Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[mutley]

Small hail inbound? Has anyone seen that in a vortex message before?

[M Kehoe]

Mayor Nagen better pray that the CLP5 model is an outlier. Otherwise, no more "chocolate city."

5.56mm

[steveegg]

Small hail inbound? Has anyone seen that in a vortex message before?

I think so, but it's not usual.

I'm going to get some good rain here in southeast Wisconsin; enough that the local office has posted a flash flood watch for tonight into tomorrow.

[lonestar]

I don't wish Dean on any of you but I don't need another Rita hit. We had to evacuate for a month--tree on house--no electricity for a month. We had 7 BIG pines uprooted and were lucky that only one landed on the house. Since, we've had to cut several other trees that were damaged and died.

On top of that, I have a 91 year old bed-ridden mother with dementia living with me. Where I go, she goes. We will go again to my brother's in College Station. The home healthcare people there couldn't have been nicer last time--bringing hospital bed, etc.-- but I don't want to repeat. At least I have experience now knowing to to call. So, I'm going on R&R this weekend and will pack up and head out Tuesday if Dean turns north. (I'm near TX-LA state line).

Good luck to y'all.

[steveegg]

Here’s praying Dean stays WAY south.

[jeffers]

Morning all.

LTNS, since Wilma in 05, IIRC, hope everyone’s been well.

0900z-1200z official positions have Dean moving 15 mph on heading 310 degrees magnetic.

Projected landfall on this course at this speed will be 0200 EDT, Friday, August 24, 45 miles south of Corpus Christi, Texas, 85 miles north of Brownsville, Texas.

Actual track shifted 10 degrees north since the 0600z-0900z readings, a trend which places Corpus Christi, Texas, at the southern endpoint of likely landfall on this track.

Closest points of approach on this track will be:

60 statute miles SW of Port au Prince
37 statute miles SW of Santiago Cuba
104 statute miles NE Kingston
76 statute miles SW Havana
172 statute miles SW Key West
162 miles NE Cancun

This early, the above is little more than sheer speculation, even though based on official data, and is posted for trend analysis only.

[Rte66]

926!! 5’s a-coming

[NautiNurse]

Welcome back, and thanks for your thoughtful analysis.

[jpsb]

Turning north? Oh No!

[PJ-Comix]

[NautiNurse]

Hail obs are infrequent. IIRC, a 2004 storm included it.

[jeffers]

YW.

Working on the I35 collapse, I’ll be in and out till around 24 hours before US landfall, but I’ll be watching.

A blowhard named Dean, who’d have thought it?

[Rte66]

Best FReegards to you, too - stay safe and keep Mom comfy!

[steveegg]

Good morning. It’s been too long since I’ve seen you around, but not long enough for these hurricane threads.

[NautiNurse]

A blowhard named Dean, who’d have thought it?

Lots of hot air. No brainer.

[Ditter]

Maybe that northward shift is just a wobble.

[Hydroshock]

Please add this Tx Gulf Coast resident to your ping list. Thanks. And yes I will be getting the gas tanks, and cans filled and getting my families bug out kit together.

[steveegg]

You owe me a new keyboard :-)

Wonder what the DUmmies are saying right about now.

[Rte66]

I sure missed that bet, but kinda glad I did!

[RikaStrom]

Sorry for the delay, the power went out in the neighborhood, and then it was time to just say to heck with it. :-)

It’s definately going to be worth keeping our eye on, that’s for sure. And do a store run later today for essentials.