Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[steveegg]

It just has to go in the next 41 minutes for me to win.

[SouthTexas]

Sleep well!

[Petronski]

So the surf is “freshening a bit?”

[tcrlaf]

LAtest from the buooy is 20+ foot waves!!

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 20.3 ft

[SouthTexas]

Looks like it!

We were taking odds on how long that bouy would last. :)

[tcrlaf]

Interesting radar look of St. Croix’s near miss...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

[CindyDawg]

One model has it doing that. I don’t even want Mexico to get it though. In some ways it is even harder on them. The strip would be better, I think. If it doesn’t die then we will have to just deal with it. I’m thinking maybe it’s time to get the malt balls though:’)

[11th_VA]

Dean a Category 4 storm, still growing

By JACQUELINE CHARLES, TRENTON DANIEL AND MARTIN MERZER mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com

KINGSTON, Jamaica -- Already a killer storm, Hurricane Dean mushroomed in size and intensity Friday night as it took aim at some of the Caribbean's largest and most populous targets, including Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. Officials urged residents there and in the tiny Cayman Islands to begin preparing. Tourists were advised to return home, if they can. Forecasters warned that the Category 4 monster with winds of 145 mph could grow even stronger -- possibly becoming a top-scale Category 5.

''I'm a little panicky,'' said Kerns Olibrice, 28, who lives in the Port-au-Prince suburb of Kenscoff in Haiti.

Meanwhile, emergency managers in the United States began worrying that the storm could reach the Gulf of Mexico next week -- and then strike the Gulf Coast. Someplace.

''We are coming into the peak part of the season,'' said Mike Stone, a spokesman for Florida's Emergency Management Division. ``Now is a good time to look at your plan.''

snip

http://www.miamiherald.com/574/story/207290.html

This satellite image shows Hurricane Dean intensifying in the Atlantic off the coast of South America Thursday.

Wow - here we go again ...

[alancarp]

That buoy be as close as 30-40 miles to the eye wall at this point.

[11th_VA]

Almost time to call Dan out of retirement ...

[alancarp]

“That buoy MAY be...” (oy; time to cash it in for the night, obviously).

[SouthTexas]

Yeah, I know what you mean about Mexico.

Time to stock up on whatever your favorites are!

[SouthTexas]

Just about, I wanted to see one more report, but don’t know if I’m going to make it. LOL

[CindyDawg]

My husband has been on the phone all evening. It looks like we may start evacuating our nursing homes (and we have a bunch) by Monday if things don’t change.

[yorkie]

Malt balls - I’m munching down on them right now, as I am watching the weather channel. This is going to be HUGE!

Be safe, FRiends! Be prepared for Sunday and Monday - and keep your angels close.

[yorkie]

Where are you? (I haven’t read all the thread)

[SouthTexas]

Don't think we'll know until after it collides with the Yucatan. Bouy 42059 is still up:

[nwctwx]

I think it’s a good idea to keep Erin’s track from the Yucatan to TX in mind. The prevailing summer pattern has tended to send moisture into certain areas around the long term high pressure locations.

It’s so far out right now, minor deviations over the next 12-24hr make a huge difference at day 5. If I had to choose a landfall point right now I’d go within 200 miles either direction of Erin’s, with more error expected on the north side due to the angle of the coast.

What it does while passing the remainder of the obstacles on its course to the GOM is extraordinarily crucial. Whatever this looks like now, it could very well be a small piece of that by the time it threatens the U.S.

[SouthTexas]

[SouthTexas]

Thanks, center the target on me again!

Glad you're here, but I'm done for the night, manana.