just glancing the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula,
and a Cat 3 as it enters the GOM.
Current pressure down to 964 mb, winds increased to 105 mph,
forward direction 21 mph.
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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Oh, gee whiz, no Joe Bastardi? Let me guess, his ego got in the way of his forcasts?
URNT12 KNHC 171433 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 17/14:17:00Z B. 14 deg 34 min N 062 deg 23 min W C. NA mb 2807 m D. 70 kt E. 104 deg 008 nm F. 218 deg 082 kt G. 107 deg 008 nm H. 964 mb I. 12 C/ 3029 m J. 18 C/ 3027 m K. 10 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C17 N. 12345/2 O. 0.02 / NA nm P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 16 MAX FL WIND 100 KT E QUAD 12:33:00 Z RAGGED EYEWALL
Like I said; I shouldn’t have come back from vacation ;-)
...Dean moving away from Lesser Antilles and strengthening...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Martinique...Dominica... and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. The warning will likely be discontinued later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Saba...St. Eustatius...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...St. Maarten...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...the Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has changed the tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning along the South Coast from Cabo engano to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cabo Beata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border.
At 11 am AST...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
At 11am AST...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies has been discontinued.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands...should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.6 north...longitude 62.6 west or about 105 miles... 170 km...west of Martinique and about 350 miles...565 km...southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. This track will keep Dean over the eastern Caribbean Sea today.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Dean is forecast to become a major hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.
Latest minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was 964 mb...28.47 inches.
Storm total amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from Dean over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...with maximum amounts up to 5 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected in the Lesser Antilles...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches in mountainous areas. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...14.6 N...62.6 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure...964 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Avila/Mainelli
Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure...964 mb.
The official forecast follows the middle of the guidance envelope with a slight adjustment to the north due to the GFDL and UKMET models. The GFDL solution insists on a more west-northwest track through the Yucatan Channel...bringing Dean into the northwest Gulf of Mexico as a stronger hurricane than indicated in the official forecast. It should be noted that guidance for day 4 and 5 is more uncertain today than yesterday.
The trend keeps shifting slightly to the right. Not good.
the center of Dean crossed the Lesser Antilles this morning between St. Lucia and Martinique as indicated by the Martinique radar. At 0842 UTC...the meteorological service of Martinique reported sustained winds of 66 knots with gusts to 90 knots. An Air Force plane reached the hurricane and measured a minimum pressure of 964 mb...flight level winds of 100 knots and a closed eyewall. The cloud pattern has become better organized since yesterday with plenty of banding features and outflow in all quadrants. Latest visible image shows an eye feature. Both satellite presentation and data from the SFMR on the plane support an initial intensity of 90 knots. The official intensity forecast calls for strengthening since guidance suggests that the shear will be low across the Caribbean. Dean could become a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches the western Caribbean where the ocean heat content is the highest. In fact the official forecast is a consensus of SHIPS...GFDL and hwrf models.
The motion of Dean...280/18...continues to be controlled by a strong ridge to the north. A mid- to upper-level low over the western Bahamas is expected to run westward ahead of the hurricane and the only possible influence on the track of the hurricane is to add a small west-northwestward component in the later periods. The official forecast follows the middle of the guidance envelope with a slight adjustment to the north due to the GFDL and UKMET models. The GFDL solution insists on a more west-northwest track through the Yucatan Channel...bringing Dean into the northwest Gulf of Mexico as a stronger hurricane than indicated in the official forecast. It should be noted that guidance for day 4 and 5 is more uncertain today than yesterday.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/1500z 14.6n 62.6w 90 kt 12hr VT 18/0000z 15.0n 65.5w 100 kt 24hr VT 18/1200z 15.8n 69.0w 105 kt 36hr VT 19/0000z 16.7n 72.3w 110 kt 48hr VT 19/1200z 17.5n 75.5w 120 kt 72hr VT 20/1200z 19.5n 82.0w 130 kt 96hr VT 21/1200z 21.5n 88.0w 100 kt...inland 120hr VT 22/1200z 24.0n 94.0w 105 kt
$$ forecaster Avila
96 hr forecast intensity jumped from 125 to 130 kts, or 150 mph - getting very close to Cat 5. Another bad trend in the long-term forecast.
If Dean passes instead through the Yucatan Channel, yikes. We have a near-Allen.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Dean should be north of Allen following the Yucatan I believe.
Allen went through the Antilles a bit further south and was a bit stronger at the time, but then jogged to the right and went just north of Jamaica.
I was living in Houston at the time. Thank God that monster veered a bit left at the last minute and stalled out for a short while, weakened, and then went inland over the King Ranch.
Why such a wide gap in the models?
Watching. (Bump)
Different run times and an array of forecast quality.
Yikes! I can’t read the time or date of the projections.
Mexico
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