I wonder if that is what caused such a dramatic shift in the GFDL?
I noticed it. I just told my daughter that if a puny little thing like that can develop right off the coast then how is it the hurricane dudes think the high pressure system will keep Dean to the south? Maybe the high is breaking down. That would surely have an affect on the forecast.
That could be, one of local forcasters here in Jacksonville said as that cut off low, moved west it would seal Dean on a southern route keeping Florida free of Dean.