Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[sweet_diane]

Holding my place.

And holding on to hopes that Dean will fizzle out! (it can happen lol)

[Timeout]

It's weird how I started hoping that the darned thing would veer off and impact somebody else. Made me feel bad about myself.

Not weird.

And don't feel bad. "Somebody else" is hoping it will veer toward YOU!

[HollyB]

I don’t think Cancun area of Mexico can handle another one after Wilma. Cancun just got back on their feet and it’s been almost 2 years. Prices have been jacked up trying to make up for the complete renovations that have taken place in almost every hotel, not to mention new sand pumped in to the beach which took almost a year alone.

The little island of Isla Mujeres had a bunch of squatteres on the east side of the island, apparently from those who lost homes in Cancun and some came from Cuba. Their homes are made from aluminum scraps. Best we can pray for is that it will move very fast and not stall out ontop of any town, Mexico, US or anywhere along the way.

[SouthTexas]

Station 42058 failed on May 21, 2007. It will be restored to service when it can be worked into the schedule. When the date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report.

[steveegg]

Fresh Vortex Data Message -

000
URNT12 KNHC 181340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/13:23:30Z
B. 15 deg 28 min N
  068 deg 14 min W
C. NA  mb 2475 m
D. 102 kt
E. 122 deg 006 nm
F. 220 deg 117 kt
G. 125 deg 007 nm
H.        929  mb
I.  11 C/ 3046 m
J.  18 C/ 3045 m
K.  12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 /  2 nm
P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 145 KT NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT

Relevant changes over the last 1:32 (this should be the basis of the 11 am advisories):
- Pressure up 3 mb to 929 mb
- Motion 283 degrees (west) at just over 16 mph
- This was a SE-to-NW run, so the 145-knot flight-level wind in the NE quad holds.

[Guenevere]

LOL, you would be surprised if Guennie's little motorhomemobile pulled up in front of your house and the four of us plus an almost 3 yr old and a dog hopped out :))

I definitely would not relish spending a hurricane in Key West!!!...Yikes!

[steveegg]

Like I said,...

If it weren't failed before, it wouldn't last this time. That round shape doesn't seem to like hurricanes ;-)

[jpsb]

Didn’t yall take a real hit with Katrina? N.O. got all the attention but I thought Mobile got the harder hit. Have not had a real huricane here since Carla. Almost 50 years with out a major Huricane hit, (knock on wood).

[tioga]

You WOULD be welcome though.

He stayed right on the island for the last one.......we were worried sick.

[shield]

http://kiloaoloa.soest.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=720&incr=15&rr=900&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[tioga]

Shhh, the hurricane gods are listening.......

[SouthTexas]

Neither does Gulf Shores! Have family on both sides of Mobile Bay, Fairhope and Bayou La Batre.

[Guenevere]

Same here all along A1A....(Cocoa Beach area plus south)

Beautiful several story hotels were ruined 3 years ago...

..they are just this year restored and running again...

..the beach was a mess.

[Rte66]

A resident in Jamaica wrote this about “our buoy” a little while ago:

” ... The weather channels just reported wave heights of 33ft (10m) from one of NOAA’s buoys which just passed through DEAN ... the also reported that the anemometer that recorded the last wind speed BROKE in one of the gusts from the storm. ...”

So, sounds like 42059 did “take one” for the FReepers! Now, what *time* did that anemometer break?

[harwood]

Extrap:

http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/2985/post3501187443624thumbgr4.png

[steveegg]

JP did say “knock on wood” :-)

[PeteB570]

Just got to shake your head over Drudge’s Headlines

“Historic Hell Storm Set For Jamaica”

I know it will be bad for the people on Jamaica, a lot of damage, suffering and deaths but “Historic Hell Storm”?

[Timeout]

marking place

[tioga]

LOL

[Aquamarine]

Hurricane Dean Visible Satellite

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