 19/12:19:10Z B. 16 deg 44 min N 074 deg 23 min W C. 700 mb 2445 m D. 125 kt E. 127 deg 23 nm F. 206 deg 110 kt G. 115 deg 013 nm H. 923 mb I. 11 C/ 3036 m J. 19 C/ 3046 m K. 13 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. CO16-34 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0904A DEAN OB 02 MAX FL WIND 110 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 142 KT @ 12:27:20Z
Will have a comparo with the 1 am one shortly.
From 1200z (0800 EDT yesterday to 1200z today, Dean moved 435.8 miles on bearing 295 magnetic.
On this course, and at this speed, 18.2 mph, Dean will pass its closest point of approach to Kingston Jamaica at 2125z (1725 EDT) this evening, 45 miles south.
On this course, and at this speed, Dean would make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula 157 statute miles south of Cancun and 143 staqtute miles north of Belmopan, at 1252z (0852 EDT) Tuesday.
On this course, and at this speed, Dean would cross the Yucatan and make second landfall, east of and 50 miles north of Mexico City at 2100z (1700 EDT), Wednesday, August 22.
Deviations from the 295 degree base track within the past 30 hours include a 6.7 mile wobble to the north, and a 3.5 mile wobble to the south.
The slight surface pressure indicated strengthening from 930 mb to 921 mb is noted.
Conversely, “the best laid plans of mice and men ...” (what is it? “often go awry”?)
Or, “if you want to make God laugh, tell Him your plans”
Excellent graphic. Thanks.
That was the funniest Dean spoof yet. Thanks for sharing it.
- Motion over the last 7:08 to the west-northwest (282 degrees) at 19.5 mph.
- Inner eyewall diameter at 18 miles, outer at 39 miles.
- Inbound (SE quad) flight-level wind not impressive, but the outbound (presumably NW quad) flight-level wind at 142 knots.
Nice analysis. Thanks!
Thanks for the updates. I’m still trying to get it in gear this morning.
Hey! Good to see ya. Funny how our paths seem to always cross this time of year, huh?!
Looks like we got lucky on this one. Let’s hope it stays that way!
Photo on the right looks like a tear in Dean’s eye.
Guess Jumpin’ Jim Cantore’s going to be moving then ;-)
Anyone have a link to the locations of Mexico's offshore oil platforms? Their Canterell Oil Field appears to be in Dean's sights.
Though Texas/Louisiana has been spared, this will probably have quite an impact on the supply of Mexican oil to the U.S. for quite some time!
Good one PJ!
Nice pics.
Money says that they'll be doing that race about Wednesday.
What's that big schmutz in the NW corner of the area near the eye in the pic on the right? Anything in particular?
Yes it does, interesting observation.
Praying for Jamaica.
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