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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

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Storm Surge graphic

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Additional Resources:

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Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: NautiNurse

Small hail inbound? Has anyone seen that in a vortex message before?


581 posted on 08/18/2007 5:27:44 AM PDT by mutley
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To: Red Badger
Mayor Nagen better pray that the CLP5 model is an outlier. Otherwise, no more "chocolate city."

5.56mm

582 posted on 08/18/2007 5:28:52 AM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: mutley
Small hail inbound? Has anyone seen that in a vortex message before?

I think so, but it's not usual.

I'm going to get some good rain here in southeast Wisconsin; enough that the local office has posted a flash flood watch for tonight into tomorrow.

583 posted on 08/18/2007 5:30:25 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: Rte66; CindyDawg; SouthTexas
I don't wish Dean on any of you but I don't need another Rita hit. We had to evacuate for a month--tree on house--no electricity for a month. We had 7 BIG pines uprooted and were lucky that only one landed on the house. Since, we've had to cut several other trees that were damaged and died.

On top of that, I have a 91 year old bed-ridden mother with dementia living with me. Where I go, she goes. We will go again to my brother's in College Station. The home healthcare people there couldn't have been nicer last time--bringing hospital bed, etc.-- but I don't want to repeat. At least I have experience now knowing to to call. So, I'm going on R&R this weekend and will pack up and head out Tuesday if Dean turns north. (I'm near TX-LA state line).

Good luck to y'all.

584 posted on 08/18/2007 5:34:08 AM PDT by lonestar
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To: lonestar

Here’s praying Dean stays WAY south.


585 posted on 08/18/2007 5:35:41 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse; All

Morning all.

LTNS, since Wilma in 05, IIRC, hope everyone’s been well.

0900z-1200z official positions have Dean moving 15 mph on heading 310 degrees magnetic.

Projected landfall on this course at this speed will be 0200 EDT, Friday, August 24, 45 miles south of Corpus Christi, Texas, 85 miles north of Brownsville, Texas.

Actual track shifted 10 degrees north since the 0600z-0900z readings, a trend which places Corpus Christi, Texas, at the southern endpoint of likely landfall on this track.

Closest points of approach on this track will be:

60 statute miles SW of Port au Prince
37 statute miles SW of Santiago Cuba
104 statute miles NE Kingston
76 statute miles SW Havana
172 statute miles SW Key West
162 miles NE Cancun

This early, the above is little more than sheer speculation, even though based on official data, and is posted for trend analysis only.


586 posted on 08/18/2007 5:36:20 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: NautiNurse

926!! 5’s a-coming


587 posted on 08/18/2007 5:38:42 AM PDT by Rte66
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To: jeffers

Welcome back, and thanks for your thoughtful analysis.


588 posted on 08/18/2007 5:38:57 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: jeffers

Turning north? Oh No!


589 posted on 08/18/2007 5:40:07 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: NautiNurse

590 posted on 08/18/2007 5:40:17 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Join the DUmmie FUnnies PING List for the FUNNIEST Blog on the Web)
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To: mutley

Hail obs are infrequent. IIRC, a 2004 storm included it.


591 posted on 08/18/2007 5:42:08 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

YW.

Working on the I35 collapse, I’ll be in and out till around 24 hours before US landfall, but I’ll be watching.

A blowhard named Dean, who’d have thought it?


592 posted on 08/18/2007 5:42:21 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: lonestar

Best FReegards to you, too - stay safe and keep Mom comfy!


593 posted on 08/18/2007 5:43:18 AM PDT by Rte66
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To: jeffers

Good morning. It’s been too long since I’ve seen you around, but not long enough for these hurricane threads.


594 posted on 08/18/2007 5:43:45 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: jeffers
A blowhard named Dean, who’d have thought it?

Lots of hot air. No brainer.

595 posted on 08/18/2007 5:45:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: jeffers
Maybe that northward shift is just a wobble.
596 posted on 08/18/2007 5:46:29 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: NautiNurse

Please add this Tx Gulf Coast resident to your ping list. Thanks. And yes I will be getting the gas tanks, and cans filled and getting my families bug out kit together.


597 posted on 08/18/2007 5:46:40 AM PDT by Hydroshock ("The Constitution should be taken like mountain whiskey -- undiluted and untaxed." - Sam Ervin)
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To: PJ-Comix
You owe me a new keyboard :-)

Wonder what the DUmmies are saying right about now.

598 posted on 08/18/2007 5:47:08 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: PeteB570; SouthTexas

I sure missed that bet, but kinda glad I did!


599 posted on 08/18/2007 5:48:58 AM PDT by Rte66
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To: shield

Sorry for the delay, the power went out in the neighborhood, and then it was time to just say to heck with it. :-)

It’s definately going to be worth keeping our eye on, that’s for sure. And do a store run later today for essentials.


600 posted on 08/18/2007 5:49:48 AM PDT by RikaStrom (The number one rule of the Kama Sutra is that you both be on the same page.../Exeter 051705)
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