Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[dirtboy]

Are you noticing that upper low just off the East Coast of Florida - the one slowly drifting westward on the GOES WV loop?

I wonder if that is what caused such a dramatic shift in the GFDL?

[cll]

It’s 300 miles of my location and we’re already getting some gusts.

[4everontheRight]

“Hey, at least she showed more foresight and initiative than the average New Orleans resident.”
They are still waiting for help instead of cleaning up their own and that includes their politicians!!!

Mississippi’s Governor is on it already.....

“Barbour said people should think about where they will go if an evacuation is ordered and how they’ll travel. He said people should make sure they have fuel, water, and a source of communication if electricity is lost.

“No government is big enough to do everything for everybody,” Barbour said.”

Amen Haley...Amen!!!!

[tutstar]

I noticed it. I just told my daughter that if a puny little thing like that can develop right off the coast then how is it the hurricane dudes think the high pressure system will keep Dean to the south? Maybe the high is breaking down. That would surely have an affect on the forecast.

[Texas2step]

Maybe the high is breaking down.

I don't think it is, though. North-East Texas has had very little rain from Erin(?). It's been coming this way for a couple of days now and then just disappears right before it gets her. Just south of us has gotten some rain (that looked like it was headed straight for us) and we've only gotten trace, along with some light wind.

I don't think the high is going anywhere.

[American Quilter]

It’s 300 miles of my location and we’re already getting some gusts.

Good luck to you, cll!

[NautiNurse]

Puerto Rico radar shows a band just about to cross the east coast.

[Hang'emAll]

Actually the first thing I’m doing when I get down there is fill-up my tank - 450 mile capacity. So I can get out in time if necessary.

[American Quilter]

That’s an excellent graphic, NN.

[cll]

Thanks! Fortunately, we build our homes like bunkers. Not very attractive, but practical.

[American Quilter]

Fortunately, we build our homes like bunkers. Not very attractive, but practical.

I hope PR is far enough north of the track to escape damage. Please keep us informed if you can do so without endangering yourself!

[NautiNurse]

Pressure dropping at buoy 42059:

[steveegg]

Thanks! Fortunately, we build our homes like bunkers. Not very attractive, but practical.

There's a certain attractiveness to practicality.

[sweet_diane]

no no no no...not liking that picture.

[sweet_diane]

no no no no...not liking that picture.

[NautiNurse]

You can see Dean's eye on the Long Range Radar

[dirtboy]

Looks like that upper low is the wildcard in the long-range forecast:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=753&tstamp=200708

We're fairly confident of the 1-2 day forecast, which has Dean headed west to west-northwest over the Central Caribbean, very close to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Western Caribbean. After that, things become murkier. The latest 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF computer models all show Dean hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and continuing on into the Gulf of Mexico towards a second landfall near or south of the Texas border. The HWRF run is slower, and does not take Dean to the coast at the end of its forecast period. The big outlier is the GFDL model, which now takes Dean northwest into central Louisiana. Which model is correct? The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Which model should we trust?

[cll]

Jet Blue has cancelled tomorrow’s flights to the City of Ponce (southern part of the island). Most other airlines have loosened their change and cancellation policies for flights to and from most cities and islands throughout the region.

[RDTF]

Drudge headline: HELL STORM SET FOR JAMAICA

[numberonepal]

“No government is big enough to do everything for everybody,” Barbour said.”

I've said since Katrina that I thought Barbour could be the right man for the White House. He's a good leader with a git 'er dun attitude.