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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Far West Harris County...burb of Houston, TX
We were wondering about this yesterday. I have no idea what is news anymore and what isn’t. Very confusing. I guess they figure if you need to know, you know where to go.
When the valley is in good shape with rainfall...the crops are the best anywhere.
It may be they’re waiting to put it in breaking til it gets closer to the US..
000 URNT12 KNHC 171740 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 17/17:17:00Z B. 14 deg 46 min N 063 deg 16 min W C. NA mb 2763 m D. 110 kt E. 011 deg 010 nm F. 107 deg 124 kt G. 011 deg 011 nm H. 966 mb I. 7 C/ 3046 m J. 19 C/ 3040 m K. 9 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C17 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28 MAX FL WIND 124 KT N QUAD 17:13:30 Z
Nice area. Country living/Houston shopping:’) We just can’t handle heavy rains period. It drains fast but floods first.
They’re taking their time with the intermediate advisory. This usually means a significant update.
We have a loooong way to go to get towards this being another Katrina....
That said, model trends continue to go N which brings this into more of a U.S. landfall.
GFDL now has a central LA hit as a Cat 4.
We’re not getting much off Erin, but when we do the streets are rivers in minutes up here. The clay based soil, from what I’m told doesn't’t allow the water to soak in and down.
I think you’ve nailed it, we can’t even handle a TS now.
Which is why it will probably hit us. Ala Beulah and Allen.
...Dean strengthens to a major hurricane with 125 mph winds...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Martinique...Dominica...
and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. The warning will likely be
discontinued later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in
effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Saba...St.
Eustatius...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...St.
Maarten...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for St. Lucia.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to the Haiti/Dominican
Republic border. A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect from Cabo
Beata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...should closely monitor the progress
of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 145 PM AST...1745z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 14.8 north...longitude 63.6 west or about 175 miles...
280 km...west of Martinique and about 300 miles...480 km...southeast
of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Dean is moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue. On this track...Dean will move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea today.
Satellite images and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that Dean has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds
are now 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a major
category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185
miles...295 km. Bands of heavy squalls are still affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles and are approaching Puerto Rico and the U.S.
And British Virgin Islands.
Latest estimated minimum central pressure by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 961 mb...28.38 inches.
Storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from Dean over
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...with maximum amounts up to
5 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
expected in the Lesser Antilles...with isolated maximum amounts of
10 inches in mountainous areas. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 145 PM AST position...14.8 N...63.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure...961 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila/Mainelli
FNC just reported the first death from Hurricane Dean: a man on St. Lucia. (Sorry - that’s all the information they gave).
It makes me feel kinda guilty to wish a hurricane off on the poor Mexicans, but since my wishing has no affect one way or the other, I will continue to wish. LOL!
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
I don’t like that. Isn’t the GDFL usually fairly accurate?
It’s even getting ridiculous here. I’ve got my eye on an area further west north of 1-10. People have forgotten about this area. Folks are moving westward and skipping this wonder place. Since I want people to continue to forget this place...I’ll not tell. ;o)
961 mb? I should’ve figured the 966 from that vortex message above was a typo.
Sounds like trouble’s comin.
Dean still has his boogies shoes on, he seems to be getting faster.
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